If there are two elements New Zealand will summon up for their heavyweight quarter-final against Ireland, they are superior World Cup experience and fearless spark.
On paper Ireland have reason to believe. Their New Zealand-born coach, Joe Schmidt, has the much more settled side, with Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray starting their 56th Test together, while 12 of this Irish team started in their defeat of the All Blacks in Dublin 12 months ago. That 16-9 victory was Ireland’s second over the world champions in the past three attempts.
Yet where the All Blacks moved swiftly to significantly evolve their game after Dublin, Ireland stood still, losing twice to England and once each to Wales and Japan this year.
It is no coincidence the All Blacks team who will run out at Tokyo Stadium on Saturday feature nine positional changes from their last Irish defeat.
As their assistant coach, Ian Foster, stated, the twin twin-playmaker partnership of Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett leaves New Zealand’s attacking structure barely recognisable from last season.
“We always remember our losses pretty clearly but you try and learn from them and move forward,” he said. “It’s interesting when you look at the number of things we’ve changed in the past 12 months and a lot of those are because of some performances last year we weren’t totally proud of. You learn your lessons and then you evolve things.”
The coach Andy Farrell’s defensive line-speed that has conceded two tries from four games in Japan remains Ireland’s chief weapon but the unburdened way the All Blacks will approach this knockout tie promises to test his system at every turn.
Forecast rain should aid Ireland’s conservative ball retention, box-kicking game-plan but it will not discourage New Zealand’s intent to showcase their vast array of skill.
Two tries in six minutes ultimately put the Springboks away in their opening World Cup assignment. That blitz saying everything about how difficult they are to contain.
Ireland must stymie myriad attacking threats, particularly from the back three comprising Barrett and the youthful Crusaders finishers Sevu Reece and George Bridge. “Our challenge going into a big game is to not dampen that confidence,” Foster added. “We’ve got to be smart, there’s potential rain, we’re playing a team that likes to suffocate you. We’ve got to respect all those elements but we’ve also got to do what we want to do well.”
The All Blacks are unbeaten through 17 World Cup matches stretching back 12 years, while Ireland have lost all six quarter-finals they have contested but Foster does not believe it would make the All Blacks’ task more straightforward. “We’ve been here before and we’ve used that experience,” he said. “It doesn’t make it any easier – it just gives you the knowledge of what’s at stake. They’ve been in a lot of quarter-finals, too.”
Anything can happen at the knockout stage of the competition. Cards could prove costly, and it is here Sexton’s reference to the brutal manner of New Zealand’s last victory over Ireland will heighten tension. “I’m sure they will bring the physical edge they always do,” he said. “That 2016 game in Dublin was a turning point in terms of law changes. Some of those things would be red cards now. That won’t happen again.”
