With all the results that will be counted today counted, and all the negotiations to form the next government on hold until Sunday, it’s time to retire our live coverage.
Thank you for reading and for your comments.
Our full report on the election is here:
And our profile of kingmaker Winston Peters is here:
100% of results counted
100% of results have now been counted – bar specials, which include overseas votes and votes cast outside home electorates; those could take up to a fortnight to tally and might shift the landscape a little. But this is how the next parliament will, probably, look:
- National 46.0%, 58 seats
- Labour 35.8%, 45 seats
- New Zealand First 7.5%, 9 seats
- Green party 5.8%, 7 seats
- ACT, 0.5%, 1 seat
- The Opportunities party (TOP) 2.2%, 0 seats
- Māori party 1.1%, 0 seats
No other parties scored above 1%. The threshold to secure a seat in parliament is 5% of the party vote or an electorate (constituency) win, which is how ACT finds its way in, with party leader David Seymour winning in Epsom.
The full list of results is available on the Electoral Commission site.
Winston Peters is a controversial figure who has been accused of racism, including by the Greens’ Metiria Turei and ACT’s David Seymour, who called him “a terrible guy”.
When serving as foreign minister in a confidence-and-supply deal with the 2005 Labour government, he caused waves on the international diplomatic scene for his sharp and acerbic comments.
In 1996 he campaigned to close New Zealand’s borders to what he called the “Asian invasion”, and since then he has continued to call for a crackdown on immigration, which he says is the cause of New Zealand’s housing and social problems.
He has frequently bemoaned diversity – “We have now reached the point where you can wander down Queen Street in Auckland and wonder if you are still in New Zealand or some other country” – and labelled New Zealand “the last Asian colony”, saying he was disturbed that Asian people would one day become a majority of the population.
Peters also has a longstanding dislike of journalists, accusing them of being “brainless meerkats”.
Here’s where it stand with 99.8% of results counted. Labour is hoping for a little push when special votes – those from people who enrolled and voted on the same day, or who voted away from their home electorate, whose ballots will be tallied over the next two weeks – but it’s unlikely to be enough to shift these percentages decisively:
99.8% of results counted in #nzelection: National clearly ahead but nobody wins – yet https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/jrzBnUui1E
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
The New Zealand Herald on Sunday front page plumps for an almost victorious Bill English – with a lurking Winston Peters:
Another final edition about to be put to bed... look who's lurking in the bottom right corner... @nzherald pic.twitter.com/AyjGUIzhoE
— Shayne Currie (@ShayneCurrieNZH) September 23, 2017
It has been a devastating night for the Māori party, which is on course to have no seats in the new parliament, barely scratching 1% of the party vote and winning no electorates.
Co-leader Te Ururoa Flavel lost his electorate seat of Waiariki to Labour, in one of the shocks of the night. He conceded, thanking his party but acknowledging that change was needed:
We worked hard, but we didn’t get there on the day … The tide has turned and we have reached a crunch point.
Even though I am sad, I can be buoyed by knowing I worked hard for the Māori party cause.
The party’s other co-leader, Marama Fox, formerly a list MP, failed to win in the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate, which also went to Labour, and will not return to parliament after the party failed to meet the 5% threshold.
Who is Winston Peters?
Peters, 72, a sharp-tongued lawyer from Northland in the North Island, has had a 40-year career in politics, starting out with the National party in the early 1970s.
Verbose, frequently belligerent and engaged in a long-term love/hate affair with the media, Peters relies on the support of working-class voters and frequently stokes fears that foreigners are stealing New Zealand jobs.
“If you examine New Zealand as it once was a country, compared to where it is now all these years on against the rest of the world, you’d have to admit we’ve done very, very badly,” Peters said this week.
“I get credit for standing up for what I believe in and it is the only reason I bother staying in politics because I seriously like to go horse-riding and boating.”
Despite a campaign bus named the “Straight Talk Express”, Peters has been characteristically opaque during this election, keeping his cards close to his chest until someone comes knocking with an attractive enough offer to start negotiating his many “bottom lines”.
But expect immigration to be a key one. “The government deludes the public these migrants are skilled – it’s a myth, most of them are unskilled and drawn to this country in many cases by the generosity of our social services.”
Updated
Kate Shuttleworth is at National HQ and sends this analysis:
Bill English’s speech was carefully crafted to show he has a significant lead over the Labour party and is in the strongest position to form the government.
He was calm, confident and met with cheers as he spoke. While he knows National cannot form a government on its own, he is in the comfortable place of knowing it is looking easier for him than it is for Labour – who would need both NZ First and the Greens.
