1) New Zealand
Eighteen wins on the spin and counting. The All Blacks will not stay unbeaten forever but sometimes it feels that way. Over the next month they will face Ireland (twice), Italy and France and, barring accidents, it should be 22 straight victories by the time they fly home. The head coach, Steve Hansen, and his lieutenants deserve credit for the impressive manner in which the team has refocused and developed since retaining the Webb Ellis Cup last year. Who said Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, Ma’a Nonu et al were irreplaceable? In the shape of Aaron and Ben Smith, Kieran Read, Dane Coles and Beauden Barrett, the All Blacks have the five best, most influential players in the world. The challenge for their opponents is not just to beat them; they have to catch them first. No team has more accurate skills on the run, no one capitalises on errors with such speed and alacrity. Aside from the recent pathetic clown caricatures of rival coaches, this has been a year for all Kiwis to be proud of. Keep it going and, potentially, 2017 could be better still.
World Rugby ranking: 1
2) England
An awful lot of water has passed under Richmond Bridge since England bowed out of the 2015 World Cup in the pool stages. The no-nonsense Eddie Jones was always likely to make an impact but nine wins out of nine, with power to add, has propelled his side above everyone bar the invincible All Blacks. No one is pretending England are the complete article – they conceded five tries to Australia in Sydney last time out in a 44-40 thriller – but Jones has toughened them up mentally and demanded higher standards. Four consecutive Twickenham games against South Africa, Fiji, Argentina and Australia now stand between Dylan Hartley’s squad and an undefeated calendar year; if they want to take the next step they should be publicly looking to win all four. Owen Farrell and the Vunipola brothers will have key roles in the absence of the injured Maro Itoje, George Kruis, James Haskell, Anthony Watson, Jack Nowell and Manu Tuilagi and England’s strength in depth is about to be tested in earnest. If Jones’s pack crank up the power and play at pace, certain opponents will struggle to live with them.
World Rugby ranking: 2
3) Ireland
A Lions year tends to rouse the Celtic nations; Wales and Ireland have won the past three Six Nations titles immediately before a Lions expedition. Kicking off in Chicago against the rampant All Blacks is not the easiest assignment but there is a sense of Irish rugby regaining a little bit of confidence after another frustrating World Cup. Even New Zealand only won by the width of a fag-paper on their last visit to Dublin in 2013 and the return to fitness of Jonathan Sexton, Sean O’Brien, Peter O’Mahony and Iain Henderson will strengthen them in key areas this winter. Only Sexton will be involved at Soldier Field but the exciting uncapped Leinster youngsters Joey Carbery and Garry Ringrose should see some game time off the bench. The shrewd Joe Schmidt has agreed to remain in charge until 2019 and the presence of England’s former assistant Andy Farrell on the Irish management team will further stiffen the collective sense of resolve.
World Rugby ranking: 6
4) Wales
Warren Gatland has temporarily stepped aside as head coach to concentrate on his Lions duties, leaving Rob Howley to guide the Welsh team against Australia, Argentina, Japan and South Africa. In years past they might have viewed a couple of wins as reasonable; now there is a good case for arguing they should win all four games. Wales will be without four Lions certs in Sam Warburton, Alun Wyn Jones, Taulupe Faletau and Liam Williams for the visit of the Wallabies on Saturday but still have a largely settled look, aside from the talented Ross Moriarty at No8 and the up-and-coming fly-half Sam Davies on the bench. Davies will hope to start at least one game this autumn and the Ospreys teenager Keelan Giles is another emerging prospect. The return of Leigh Halfpenny ensures an embarrassment of goalkicking riches and Howley is hardly short of personal incentive. The bad news is that Wales often flatter to deceive in November and one or two key men are arguably past their best.
World Rugby ranking: 5
5) Australia
Still ranked third globally according to World Rugby but wobbling at the moment. An unprecedented 3-0 home series defeat to England was painful enough and New Zealand have picked mercilessly at the carcass over the past couple of months. About to meet Wales, Scotland, France, Ireland and England in successive weeks; if they underperform in Cardiff and pick up a few more injuries it is not inconceivable they could lose all five.
World Rugby ranking: 3
6) South Africa
Either in freefall or a steady downward glide, depending on whom you believe. Either way, two more defeats to England and Wales will make this statistically the Boks’ worst year in the professional era. They still have some fine individual players but many of their overseas-based stars are effectively now playing all year round. Going down 57-15 to New Zealand in Durban was an insult to South African manhood but they have also lost to Ireland and Argentina this year.
World Rugby ranking: 4
7) Argentina
Had the Pumas not run out of puff in the Rugby Championship they would be above the Springboks, whom they beat in Salta in August. They may also have to tweak their madcap gameplan to start winning consistently against higher-ranked teams, but Daniel Hourcade’s side are visibly on the up. Beating Japan and Scotland and losing narrowly to Wales and England would be par for the course at the end of a long year as they adhere to their policy of omitting foreign-based players such as Juan Imhoff and Marcos Ayerza.
World Rugby ranking: 9
8) France
If ever a team needs to restore national faith it is France. Fail to rouse themselves swiftly and they could end up dropping out of the world’s top-eight nations, a major issue with the pool draw seedings for the 2019 World Cup due to be based on where sides are ranked at the end of the 2017 Six Nations. Guy Novès’s team are up against Samoa, Australia and New Zealand and need to win at least two of their three Tests to regain some momentum.
World Rugby ranking: 7
9) Scotland
This is an equally big autumn for the Scots; Vern Cotter is keen to hand over to Gregor Townsend next summer on a high note and a crucial few weeks also looms for players with Lions ambitions. Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, Jonny Gray and Tommy Seymour should be under serious consideration, but seeing off Australia, Argentina and Georgia would boost the confidence of all involved. Do the treble and, in terms of World Rugby rankings, they will be in contention to break into the top six next year.
World Rugby ranking: 8
10) Fiji
If Fiji were playing England at sevens there would be only one winner, as Great Britain’s players found out in Rio in August. Three Olympic gold medallists – the talented Josua Tuisova, Leone Nakarawa and Vatemo Ravouvou – will feature in the Flying Fijians 15-a-side tour squad with Nemani Nadolo due back at Twickenham where he scored a try and dented a few English bodies at last year’s World Cup during the home side’s 35-11 win. John McKee remains in charge while Welshman Gareth Baber has just taken over from Ben Ryan as Fiji’s sevens coach.
World Rugby ranking: 10
