New Zealand's next government: what we know
- Jacinda Ardern, who became leader of NZ Labour less than three months ago, is the prime minister-elect, after Winston Peters announced that his New Zealand First party would enter into a coalition deal.
- After hours in which he teased the public and media with the promise of a decision, Peters made the revelation in a televised broadcast. He did not tell Ardern or outgoing prime minister and National party leader Bill English in advance which of them he would be backing.
- Ardern, in a press conference following Peters’, said she had “enjoyed the theatre” of the dramatic unveiling of the country’s change of government and said she was “privileged and humbled” to become prime minister.
- English conceded defeat but added that with 44.4% of the vote and 56 seats in the 120-strong parliament – the largest single party – National would be the strongest opposition the country had ever seen. He batted away questions over his future as leader after the second time he has taken his party to electoral defeat.
- Ardern confirmed that NZ First’s nine MPs would have four cabinet roles and one junior role outside cabinet, though details of portfolios will be published next week. She said Peters was considering whether to accept her offer to become deputy PM.
- The Labour/NZ First coalition government will be a minority one, with a combined 55 seats, and will rely on a confidence and supply deal with the Green party’s eight MPs.
- Greens leader James Shaw said his delegates were voting tonight on the agreement, which would give the party three ministerial roles and an under-secretarial position – the first time the Greens would be in government – and said he was “very confident” it would go ahead.
- Ardern said the three parties had more in common than the issues that divided them, citing as priorities affordable housing and restricting foreign ownership of homes; a manned re-entry of the Pike River mine; “a period of renegotiation” on the TPP; a possible alternative site for Auckland’s port (a key Winston Peters concern) and protection of rivers.
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Updated
The Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has had a conversation with Ardern:
Congratulations @jacindaardern good to talk with you tonight. Look fwd to seeing you soon & building on our two nations' great partnership.
— Malcolm Turnbull (@TurnbullMalcolm) October 19, 2017
“Let’s do this” was Labour’s campaign slogan. It turns out they did.
Thank you. pic.twitter.com/0WQkaQPD1Z
— New Zealand Labour (@nzlabour) October 19, 2017
I’ll post a summary soon of the various leaders’ announcements.
Here is a key part of Winston Peters’ speech – just as he made the big reveal that NZ First would back Labour:
this seemed like the crucial/decisive part of Winston's speech tonight: pic.twitter.com/LOWcmNGneK
— Toby Manhire (@toby_etc) October 19, 2017
Shaw dismisses the “mythology” that NZ First and the Greens hate each other, adding that while Winston Peters is not easy to work with, he is “constructive”.
Arden, he adds, “is the boss – I’ll follow her lead.”
And he’s done.
He says a confidence and supply arrangement will allow the Greens to vote against the Labour/NZ First on issues outside the deal. It means the government will be the first truly MMP (mixed member proportional representation) government, he says:
It forces us to work together.
He repeats Ardern’s line that the three parties have found they have more in common than issues that divide them.
Shaw says there are around 155 delegates on the call right now to determine whether the party accepts the deal; 75% need to agree.
Greens set to enter confidence and supply deal
Shaw says his party will decide tonight and he is “very confident” it will back the deal.
It will be a confidence and supply deal, he confirms, rather than a coalition, with the Greens having three ministers outside cabinet and one under-secretarial role. It is the first time the party will be in government, he stresses:
We will be in cabinet for those discussions which are relevant to our interests.
Where we’ve landed up is, we think, a really good place for us to be.
Greens to back coalition
Green leader James Shaw says his delegates are still discussing the details of the deal that would see it back the Labour/NZ First coalition, but he sees it as a great opportunity:
For the first time we are probably going to be in a position to have ministerial control of the issues that are important to us.
Jacinda Ardern earlier confirmed that the Greens would be offered ministerial roles, although Winston Peters had said this would not be in the cabinet.
English says questions of leadership are not for tonight but for the weeks ahead.
But it is the second time he has led National to general election defeat. In 2002, under his leadership, National had its worst-ever electoral defeat, losing to Labour’s Helen Clark.