English said the voters had spoken in National’s favour, but admitted NZ First had a role to play. And he emphasised the common ground with NZ First – although there are many known differences.
He also congratulated Jacinda Ardern on a strong result and a hard-fought, competitive campaign.
He said his focus going into negotiations would be on building on the strength of the economic direction that had been the “foundation” of National’s success in government over the last three terms.
The kingmaker role is not new to Peters.
NZ First has previously worked with both major parties, entering into a coalition with National in the 1996 election with Peters serving as deputy prime minister and forming an unusual confidence-and-supply agreement with Labour in 2005, which saw him appointed foreign minister.
Ardern’s speech was carefully calculated to make a direct appeals to Winston Peters, who now plays the role of kingmaker in the New Zealand election.
Speaking of people she had met on the campaign trail and would like to help with a Labour government, Ardern mentioned a man in Kaitaia – a deprived town in Peters’ electorate of Northland.
She then went on to mention Pike River mine and her desire to help the families of the 29 men who died there to recover their bodies – another pointed appeal to Peters, who has long vowed to “bring the boys home”.
Ardern’s speech was upbeat in tone but with Peters as kingmaker she knows she has a long road ahead of her to bring him around to Labour. Peters also loathes some of the policies of the Greens – Labour’s first and most natural ally – and will be highly circumspect about entering into a coalition with them.
Could Peters side with Labour over National? They have some strong ideological points of commonality and Peters has some sworn enemies in the National camp, including finance minister Steven Joyce.
This year Peters has also slowly turned against Bill English, calling for his resignation over the Todd Barclay affair, when a government MP resigned amid claims he made illegal tape recordings of a former staff member.
With 72-year-old Peters looking at his last few years in politics he too, might be ready for change. The upset of Labour taking over because of his choice would certainly appeal to his sense of theatre.
Labour’s hope for change just about lives on – but now it all hangs on a cantankerous politician who has often said he’d rather be fishing.
Bill English says he will be in touch with Winston Peters “over the next few days … looking for common ground”.
He has not spoken to Peters yet, he says.
We’ve got a pretty strong vote … clearly ahead of Labour. We only need another two or three or four [seats for a majority].
We negotiate from a pretty strong position, a pretty good endorsement from the public.
Asked if he has the right to expect NZ First to approach National before Labour, English says:
It’s not a matter of right, but of responsibilities.
We don’t want to be rushed.
Kingmaker he may be, but Winston Peters is about to lose his electorate seat in Northland. He’ll still make it into parliament via the party list – New Zealand First is on 7.5%, over the 5% threshold, and on course for nine seats.
Winston Peters might be kingmaker but he's lost Northland. At 96 per cent counted he's 1299 votes behind National's Matt King.
— Karen Sweeney (@karenlsweeney) September 23, 2017
English says he believes he is able to move fairly quickly to form a new government:
I want to acknowledge the strong performance of Winston Peters and New Zealand First.
The voters have given New Zealand First a role in the new government, English says.
He repeats the “strong and stable” line.
Updated
Bill English: National can't form a government on its own
English admits he will need a coalition of some kind:
Of course it’s clear that neither Labour nor National can form a government on their own
As we go into negotiations … we want to build on the strength of the economic direction which has been the foundation of so much success over recent years for New Zealand.
Bill English is speaking now. He looks fairly happy.
He says he wants to get on with providing New Zealand with “strong and stable government” (UK readers will recognise this as the slogan flogged to death by Theresa May in the recent election).
National is 10 points ahead of its nearest rival, he says. It’s a sign of confidence in this small but proud country, he adds.
National has won more seats than Labour and the Greens combined. No one expected that just three weeks ago.
Kate Shuttleworth is at National party HQ, where supporters are about to hear from Bill English:
It’s been a flattish mood over the night, but slightly amped up in the past 30 minutes.
Deputy prime minister Paula Bennett jumped up on stage and revved up the crowd saying Bill English was on the way.
Jacinda Ardern is being quizzed on whether she will try to form a coalition with New Zealand First and the Greens (the latter being a natural ally for Labour).
I need to really keep an open mind on that
Bill English “did take a majority of the votes between the two major parties”, she says, but it is the other, smaller parties that will determine the outcome.
Ardern says kingmaker Winston Peters should look at whether the majority of votes overall were cast for the status quo or for change. Her argument is that it was a vote for change.
But not tonight:
When it comes to any conversations about potential future governments, that’s a conversation for tomorrow.
There are special votes to come … I’m hopeful that we’ll see a little bit of a lift.
