Newcastle United experienced a relatively surprising campaign after a summer of turmoil.
After selling arguably their two best players last summer, the Toon managed to finish 13th in the Premier League table.
Performance numbers beneath the surface mostly portrayed the Magpies in a negative light, yet Steve Bruce's men were able to secure positive results more frequently than expected.
There are several reasons behind United's overperformance in comparison to the numbers, but one of the key factors behind the ability of the Magpies to avoid relegation quite comfortably was Martin Dubravka.
To capture his contribution, let's apply Expected Goals (xG).
xG is a performance indicator which offers an insight into the likelihood of a shot being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their attempts.
The metric can also be applied to goalkeepers; post-shot xG specifically focuses on shots that hit the target and takes into account the quality and trajectory of the shot, which is why it can be applied to shot-stopping.
Aaron Ramsdale, for example, was expected to concede 62.1 goals in the Premier League for Bournemouth this season and he actually shipped 62 (excluding own goals). That essentially means he saved shots to a very average standard. Not good, not bad, just perfectly normal.
Dubravka, on the other hand, was expected to concede 66 goals yet he allowed only 56 to be scored (excluding own goals); he overperformed his expected figures by 10 goals which was the best in the division.
Vicente Guaita placed second, having overperformed by 7.4 goals, which showcases how impressive Dubravka's figure of 10 was.
Those numbers suggest he saved shots to an above average level. If the Toon had conceded those 10 goals, it's likely they would have considerably worse results to show for their performances.
Ultimately, although goalkeepers aren't typically recognised as match-winners, Dubravka's contribution towards United's ability to win games over the past year has been incredibly valuable.
He's a primary reason why the Magpies finished 10 points above the relegation zone rather than in amongst the chaos of the final few fixtures.