This time, National was the largest party, securing 44.4% of the vote, but is once again the loser. There will inevitably be questions over how long English can stay as leader, particularly against Ardern, the 37-year-old who stormed from deputy leader of a Labour party flagging in the polls to prime minister in the space of less than three months.
English says there is probably not a party in the world that won 44.4% of the vote – as National did – and did not end up in power, but says that’s just how the system works.
It means National will be a large opposition, he adds, as
A group of people who were geared up to be a government. We’re not going to be a government, we accept that.
He calls Ardern’s win “a fairly remarkable performance … 10 or 12 weeks ago she was deputy leader of a fading opposition”.
“We had satisfactory negotiations,” says English of talks with Peters and NZ First, adding: “He had more influence on forming a government than we did.”
He says speculation about disagreements over ministerial roles is “quite wrong”, but declines to go into details about what National offered to Peters.
He says learning that he was no longer PM via Peters’ televised speech, and not in advance, English dismisses it as “a bit of a detail”.
English says he has called Jacinda Ardern to congratulate her on becoming prime minister – but adds that National will be the strongest opposition the country has seen.
(National has 56 seats in the 120-strong parliament.)
Bill English concedes defeat
The outgoing PM is speaking now.
He says he is proud to leave New Zealand “in great shape … a more confident country with more aspiration”. He says he wishes the new government well.
Ardern key points
Here are the key takeaways from Jacinda Ardern’s press conference:
- NZ First will have four cabinet roles in the Labour-led coalition, plus one ministerial role outside cabinet. Portfolios will be revealed next week.
- Winston Peters, NZ First’s leader, has been offered and is considering the role of deputy prime minister.
- The Green party has yet to vote on its agreement to back the Labour/NZ First coalition but has been offered ministerial roles.
- Ardern says she “enjoyed the theatre” of finding out via Peters’ televised speech that he was entering a coalition with Labour. Peters said he did not tell Ardern or National leader Bill English in advance which party he had picked.
- Ardern said coalition negotiations had been robust and agreements would be published early next week. She said the parties had more in common than issues that divided them, including affordable housing, clean rivers and reworking the TPP.
- The Labour caucus will meet on Friday to elect its cabinet.
- English has conceded that National cannot form a government.
English, the outgoing PM, will hold his own news conference shortly.
Ardern, amid a barrage of questions, has asserted some of her priorities as prime minister. She has mentioned:
- Housing and the need for affordable homes, as well as restricting foreign ownership of NZ homes.
- A manned re-entry of the Pike River mine.
- “A period of renegotiation” on the TPP.
- A possible alternative site for Auckland’s port (a key Winston Peters concern).
- Protection of NZ rivers.
Updated
“We have tried to be as proportional as possible” in determining ministerial roles, Ardern says, but insists she won’t be drawn on what has been offered to the Greens until that party’s delegates have concluded their meeting, which is happening now.
Asked if she’s had congratulations from other world leaders, Ardern says she hasn’t had a chance to check her phone.
Ardern says she is looking forward to travelling to Australia “as soon as I am able”.
(Here’s why it could be diplomatically tricky.)
Ardern on learning her win from TV
Asked if she’d have preferred to find out that she was PM-elect before Winston Peters announced it on television, Ardern laughs:
I enjoyed the theatre … I joined with NZ as we learned the news together.
She says she is “privileged and humbled” to become prime minister.
And on her relationship with Peters, she adds:
We’ll have a partnership, we’ll continue to learn from one another.
Four cabinet roles for NZ First
On the Greens, Ardern says she awaits the outcome of the party’s decision on whether it will back the Labour/NZ First coalition.
Tomorrow afternoon the Labour caucus will meet to elect cabinet positions. The coalition agreements with NZ First and the Greens will be published early next week, followed by news of ministerial appointments.
NZ First will hold four cabinet positions and one junior ministerial role.
Peters has been offered the role of deputy PM and is considering whether to take it, she says.
Ardern won’t be drawn on what roles could be offered to Green MPs, but confirms they will have ministerial portfolios.