(In 2014, there were 330,985 special votes – 13.5% of total votes cast – from voters who enrolled as they voted, or voted outside their local areas. These might not be known for another week or two.)
But Ardern says she will get on with it:
No one wants to leave this hanging … we want certainty for New Zealanders.
Quizzed on whether Peters would work with the Greens, which he’s previously spoken against, Ardern says:
I certainly wouldn’t rule that out. It’s simply a matter of practical political considerations.
I’ll certainly reach out [to Peters] tomorrow.
[Other] parties may wish to wait for special votes to come in … We’ll all be working to resolve this as quickly as we can.
With nearly all votes counted, it’s another minority government, bring on the coalition result for New Zealand:
Nearly all votes counted in #nzelection and Winston Peters is on his way to being crowned kingmaker (again) https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/acWJNsQbdK
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
As Ardern speaks, Bill English is preparing his own words:
Ready. pic.twitter.com/AVCH0W4PUR
— Bill English (@pmbillenglish) September 23, 2017
Ardern: We will work with any party that shares our beliefs
Ardern seems to be leaving the door open to a possible Labour coalition:
We will do everything we can to work with any party who shares our belief that New Zealand can be better … and that the next generation can expect better.
And, repeating a theme of her campaign:
We will remain relentlessly positive.
Jacinda Ardern says more important than the campaign is what you can do afterwards (which hinges on the crucial issue of who is in government, she does not say).
She talks about some of the people she met on the campaign trail.
I haven’t done as well for them as I would have liked.
She says she has called Bill English to congratulate him on winning the most votes. The MMP voting system leaves more work to be done, she says, adding that she does not know what decisions other leaders will make – clearly a reference to kingmaker Winston Peters.
Jacinda Ardern is speaking to supporters now:
Seven weeks ago, I stood in front of the press and New Zealand as the newly elected leader of the Labour party. I called it the worst job in politics.
I was wrong. The last seven weeks have been nothing but a privilege.
She says she has been lucky to have had a platform to talk about policies and change. But, she says:
You need more than luck … [But] I’ve come off the field knowing we gave it our all.
Jacinda Ardern is about to address Labour supporters – will she back the Greens leader in encouraging Winston Peters to consider an anti-National coalition?
Eleanor Ainge Roy is in the room:
Labour supporters are refusing to sit down in their anxious wait for Ardern. Younger supporters are sitting on the stairs leading to the function room nursing glasses of wine.
Andrew Kirton, Labour’s campaign leader, does not sound defeated:
Tonight at the end of this dramatic election campaign we gather to be part of history and to celebrate the change Jacinda Ardern has brought to new Zealand.”
Deputy leader Kelvin Davis has also taken to the stage to address Labour’s supporters in Māori.
The crowd is shouting ‘Jacinda, Jacinda, Jacinda’ and clapping heartily.
Winston Peters’ refusal to back a party tonight has given Labour some small hope of still forming a government, although negotiations will be long and protracted. Peters is an old-fashioned man and likes to take talks slowly.
Green leader: we can form government with Labour and NZ First
James Shaw is speaking to his party supporters now. He is not willing to concede that the new government is National, saying Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First could combine to form a new administration.
I’ve had to rehearse about five different speeches and then rewrite all of them five times. It’s been a pretty exciting night.
Actually I am happy with tonight’s result … current indications are that the three opposition parties [Labour, Greens, NZ First] command a majority once the special and the overseas votes will have been counted.
New Zealanders have voted for change.
So Jacinda Ardern and I are going to speak on the phone tomorrow.
He says they will discuss pathways to creating a new government and that he has a message for Winston Peters, leader of NZ First:
We do have some things in common.
Shaw cites committing to a net zero carbon economy, as well as renewing the rail network, forestry, and regional economies.
It’s time to put those differences aside and to work together to create the government of change that New Zealanders want, in the national interest.
This has been the fight of our lives and we are still here. We are still standing!
James Shaw, the leader of the Green party, is speaking to reporters outside his party HQ. He says he’s “got a message for Winston” Peters, leader of NZ First – but he doesn’t say what that is. Save it for the speech…
The Greens are over the party vote threshold, currently on 5.9%, and predicted to land seven seats.
90% of results counted: still no majority
Of course, a majority would actually be a surprise, given NZ electoral history since it switched to the MMP voting system. But Bill English is close – but not yet close enough – to the 61 seats he needs:
90% of votes counted in #nzelection2017: Bill English close to clinching it but National does not have a majority https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/SThmJjlah8
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Eleanor Ainge Roy is at Labour’s election night party, awaiting the arrival of the leader:
Energy and hope has returned to Labour HQ as Jacinda Ardern makes her way across Auckland in a minivan to address her supporters.