Updated
Ardern says coalition negotiations have been “robust”, but says the parties found more to unite them than divided them.
She says Labour and NZ First are “true allies” when it comes to protecting the rights of New Zealanders.
She says policy agreements are the “solid foundation on which we will now build a coalition government”.
Jacinda Ardern speaks
The PM-elect starts by thanking Bill English for his service as prime minister.
She says English has conceded that coalition talks have now concluded.
The Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, says he has sent Ardern a congratulatory text and hopes to speak to her soon.
We’re yet to hear from the Australian foreign minister, Julie Bishop, who during the election campaign said it would be “very difficult to build trust” with a Labour government in New Zealand. It came after news broke that the Australian deputy prime minister held dual Australian/New Zealand citizenship – and that an NZ Labour MP had asked a question about dual citizenship that (apparently unwittingly) contributed to the revelation.
Bishop accused NZ Labour of collaborating in a plot to destabilise the Australian government. Ardern called that “false claims”.
Outgoing prime minister Bill English and Green party leader James Shaw will also speak later, after Ardern. Green support – likely through an informal deal, as Winston Peters appeared to rule out a three-party coalition – will be essential for any Labour-led government.
Labour has 46 seats and NZ First nine, not enough to bring them to the 61-seat majority. The eight seats belonging to the Greens will therefore be crucial.
It’s expected that the Greens, who have distanced themselves from National, will fall into line. But nothing is yet certain.
Ardern: 'We said we could do this'
The first official pronouncement from NZ Labour – the new government – has landed:
Labour is pleased to have successfully concluded negotiations with New Zealand First as a critical step to forming a Labour-led progressive government, says Labour leader Jacinda Ardern:
I thank the New Zealand First party and leader Winston Peters for agreeing in principle to a coalition arrangement with Labour.
The negotiations have been courteous, constructive and robust. Throughout, we have focused on our shared values and the policies that can take New Zealand forward.
We are both committed to forming a strong and durable government that can deal with the many challenges this country faces.
The Green party is now undertaking its internal approval process before we confirm final arrangements to form a Labour-led progressive government. This too has been an excellent process, which I thank James Shaw and his team for.
This is an exciting day. We aspire to be a government for all New Zealanders and one that will seize the opportunity to build a fairer, better New Zealand.
We will work hard to ensure New Zealand is once again a world leader, a country we can all be proud of. We said we could do this, we will do this.
I thank Bill English and acknowledge the service he has given to this country as prime minister, and for a hard fought campaign. We both share a commitment to making New Zealand a better place and Bill has left his mark.
Jacinda Ardern – who learned she would become prime minister watching Winston Peters’ speech on TV – will face the media for the first time since the announcement in around 15 minutes from now (8pm NZ, 6pm AEDT, 8am BST). We’ll cover it live here.
Press gallery waiting for Ardern pic.twitter.com/L26FFKbt0K
— Jane Patterson (@janepatterson) October 19, 2017
A statement from ACT leader – and the party’s sole MP – David Seymour warns that a Labour coalition with Peters is “beholden to a madman on the loose”.
ACT was one of three smaller parties that kept Bill English’s minority National government in power in the last parliament.
Seymour’s statement reads:
With no hints on policy and vague attacks on capitalism, New Zealanders now face a weak leftwing coalition beholden to a madman on the loose.
Winston Peters’ perverse marriage with Labour and the Greens threatens countless groups: taxpayers, Auckland infrastructure users, millennials, immigrants and the businesses relying on them, and more.
If this coalition governs as it campaigned, then New Zealanders face a big-spending, tax-everything-that-moves, 1970s-protectionist, red-tape-loving government.
A reminder that Jacinda Ardern became leader of the Labour party on 1 August – less than three months ago. Weeks later, she is the prime minister.
Further congratulations from former Australian Labor prime minister Julia Gillard:
Congrats to Jacinda Ardern and the NZ Labour team. After many nail-biting days, a great result! - JG
— Julia Gillard (@JuliaGillard) October 19, 2017
A quick guide to what you need to know about Jacinda Ardern, Labour leader and New Zealand’s next prime minister:
Peters says talks between NZ First and Labour have been “extremely constructive” but refuses to divulge what cabinet and ministerial roles have been dished out.
That’s for the prime minister to reveal, he says.
And now he’s done. We’re expecting to hear from Ardern soon.
Peters did not tell Ardern in advance
“No doubt she saw it on the television,” Peters says.
He confirms he did not tell English first either, saying he thought the New Zealand public had the right to know first.
The Green party will meet this evening to decide whether it will back the Labour/NZ First coalition. Winston Peters has said the Greens would not be in government, making a likely outcome a confidence and supply arrangement.
But this would need to be formally accepted by the Green delegates.
Email from Greens pic.twitter.com/8j44kjA6ny
— Anna Connell 💃🏼 (@AnnaGConnell) October 19, 2017
We didn’t get enough votes to secure a referendum on the future of the Māori seats, Peters says. This was a key NZ First policy that now looks likely to be discarded as Ardern had said she would not support it.
Peters points out that all Māori seats fell to Labour in the election, wiping out the Māori party’s parliamentary representation.
Swift congratulations for Ardern from Australia’s Labor leader Bill Shorten:
Congratulations @jacindaardern & @nzlabour - a new era for New Zealand.
— Bill Shorten (@billshortenmp) October 19, 2017
A reminder that we are due to be hearing from Jacinda Ardern – New Zealand’s new prime minister – right after Winston Peters finishes taking questions.
It’s not clear if Bill English, the outgoing PM, will speak. Earlier today he said he had not considered whether he should resign if National did not win out in the coalition deal.
“There are far too many people living in degraded and poor conditions in this country,” Peters says, adding that those in power were thought to be out of touch with the reality of life for New Zealanders. That was the key issue in the NZ First caucus, he says.
He says part of the coalition deal will be to build 10,000 affordable homes each year.
It appears the Green party will back the Labour/NZ First coalition with a confidence and supply deal – its eight seats are needed to get the coalition to the 61-seat majority it needs.
Labour won 46 seats and NZ First has nine.
Peters says he is not saying what job he will have in the new government, saying it’s in the gift of the new prime minister, Jacinda Ardern.
He suggests he has been offered the deputy PM role, adding that NZ First will not have the key finance minister job.
Peters says the choice ultimately came down to whether to stick with the status quo or go for change:
The people of this country did want change. And we have responded to that.
Peters says Ardern displayed “extraordinary talent” during the campaign.
He says it will be her choice which ministerial portfolios are given to NZ First.
NZ First enters coalition with Labour
The country voted for change, Peters says.
Peters says he won’t summarise all the policy agreements today. They will come later.
You can’t always get what you want, Peters says of the policy agreements he has made.
He says the first priority is to prevent economic slowdown.
There were great risks in whatever decision we made.
Peters has a bit to say about how commentators and politicians failed to take proper account of NZ First during the campaign.
He says the decision has been reached by the whole party, and not by the leader (him).
He says 11 days of negotiations “is not too long to wait” and says it will take Germany much longer to figure out its government.
New Zealanders will know their next government tonight, he says.
Winston Peters is here
He thanks both parties for the negotiations and says they show how politics should operate.
There might be a New Zealand government soon:
Mr Peters is on his way to the theatrette
— Jane Patterson (@janepatterson) October 19, 2017
Given that the actual new prime minister of New Zealand won’t be making the announcement of who is the new prime minister of New Zealand, we’ll expect to hear from Bill English and Jacinda Ardern after Winston Peters speaks.
The Labour leader will be quick off the blocks, it appears:
Breaking: Jacinda Ardern holding stand-up presser straight after Peters @nzherald
— Shayne Currie (@ShayneCurrieNZH) October 19, 2017
Peters announcement imminent
And the official version via NZ First:
New Zealand First leader Rt Hon Winston Peters will make an announcement in the Beehive theatrette shortly.
Well, we’re getting something from Peters:
The lectern at the theatrette (that’s what it’s called, don’t blame me) is ready but still empty, as the room fills with New Zealand’s political journalists.