Her first words to reporters outside her home were subdued, and she said she had hoped for a stronger result.
But her supporters seem invigorated by Winston Peters’ speech tonight and Ardern’s impending arrival. The fact Peters said he will take a few days – or quite possibly weeks – to consider whether he throws his support behind National or Labour means the opposition still has a chance – and tonight that is better than a clear defeat after nine years of National.
There is a huge youth contingent at Labour HQ: the under-30s have come out in force tonight, further evidence of Ardern’s popularity among the young. More supporters are flowing into the room now as news of Ardern’s imminent arrival spreads.
Ardern: 'Obviously we’d hoped for better'
Jacinda Ardern has left her home to head to the Labour election night party. She told reporters outside:
Obviously we’d hoped for better.
She hasn’t spoken to New Zealand First leader Winston Peters:
I don’t expect there’ll be any conversations for a little while yet.
As Eleanor Ainge Roy reports:
According to Ardern’s partner she has written three speeches in preperation for tonight: a victory speech, a gracious defeat and a “let’s keep talking”.
With Winston Peters yet to make a call on who he’ll throw his support behind, Ardern is expected to turn up at Labour HQ shortly and use her “holding pattern” speech. Crack open your finest malt Ardern. Peters needs wooing …
Updated
Winston Peters: we won't be rushed into a decision
As it stands, National – or Labour, with Green backing – would need the support of New Zealand First to form a majority government.
But NZ First leader Winston Peters, in a speech just now, says he won’t be rushed into making a choice. He told supporters, just before he left to catch the last ferry home:
As it stands I believe we hold the balance of responsibility and we are not going to be hasty with that and we are not going to rush out and make a decision tonight.
And I will not make a decision tonight or tomorrow until I have talked to all of New Zealand First.
Despite all the provocations of this election, saying we would be doomed, the marginalisation and stigmatisation of NZ First went on – but we survived.
The party that is the third longest surviving party will go on. There is some good news for New Zealanders in tonight’s result.
The decision we will make, it will not be premature, we will make a decision in the interests of all New Zealand, in the national interest and that will take us some time.
We invite you to be patient: don’t ask us who we are going to go with. If we hear that one more time, we will be advocating a change of our political system.
Peters asked members not to make comments that would embarrass the party.
Updated
National MP Nick Smith has seen off Labour to win the Nelson electorate, Kate Shuttleworth reports.
Smith told supporters:
I’ve been around the electoral panic a few times – it’s fantastic news to win Nelson again.
National is in a very strong position. At 46% it’s very strong.
The Māori party is in trouble, with even co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell trailing in his Waiariki electorate, with two-thirds of votes counted there, behind Labour’s Tamati Coffey.
Labour has polled exceptionally well with the Māori electorate in this election, and are poised to take six of the seven seats reserved for Māori in New Zealand’s parliament.
The Māori party – which is currently on course to have no representation – has supported the National government, and the collapse in support could be read as a sign that Māori voters have connected with Labour’s message of change and are keen to unseat the national government.
Labour deputy Kelvin Davis said his party was a natural home for Māori voters:
We want better health and a better environment and better housing and Māori are returning to Labour because we have discussed and valued these issues that Māori care about.
Updated
Two-thirds of votes counted: National still strong
Two-thirds of the results counted in #nzelection2017 and victory looks impossible for Jacinda Ardern's Labour https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/PSkim8BCAu
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Eleanor Ainge Roy reports from Labour’s election night party:
Deputy leader Kelvin Davis has just arrived at Labour HQ to a huge cheer from the crowd – a welcome injection of spirit, with Jacinda Ardern expected to arrive soon.
With a projected 59 seats, National are just two seats away from being able to form a majority government without a coalition. It is a staggering fall for Labour, which in the wake of Ardern’s appointment shot up in the polls to lead National by 10 points.
The current numbers are showing no possible way for Labour to form a government – currently predicted 44 seats, even with the support of NZ First (on 9) and the Greens (7), this would only take them to 60.
Andrew Kirton, Labour’s campaign manager, said there were “no regrets on his part” and over the policy of introducing a water tax. Kirton said Labour ran the best campaign possible in the seven weeks since changing leaders, and increasing party polling from the low 20s to the mid- to high 30s was “remarkable”.
Commentators are not ruling out a Labour government if NZ First chooses to throw its support behind Labour, but the mood is growing increasingly subdued at Labour HQ.
People have slumped back in their seats and are scrolling their phones for results as well as watching the TV coverage on three huge screens.
David Seymour has indeed retained his electorate (constituency) seat of Epsom, guaranteeing the rightwing libertarian ACT a seat in the new parliament. Overall, ACT is scraping only 0.5% of the party vote, however.
Seymour is an effective plus-one to National’s total, putting Bill English a step closer to victory.
Updated
Gareth Morgan, founder of the Opportunities party (TOP) is speaking to supporters. With the party currently sitting on 2.1%, it is not expected to take a seat in the new parliament.
He says TOP has been fighting to make New Zealand a fairer society, but many voters are reluctant to address issues that could help the crisis in housing affordability.
You need to be really proud, he tells supporters, saying they have put their own vested interests aside to try to help battle inequality.
And he says the Green party – traditionally backers of Labour administrations – should work with a government of any hue to push an environmental agenda:
I know it’s early days yet but I notice that the Green party is above 5% … so we’re going to lay down a challenge to the Green party … to say to National that we will work with you on the environment.
Are you actually green? You’re only green part-time and that’s not good enough for New Zealand.
50% of votes counted – National still leads
With half of votes counted, National has taken a lead of more than 10 points over Labour.
With a projected 59 seats, it’s still not a majority – but with 61 needed, it’s pretty close. That projected ACT seat is almost certainly in the bag to support the government, continuing an existing arrangement.
But Bill English might still need the backing of Winston Peters’ New Zealand First to get his government going.
On this projection, Labour and Greens combined still fall far short – with 51 seats – of a majority.
Half of votes counted in #nzelection and National is steaming ahead of Jacinda Ardern's Labour. Live here https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/NpIVzbERBh
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Bill English is still in his hotel room, and has not joined the National election night party.
But my colleague Kate Shuttleworth reports from the SkyCity convention centre that the mood is upbeat, people are spilling in wearing blue badges and excited about how the results are going so far.
Eleanor Ainge Roy reports from Auckland:
The urban/rural divide has become a key flashpoint of this election, with Labour polling strongly with the urban vote, and National dominating the rural vote. Bill English is a former farmer and well-liked by the agricultural sector, which feels he has their back.
Ardern was accused of inflaming the divide recently when she committed to introducing a water tax, which farmers argued would cripple their businesses and cause the price of milk, vegetables and meat to rise across the country.
Last week some farmers attended a rally against Labour’s water tax in Ardern’s home-town of Morrinsville. The rally was memorable for a plethora of sexist signs, including the now infamous: “She’s a pretty communist.”
Although National is bidding for a fourth consecutive term in government, it would be a first victory for Bill English, who stepped up as prime minister when John Key resigned unexpectedly in December 2016.
It is not English’s first election campaign as leader, though – in 2002, he led National to its worst ever result, losing 12 seats as Labour’s Helen Clark won reelection.
One-third of results counted
One-third of results counted in #nzelection2017 and it's still National in the lead https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB #decision17 pic.twitter.com/WbHCLFqG9Z
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Jacinda Ardern hasn’t headed to the Labour election night party yet; she’s currently watching results from home (where it’s a bit chilly, by the look of it):
@jacindaardern is every Kiwi before they hit the town at night. Pic: David White/Stuff pic.twitter.com/yn9Hj1w0Es
— Jeff Tollan (@jefftollan) September 23, 2017
Just over 85% of those 1.2 million advance votes have been counted already.
Here’s how the results look there:
- National Party 45.8%, projected seats 57
- Labour Party 36.4%, projected seats 45
- New Zealand First 7.1-%, projected seats 9
- Green party 6.3%, projected seats 8
- ACT 0.5, projected seats 1
The Opportunities party on 2% and Māori party on 1.1% so far haven’t crossed the 5% threshold for a seat in parliament.
ACT has a lower percentage of votes so far but is expected to win an electorate (constituency) seat.
Confused? Here’s how the MMP voting system works.
The Greens are having a decent night, Eleanor Ainge Roy reports:
After fears that the Greens would not even make the threshold of 5% to make it into parliament, they seem to have rebounded, with 6.2% of the party vote so far, making them a plausible contender to form a coalition with Labour … if Labour can also woo NZ First, which currently sits at 7.1%.
The Greens suffered a major blow this election when co-leader Metiria Turei resigned in August after revealing she had committed benefit fraud as a single mother. Read her explanation for why she lied to “survive” here:
25% of results counted – National with 10-point lead
One-quarter of results counted in #nzelection: National still convincingly ahead of Labour. Live here https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB #decision17 pic.twitter.com/NQRtMImOWQ
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Eleanor Ainge Roy is at Labour’s election night party in Auckland:
The Māori party have not secured a seat yet, and it is going to cause them some serious problems. But there are a lot of votes left to count, as well as special votes.
(Special votes cover, for example, those who enrolled and voted at the same time, and those who voted outside their own electorate.)
NZ First – which often plays kingmaker in elections – is looking strong and it is increasingly likely that Winston Peters could again be the decider: as things currently stand, neither major party has the numbers to govern alone.
But it’s early, folks. Labour HQ in Aotea Square has filled up now and the room is full of chatter – and very full glasses of pinot noir to quell nerves.
With red lights bathing the room, supporters have turned a rich and rather beguiling shade of rose.
Updated
Andrew Kirton, Labour general secretary, says the party is expecting a boost when overseas votes are counted:
We’ve been buoyed for weeks now … We’ve had an extraordinary campaign.
We needed to get our people out and they did get out.
He says there were problems earlier in the week when advance voters found polling booths had run out of voting or enrolment forms. But he thinks today has gone pretty smoothly.
In the Northland electorate (constituency), albeit with barely 10% of votes counted, NZ First leader Winston Peters is currently behind National rival Matt King.
But with NZ First currently over the 5% threshold for party list seats, and with Peters sitting atop that list, he’s still likely to be taking a place in parliament.
Gareth Morgan, who founded the Opportunities party (TOP) – once of whose key policies was to address the crisis in housing affordability – has been speaking to Sky News about his dissatisfaction with voters:
I’m incredibly disappointed because, you know, they’re screwing the younger generation, they’re screwing the people who are in poverty.
You bet they [NZ voters] are selfish … By far the biggest driver of the average voter’s decision was completely and utterly self-interest … I’m not very proud of a society that holds that in such high regard.
I’m ashamed of it.
20% of results counted – National still ahead
#nzelection results with 20% counted; follow it all live here https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB #decision17 pic.twitter.com/itcjidSVFy
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
Eleanor Ainge Roy is with Labour supporters in Auckland:
Jacinda Ardern’s partner Clark Gayford has brought some snacks to the media waiting outside his house in Point Chev: fresh fried fish, buttered bread and tomato sauce.
Gayford says the mood inside is ‘pretty relaxed’ and he’s enjoying focusing on the cooking to keep his mind off the result.
The prospect of neither National nor Labour winning a 61-seat majority looks likely – not least because no party has done so since the introduction of the MMP voting system.
On current numbers, nor would either have enough to seal a majority relying on their traditional coalition or confidence-and-supply partners. Labour plus Greens still would not get over the line, for example.
Which means New Zealand First, currently sitting in third place, could find itself the key party – and its leader, Winston Peters, the kingmaker.
It would not be an unusual role for Peters, who has previously taken his party into governing agreements with both major parties. But who is he?
Eleanor Ainge Roy writes:
Peters, 72, a sharp-tongued lawyer from Northland in the North Island, has had a 40-year career in politics, starting out with the National party in the early 1970s.
Verbose, frequently belligerent and engaged in a long-term love/hate affair with the media, Peters relies on the support of working-class voters and frequently stokes fears that foreigners are stealing New Zealand jobs.
“If you examine New Zealand as it once was a country, compared to where it is now all these years on against the rest of the world, you’d have to admit we’ve done very, very badly,” Peters said this week.
“I get credit for standing up for what I believe in and it is the only reason I bother staying in politics because I seriously like to go horse-riding and boating.”
More than half of advance results have already been counted.
With 644,067 votes counted – that’s 56.5% – here’s how they’re leaning:
- National 46.1%, projected seats 57
- Labour 36.5%, projected seats 45
- NZ First, 7%, projected seats 9
- Green, 6%, projected seats 8
- ACT, 0.4%, projected seats 1
Political commentator Bryce Edwards says, so far, it’s looking like a bad night for the Green party:
Few of us thought NZF would get higher vite than the Greens. But they should go higher.
— Bryce Edwards (@bryce_edwards) September 23, 2017
It does look like the Greens, once again, haven’t got their supporters out to vote.
— Bryce Edwards (@bryce_edwards) September 23, 2017
But for the Māori party, he thinks, things could be even worse:
The Maori Party is looking like toast. That would be the big upset of the election.
— Bryce Edwards (@bryce_edwards) September 23, 2017
Updated
National’s Steven Joyce, the incumbent finance minister, has been talking to Sky News. With his party currently ahead on results counted, Joyce said he still felt nervous:
This is way too early. I have all sorts of scenarios running through my head.
It’s a good start … we just have to wait and see.
The complicating thing … is all these advance votes.
A record 1.2 million people voted early this year; those votes should be counted by 8.30pm local time.
Joyce said National was hoping for a convincing win:
Around mid to late 40s [percent] is ideal but hard to get … at this point i don’t want to put a number on it.
10% of results counted: National ahead
#nzelection results with 10% counted; follow live here https://t.co/lHZPNfTQFB pic.twitter.com/HGZWQjxxHZ
— Claire Phipps (@Claire_Phipps) September 23, 2017
So we have pink champagne at Labour HQ, tinned spaghetti pizza for National’s Bill English, and a rather more sedate offering from the Green party:
Food at the Green Party party pic.twitter.com/P0wWNAImSN
— Kirsty Johnston (@kirsty_johnston) September 23, 2017
With 7% of votes started – still early, let’s remember – here’s how it stands:
- National 45.7%, with a projected seat total of 57 (61 needed for a majority)
- Labour 36.6%, projected seats 45
- New Zealand First 7.3%, projected seats 9
- Greens 6.1%, projected seats 8
- ACT 0.4%, projected seats 1
Bill English is fuelling himself for the evening ahead with a favourite dish. And yes, that is tinned spaghetti pizza. No, really.
Starting off election night with a fine dinner thanks to the staff at the Pullman Hotel. pic.twitter.com/PnrdVRShic
— Bill English (@pmbillenglish) September 23, 2017
Our correspondent Eleanor Ainge Roy has previously made and taste-tested the canned spaghetti pizza so you don’t have to (you really don’t have to). Her – slightly surprised – verdict: “It’s good.”
How does the voting system work?
A reminder for those joining us since polls closed that New Zealand uses mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) to elect its representatives.
Voters are asked to make two marks on their ballots: one for a party, and one for a candidate for their electorate (constituency).
These results are used to calculate the proportion of seats each party will have in the – usually – 120-seat parliament. A similar system will be used for Germany’s election tomorrow.
As the Electoral Commission describes it:
Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat OR 5% of the party vote gets a share of the seats in parliament that is about the same as its share of the party vote.
It can lead to some oddities. In 2008 elections, the Green party did not win any electorate seats. But it did win 6.7% of the party vote, which translated to nine seats in parliament.
In the same election, the ACT party ended up with five seats because it won one electorate – even though its share of the party vote was just 3.6%. But New Zealand First, which was ahead of ACT in the party vote on 4.07%, failed to win an electorate so got nothing.
For the super-keen, the Electoral Commission has an online calculator to figure out who will get what.
And this handy guide from the Spinoff runs through the various outcomes, including the overhang, in which the number of seats in parliament can be increased beyond 120 to make sure the proportions are … proportionate.
Kate Shuttleworth is hanging out with the National party as they await the results:
Some 16,000 people are expected at SkyCity convention centre in Auckland – National HQ for election night.
Bill English is expected at 9pm and other ministers and MPs are set to arrive soon.
It’s buzzy at Labour HQ as supporters and party top brass begin to trickle in.
There’s a photo booth with (red) feather boas, pink – OK, it’s basically red – champagne, pinot noir and a faint mist of atmospheric smoke emitting from behind the stage.
The music’s not killing it yet: think elevator jazz. But knowing Jacinda Ardern is a fan of drum and bass and Fat Freddy’s Drop, here’s hoping it picks up soon.
Well, this is looking pretty close – albeit with 0.5% of the vote counted…
0.5% counted pic.twitter.com/jItNtmZvYf
— Toby Manhire (@toby_etc) September 23, 2017
My colleague Eleanor Ainge Roy is with the Labour party as the wait begins for the results to roll in:
There is a huge and diverse media contingent at Labour HQ in Aotea Square on Queen Street in central Auckland, where the sun is just beginning to set on one of the most exciting – and anxious – days in New Zealand political history.
It is fair to say this New Zealand election has drawn more global interest than any that has come before. At the Labour camp are all of the major Australian and New Zealand media organisations, television stations such as Al Jazeera and a diverse crowd of global media such as the Indian Weekender, Panda TV37, the Asahi Shimbun, CNBC Asia, and China’s Xinhua news agency.
Polls close
It’s 7pm local time and voting has finished.
Now for the counting, the nervous waits for the candidates, and the taxing work of puzzling out who’s won what and how much support they will need from the smaller parties to form a government.
We will have it all live here as it happens.
No campaigning for Labour challenger Jacinda Ardern today, as per the rules – she’s been painting her garden fence with partner Clarke Gayford at their home in Point Chevalier, Auckland:
There are many restrictions on what New Zealanders – politicians, media and the voting public – can do on polling day. In short, you can cast a vote and not much else.
You should absolutely read this piece in the Spinoff about what isn’t allowed because it is very funny. But in short, as midnight approached on Friday, political parties had to haul down all billboards and posters, scrub their social media and recycle leftover flyers.
Rosettes are rationed to one per person. Tweeting who you voted for or slapping a photo on Facebook with an “I heart XX party” banner are out.
The media in New Zealand can publish nothing about the election beyond the fact that a) there is an election; b) you should vote, here’s how; and c) how you can find out the result.
This is all until polls close, anyway. In 15 minutes, anything goes.
The precise number of early voters this elections is 1,240,740.
Turnout for the last election in 2014 was 2,446,279, so this really is a hefty chunk of the electorate turning out ahead of official polling day.
Incumbent prime minister Bill English was an early voter, with his wife Dr Mary English, on Thursday. The rules mean no speculating on which boxes they marked.
So, mixed-member proportional representation – it’s worth trying to get our heads around that before the results come in.
Essentially, New Zealanders are asked to make two marks on their ballots: one for a party, and one for a candidate for their electorate (constituency).
The results are then used to calculate the proportion of seats each party will have in the – usually – 120-seat parliament. A similar system will be used for Germany’s election tomorrow.
As the Electoral Commission describes it:
Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat OR 5% of the party vote gets a share of the seats in parliament that is about the same as its share of the party vote.
It can lead to some oddities. In 2008 elections, the Green party did not win any electorate seats. But it did win 6.7% of the party vote, which translated to nine seats in parliament.
In the same election, the ACT party ended up with five seats because it won one electorate – even though its share of the party vote was just 3.6%. But New Zealand First, which was ahead of ACT in the party vote on 4.07%, failed to win an electorate so got nothing.
For the super-keen, the Electoral Commission has an online calculator to figure out who will get what.
And this handy guide from the Spinoff runs through the various outcomes, including the overhang, in which the number of seats in parliament can be increased beyond 120 to make sure the proportions are … proportionate.
When will we know who's won?
The Electoral Commission says results will start to be declared soon after polls close at 7pm local time (5pm AEST/8am BST). It estimates we will know:
- all advance vote results by 8.30pm
- 50% of results from polling stations by 10pm
- 100% of results by 11.30pm.
These are all deemed to be preliminary results, with the official results not published for another two weeks, on 7 October.
Realistically, we should know tonight who is ahead. But there’s an important caveat. Since New Zealand introduced MMP (mixed-member proportional representation – we’ll come back to what that is shortly) for the 1996 general election, neither National nor Labour has won an outright majority.
Coalitions – of varying degrees of formality – are the norm. The current National government was formed with the backing of three smaller parties, including the Māori party.
Labour can typically rely on support from the Greens.
The wild card could be New Zealand First, led by veteran Winston Peters. A populist, anti-immigration party, NZ First has worked with both National and Labour in the past. If Peters ends up holding the balance of power in the new 120-seat parliament, which way will he go?
Updated
1.2 million people voted early
Polls opened around New Zealand at 9am (7am AEST/9pm Friday GMT) and will close at 7pm, around an hour from now, after which we should see results begin to roll in immediately.
But with early voting booths opening in some areas on 11 September, a large number of people have already cast their votes – a record-breaking 1.2 million people this year.
For comparison, in the last general election in 2014, 717,579 people voted early and 2.4 million people voted in total, just shy of a 77% turnout.
Could this year beat that total?
Friday was the biggest day of early voting on record: 253, 473 people cast their ballots.
Enrolling to vote is compulsory in New Zealand – although voting is not – and the Electoral Commission reckons 3,569,830 New Zealanders are eligible to vote this time.
We are an hour away from polls closing in New Zealand’s general election after a campaign that has been more closely fought than anyone would have predicted barely two months ago.
But the catapulting of Jacinda Ardern into the Labour leadership on 1 August reinvigorated what had looked to be a predictable stroll for the National party to a fourth term in government.
Although the polls have swung back in favour of the incumbent prime minister, Bill English, in the closing stages of the campaign, it is still far from clear who will seal enough seats – and the almost certainly necessary support from smaller parties – to lead the next government.
We will have all the latest news, results and reactions on this live blog. Join us in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
And a note to our New Zealand readers: please don’t tell us how you voted or how you think others should (at least not until after the polls have closed). Them’s the rules, you see.