There still seems to be some doubt over whether Winston Peters – a man who taunts journalists for sport – will show:
Nobody told us to come to the Beehive theatrette. We are like cows who wandered to the milking shed and the farmer is like, what you doing?
— Jo Moir (@jo_moir) October 19, 2017
For those coming fresh to the live blog just in time for the (expected) announcement, a quick catch-up.
Twenty-six days ago, on 23 September, New Zealanders went to the polls to choose their next government.
Today, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, which holds the balance of power in a parliament in which no party secured the necessary 61-seat majority, decides who that next government will be.
There are, ostensibly, two options. Peters could side with National, which has been in government since 2008, and return Bill English to the prime ministership. With 56 seats (and 44.4% of the vote), National would comfortably get across the line with the help of NZ First’s nine seats.
Or Peters could sign up with Labour, which has 46 seats but also a pre-arranged alliance with the Greens. Their eight seats, plus NZ First’s nine, would also get the three-party coalition a parliamentary majority.
Or he could do something else entirely. Quite what is difficult to say, but Winston Peters is not a man who likes to do what is expected.
While we wait for Winston Peters, reporters in Wellington seize on any hint of a clue:
Have now heard two rounds of clapping from the labour offices (i'm one floor down) https://t.co/1K0zVUd8l0
— henry cooke (@henrycooke) October 19, 2017
Reports from Wellington say NZ First staffers are making their way to the Beehive (the parliament building), adding to the speculation that Peters is about to speak.
This Labour MP (presumably still in the dark too) is not the only one:
Waiting...
— Deborah Russell MP (@BeeFaerie) October 19, 2017
Peters to speak in half an hour – probably
That suggestion earlier that the NZ First leader was waiting to crash the 6pm (4pm AEDT/6am BST) TV news bulletins is firming up, with several reports now that Peters is preparing his speech. To say what exactly we still don’t know.
Greens leader James Shaw has told RNZ that his party, Labour and NZ First have many things in common:
- All parties are committed to setting up an independent climate agreement.
- All are sceptical about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
- All are committed to investing in the regions and to regional economic development.
Shaw said he had not spoken to Winston Peters in “a while”, adding that he thought the timeframe it has taken for New Zealand to form a government was “normal”.
Updated
Greens to vote on 'proposed agreement with Labour'
And here’s Greens co-leader James Shaw on that meeting this evening of party delegates:
There will be a delegate conference call tonight. The vote will be on our proposed agreement with Labour.
I have no comment on whether NZ First are likely to go with National or Labour.
Meanwhile, the NZ Herald is reporting that Labour is Peters’ first choice.
Anyone would think a heap of horse-trading is going on as the self-imposed deadline approaches (or has passed, depending on whether you believe 5pm has taken us from Peters’ promised afternoon announcement into evening).
The Herald reports that the Green party is holding a meeting of delegates this evening, taken to be a sign that the third party in a potential Labour/NZ First/Green coalition is gearing up for government.
The number of ministerial and cabinet posts is also believed to be an issue in the negotiations between Labour and NZ First, with reportedly fewer posts on the table in the Ardern offer than that proposed by English.
Updated
National Business Review is reporting (paywall) that the holdup is down to last-minute disagreements over ministerial positions.
It says NZ First wants five ministerial posts, four of them within the cabinet – and that National is balking at the demand.
NZ First has nine MPs. According to NBR, it wants four of them (Peters himself, deputy Ron Mark, Tracey Martin and Shane Jones) in the cabinet, and Fletcher Tabuteau to get a junior minister post.
Updated
How NZ First could work with Labour and Greens
A Labour/NZ First/Greens coalition would be an interesting proposition, writes Eleanor Ainge Roy:
Winston Peters has a long-standing dislike of what he views as the “hippy” Green party and this unusual alliance would be viewed by political commentators as somewhat fragile.
There has been much speculation about how 72-year-old Peters will deal with the youth and freshness of Ardern, and how he would take to being her deputy. But there is a chance for him to play the experienced older hand by siding with Labour because of his decades in politics.
After nine years of National government, Peters ran his campaign on a similar theme to Labour: it’s time for change. This is likely to be Peters’ last term in parliament and he would like to go out with a bang – sticking with the status quo of National would not deliver that.
Labour is currently the scrappy underdog – a position Peters has long identified with – and siding with the opposition would be thumbing his nose at the establishment. The NZ First values his political independence (he held his election night party at a small pub in Northland, rather than Auckland or Wellington like the other major parties) and bringing about a major shift in government would appeal to his sense of theatre and fairness.
Labour and NZ First have many policy overlaps: NZ First’s drop in the polls was attributed in part to some of his supporters switching allegiance to Labour after Ardern was elected and “Jacindamania” was born. According to a Colmar Brunton survey earlier in the year, 65% of NZ First voters favoured Labour over National.
Areas of potential agreement
- A drastic cut in immigration: Labour has a cut of up to 30,000 people.
- Exploring a manned re-entry of Pike River mine.
- Taxing bottled water companies taking New Zealand water.
- An increase in the minimum wage: Peters wants it at NZ$20 an hour.
- Moving the Auckland port to Northland and building a reliable rail link between the two (Ardern has said she is open to this).
- Investing in New Zealand workers and training by government-funded study and apprenticeship schemes.
- Keeping the retirement age at 65.
- State support for grandparents who become primary carers for their grandchildren.
- Driver licence training for every secondary school student.
- Raising the student allowance (Labour has committed to increase it by NZ$50 a week).
Updated
Another clue that it is, perhaps, in one way or another, on:
Winston Peters advisors have laid a plinth in Beehive theaterette, to make sure he’ll be at the right height behind the lecturn pic.twitter.com/hfUdFNr7bO
— Newshub Politics (@NewshubPolitics) October 19, 2017
It must be hard to sneak anywhere when you’re currently the most-watched man in New Zealand …
Breaking: Winston Peters has been seen sneaking in and out of Labour's offices today.
— Patrick Gower (@patrickgowernz) October 19, 2017
How NZ First could work with National
If Peters chooses National, he’ll be returning to power the party that has governed for nine years. Eleanor Ainge Roy assesses their chances:
Bill English and Winston Peters have worked alongside each other for decades and are said to have a healthy degree of mutual respect.
It has not all been all smooth-sailing. English has described Peters as a “maverick” and frequently joked about his many bottom lines. However, he has said he believes the two parties could form a strong government and have a mutual interest in continuing to grow the economy – the backbone of National’s campaign, and a longstanding interest of Peters, who has harboured ambitions to be finance minister.
English told Radio New Zealand after the election:
People want to continue with the economic direction and they voted for progress. We have yet to secure a mandate to govern … but I think there is a clear indication from voters of continuing the direction National campaigned on.
So what are the elements working in favour of an NZ First/National coalition?
Peters has a long-standing distaste for the Green party and would find it difficult to work with them in a Labour coalition.
English as prime minister is a known quantity and because of his subdued leadership style Peters as potential deputy prime minister would remain the star and showman in government.
A coalition with National would have a greater majority than a Labour-led one and potentially would be more stable as a two- rather than three-party grouping.
And after all, National won the most votes in the election, which may convince Peters to back the party with the biggest numbers.
Areas of potential agreement
- Banning foreign buyers or operating a foreign buyers register.
- Scrapping the Māori seats. (NZ First policy is to hold a referendum to scrap the Māori seats, calling them “tokenism”.)
- Reducing or lowering record-high levels of immigration.
- Not raising the retirement age from 65.
Updated
As well as hammering out policy agreements and disagreements, a key factor in building a coalition will be personal: who will Winston Peters and co want to work with?
Before the most recent election campaign, Peters and Bill English were thought to have had a generally good relationship and a mutual respect. But that soured earlier this year, when Peters called on English to resign as prime minister after Todd Barclay, a government MP, resigned amid claims he made illegal tape recordings of a former staff member.
The NZ First leader said at the time:
I don’t believe English is a straight shooter.
But prior to the coalition negotiations, Peters said he and Jacinda Ardern had never had a one-on-one conversation.
Updated
Marama Fox, co-leader of the Māori party who – along with the rest of her party – lost her seat in parliament in the election, has run a snap poll on Twitter to gauge which way followers think Peters will go, and it’s as good a guess as any at this point:
.Which way will Winnie crumble?
— Marama Fox (@FoxMarama) October 18, 2017
Jacinda Ardern’s partner, Clarke Gayford, is on the scene, from which we can divine precisely nothing:
Just spotted Clarke Gayford on his way into the Labour office with gingernuts and possibly a bag of candy
— henry cooke (@henrycooke) October 19, 2017
There have been surprisingly few leaks from the coalition negotiations and very little has been given away by party members about the detail of the talks.
In an official statement on Tuesday, Peters said:
We are 98% there on policy issues.
Labour’s deputy leader, Kelvin Davis, had previously said, not very revealingly, that negotiations had been “very nice”.
Updated
Eleanor Ainge Roy, our correspondent in New Zealand, is one of those wondering when Peters will show his hand:
Last night Winston Peters released a statement saying he would make an announcement this afternoon on which party he had decided to align himself with.
But as noon has come and gone, New Zealanders are growing increasingly anxious that a decision may be hours, if not days away. Peters has had a 40-minute break to clear his head, and he said the meal had helped him with the decision.
It appears negotiations between NZ First and the major parties are ongoing, with Peters saying new information was still coming in and the situation was changing by the hour.
As it stands, neither of the main party leaders, nor the media nor the New Zealand public know which way Peters will swing, what time this afternoon his announcement will be, and what form it will take.
It is thought that the announcement will be the first that Bill English and Jacinda Ardern will hear of his decision – and they will then be called on to make an appearance.
The lack of information regarding the timeline or format of Peters’ decision is frustrating New Zealanders, some of whom are calling the current situation “bizarre” and “ridiculous”, though there is certainly a humorous element to it as well.
Daylight hours are long in New Zealand with the approach of summer, and Newshub has declared the end of the “afternoon” as sunset at 7.46pm. So we could be in for a long wait yet, though most commentators are predicting Peters will make his announcement close to or at 6pm – in time to be broadcast live on the nightly TV news.
Clever, New Zealand Herald. Let’s hope you don’t have to run this page again tomorrow. Or the day after…
Scoop! Today's @nzherald front page has the winner pic.twitter.com/1JEitd2QBT
— Shayne Currie (@ShayneCurrieNZH) October 18, 2017
Over the past nine years of National government, Peters has repeatedly opined on his many “bottom lines” if he were to form a coalition government.
These include:
- Plans to slash migration to 10,000 a year – a drop of more than 60,000.
- A ban on foreigners buying land, and establishment of a foreign ownership register.
- Moving public service jobs out of Wellington to regional areas.
- Holding a referendum on the anti-smacking law.
- Installing New Zealand woollen carpets in all government departments, schools and agencies.
Peters told reporters that NZ First has been in touch with National and Labour “all the time” since negotiations began post-election.
But he said he had not decided whether to tell English and Ardern what his party choice is before he announces it to the public.
Peters told reporters on his way back to the meeting that he did feel he was closer to making a decision.
In other news, it appears he had Vietnamese pho for his breakfast-lunch.
There is a rather larger than slim chance that Winston Peters is relishing all this attention, of course. Anyway, he seems to have finished his breakfast/lunch. Back to the caucus meeting.
when u get lunch at the new vietnamese place and everyone wants to know how it was pic.twitter.com/3w3h9ZmoYi
— henry cooke (@henrycooke) October 19, 2017
Peters: 'I don't rule things out … Things change by the hour'
Before taking his meal break, Peters spoke to reporters outside the NZ First caucus meeting. He described it as “a very, very anxious time”:
Our total focus has been on the decision … It is seriously difficult, because, you know, there are pros and cons for every part of this decision we’ve got to make.
We’ve got one more chance to evaluate what it means, both ways.
Let’s be honest, no negotiation ends up perfectly, the way you’d like it. Because if it was the way you liked it, you’d never be in the negotiation in the first place.
We’ll go back [into the meeting] and we’ve got a few hours to go, but we hope to complete it … It is a party decision and the caucus matter most.
The reason why I don’t rule out things is that you never know what might blow in the next couple of hours – that’s the nature of politics … Things change by the hour.
After the counting of special votes on 7 October saw Labour and the Greens add an extra seat each, and docked two from National, Jacinda Ardern said the momentum was now with them to secure a coalition agreement with NZ First:
The final vote tally shows how this election galvanised people to enrol and vote with the highest turnout since 2005.
This reinforces the mandate for negotiations to form a stable, durable and progressive Labour-led government, a government I would be proud to lead.
James Shaw, the co-leader of the Greens, said they would be open to a three-party deal:
With the Green party, Labour and New Zealand First combined, there is now a strong majority for change across our parliament.
Perhaps not very reassuringly, English and Ardern are reported to be as much in the dark about the NZ First choice as the rest of us.
Both National and Labour held caucus meetings earlier today to present updates on talks so far with the kingmaker party.
National said English had set out “the broad parameters of an agreement with New Zealand First”. English himself tweeted that he was:
Looking forward to hearing NZ First’s decision.
Don’t do this to us, Winston Peters. (Also it is lunchtime in Wellington.)
Winston has emerged - still hasn’t made a decision. Hopes it’ll be today but no commitments. Now off for breakfast.
— Andrea Vance (@avancenz) October 19, 2017
Our political editor @janepatterson said Mr Peters spoke briefly to media - has not made a decicion, but one was probably a few hours away.
— RNZ (@radionz) October 19, 2017
Here’s the statement Winston Peters released yesterday promising an announcement today on … whatever he’s decided:
We will be in a position tomorrow afternoon to make an announcement on the result of negotiations following the 2017 general election.
I have spoken to the leaders of the National party and the Labour party today and, amongst other matters, advised them of this.
While it’s understood that English and Ardern were informed of the upcoming announcement, apparently the two party leaders do not know what Peters’ announcement will be.
English told reporters in Wellington this morning that he did not know which way NZ First would go:
Bill English is as much in the dark as us. Hasn't considered whether he'd resign should Peters choose Lab. (Credit: Kevin Stent) #decision17 pic.twitter.com/i5vn9EmKEJ
— Laura Walters (@WaltersLaura) October 18, 2017
It’s worth bearing in mind that coalition governments have been the norm in New Zealand for the last 20 years.
Since the introduction of MMP (mixed-member proportional representation*) for the 1996 general election, neither National nor Labour has won an outright majority.
Coalitions – of varying degrees of formality – are then formed. The most recent National government had the backing of three smaller parties, including the Māori party, which lost all its seats in the September election.
In current negotiations, Green support for Labour has been pretty much a given, while New Zealand First has found itself playing kingmaker, as it has in the past.
* In a nutshell, New Zealanders are asked to cast two votes: one for a party and one for a candidate for their electorate (constituency). The results are then used to calculate the proportion of seats each party will have in the – usually – 120-seat parliament.
Updated
Twenty-six days ago, on 23 September, New Zealanders went to the polls to choose their next government.
Today, Winston Peters, leader of New Zealand First, which holds the balance of power in a parliament in which no party secured the necessary 61-seat majority, decides who that next government will be.
There are, ostensibly, two options. Peters could side with National, which has been in government since 2008, and return Bill English to the prime ministership. With 56 seats (and 44.4% of the vote), National would comfortably get across the line with the help of NZ First’s nine seats.
Or Peters could sign up with Labour, which has 46 seats but also a pre-arranged alliance with the Greens. Their eight seats, plus NZ First’s nine, would also get the three-party coalition a parliamentary majority.
Or he could do something else entirely. Quite what is difficult to say, but Winston Peters is not a man who likes to do what is expected. Read more about him here while we all wait for him to take to the stage:
