Summary
- The earthquake that rocked New Zealand on Monday has been officially upgraded from magnitude 7.5 to 7.8. Geonet, the country’s geological monitor, said it was
one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded on land.
- The revised magnitude means the mainshock was in fact nearly twice as big (1.995 times) and 2.818 times stronger, in terms of energy release, than had been thought, and could lead to stronger aftershocks for a longer duration than expected.
- The evacuation of the South Island coastal town of Kaikoura, without road access since the quake, is almost complete, with nearly 400 people transferred to the navy vessel HMNZS Canterbury, which will leave for Lyttelton, near Christchurch, on Wednesday evening.
- The US department of defence has deployed the USS Sampson – the first US warship to visit New Zealand for 30 years – to aid the relief effort, and Australia is also sending assistance vessels.
- But fears are mounting for wildlife in the most affected regions. Conservationists said half of the largest colony of the critically endangered Hutton Shearwater sea bird had been destroyed. The department of conservation said seals were likely to have been killed in a landslide that wiped out breeding grounds at Ohau Point, Kaikoura.
- Aerial pictures have shown changes in the eastern coastline of the South Island, apparently caused by the raising of the seabed as a result of the movement of the Hundalee fault:
@TonkinTaylor Before (March 2016)/After (Nov 2016) Worldview 2 images of Waipapa Bay (c) NextView. Same location as helicopter pic. pic.twitter.com/tztXvLhTtu
— Ryan Gold (@runr447) November 15, 2016
- In the capital Wellington, a portion of the central district remains cordoned off with a nine-storey office block at risk of collapse. The headquarters of the New Zealand Red Cross, New Zealand Rugby, the Thai embassy and the city’s Anglican cathedral have been evacuated; and the New Zealand defence force HQ is closed and reported to be “uninhabitable” due to quake damage.
- By 4.30pm local time (2.30pm AEDT, 3.30am GMT), Geonet had recorded 1,823 quakes since Monday’s mainshock.
Here’s our latest report from New Zealand on evacuations and fears for wildlife:
The evacuation of Kaikoura is almost complete, Associated Press reports:
Air Commodore Darryn Webb, the acting commander of New Zealand’s joint forces, told the Associated Press that crews were loading about 380 people and three dogs on to a navy ship. He said the ship was due to leave Wednesday evening for a six-hour trip to a port near Christchurch.
Webb said it had evacuated another 340 people by helicopter since Tuesday.
Other tourists have left by chartering their own helicopters or having air transport provided by their embassy. Some have chosen to stay until an inland road reopens.
“I think it’s gone really well,” Webb said. “We were fortunate to have a reasonable break in the weather today.”
Webb said warships from Australia, Canada and the US are due to arrive soon and would help restock the town with water, fuel and other supplies as well as transport and needed equipment.
As the dust begins to settle three days after New Zealand’s devastating earthquake, there are growing concerns for the fate of endangered marine wildlife off the coast of Kaikoura, with experts unable to get out to sea to assess their condition.
A submarine canyon 800m off the Kaikoura shore is responsible for the rich array of marine animals attracted to the area, including half a dozen species of whale, rare and endangered dolphins, blue penguins, New Zealand fur seals and protected native bird life.
But with aftershocks continuing to roll and the threat of tsunamis still possible, the only marine vessels able to get anywhere near the coast of Kaikoura are navy ships on rescue missions.
Two Otago University whale researchers are currently holed up in a rental house north of Kaikoura. According to their supervisor Liz Slooton, the pair are desperate to get on the water to assess the quake’s effect on Kaikoura’s population of whales, which have always been a major drawcard for tourists.
But with dwindling fuel supplies and no reserves coming any time soon, marine wildlife surveys are out of the question.
“Nobody is going on the water, not the local fisherman or tour operators – nobody,” said Professor Steve Dawson from Otago University. “It is too unsafe and may remain so for some time. At the moment we are forced to do nothing.”
The department of conservation (DOC) said it may be some weeks before its rangers will be able to take full stock of the quake’s effect on vulnerable wildlife.
“It is clear from reports that the recent earthquakes have impacted upon wildlife, including seals, penguins and seabirds,” said Ian Angus, DOC’s manager of marine species and threats.
The DOC said that it was likely some New Zealand fur seals may have been killed when a landslide squashed their protected breeding grounds at Ohau Point.
Otago University Associate Professor of Marine Science Bruce Robertson said although the loss of breeding grounds would be a cause for a localised drop in seal numbers, nation-wide the New Zealand fur seal population was steadily increasing, and he expected the Ohau Point population would soon establish new breeding grounds nearby, as female seals would need to beach to give birth in the coming weeks.
“There is some evidence that seals could have felt the tremors before humans did and fled to the water before the landslide, so possibly quite a few escaped” said Robertson.
The difference between magnitude 7.5 and 7.8
The upward revising of Monday’s earthquake from 7.5 to 7.8 might not seem huge, but it means more than the 0.3 difference might suggest.
The handy calculator at the US Geological Survey shows that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake is nearly twice as big (1.995 times) as a 7.5 quake.
And a 7.8 quake is 2.818 times stronger, in terms of energy release, than a 7.5.
An immediate effect could be that aftershocks could persist for longer and be stronger than had been expected.
The revised magnitude of 7.8 makes this the largest earthquake in New Zealand since the Dusky Sound quake of July 2009 – also a 7.8.
Then, the remote location – at New Zealand’s south-west tip, in the Fiordland National Park – meant there were no recorded casualties and few landslides.
Prior to Dusky Sound, Geonet reports, New Zealand’s largest quakes were the Buller of 1929 and the Hawke’s Bay earthquake of 1931. Both of these were also magnitude 7.8.
The home of the critically endangered Hutton Shearwater in Kaikoura has been severely damaged by the quake.
Karen Baird, Seabird Conservation Advocate for conservation organisation says:
The earthquake has caused a landslide that has damaged the breeding grounds of our critically endangered Hutton Shearwater. Half of the largest colony has slipped away (there are two colonies).
Birds will be on eggs at the moment, so it’s a devastating loss for a species already considered at risk.
However, this is a risk the birds always faced as our important bird areas report predicts geological events like this have the potential to wipe out 10%-49% of the Hutton’s Shearwater colony, depending on timing of breeding.
Sad news from Kaikoura where half of one of two breeding colonies for Hutton's Shearwater has slipped away. #EQNZ https://t.co/HRrvOuBQdO pic.twitter.com/q5ITReZUUD
— Forest & Bird (@Forest_and_Bird) November 16, 2016
'One of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded on land'
Geonet, which had originally (with caveats) recorded the mainshock at 7.5 magnitude, has posted a statement on the new 7.8 rating. It explains:
Early indications are that this is one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded on land. This complexity means we have had to take extraordinary efforts to determine the magnitude, depth, and locations …
Due to the size of the quakes, we’ve gathered data from our entire network of seismic stations. All of these stations would not normally need to be included in magnitude estimates.
Further, our techs at GeoNet went out to several sites which we lost communication with and we have now been able to upload this information, so we have a more complete understanding of the ground deformation and strong-motion data.
Finally, our science teams have been working tirelessly, going up and down the affected areas and measuring the length of faults and how much they moved. Their efforts have provided us with a clearer picture as to the size and length of the ruptures.
Based on all these ongoing efforts, we can say with some confidence that the earthquake was an M7.8.
This is consistent with estimates from several other international agencies, specifically the USGS. Their early model provided us important information and we used all our additional data sets to confirm the magnitude.
600 people evacuated from Kaikoura
The acting minister of civil defence, Gerry Brownlee, also offered an update on the evacuations from Kaikoura:
The HMNZS Canterbury will this evening set sail to Lyttelton [a port town close to Christchurch] with about 390 evacuees from Kaikoura on board.
The ship is expected to arrive around 11pm tonight, depending on weather conditions and the amount of time it takes to upload those waiting in Kaikoura.
The New Zealand defence force (NZDF) has now evacuated about 600 people from Kaikoura. Evacuations will continue for as long as necessary and, as of tomorrow, several ships from other nations – including the USS Sampson – will arrive off the Kaikoura coast ready to be mobilised as required.
Meanwhile, the NZDF is continuing to inspect the inland route into Kaikoura from the south, through Waiau, to determine the condition of the road.
At this stage it’s hoped the route will be cleared by the weekend. NZDF is using all-terrain vehicles on the road and, once reopened, access will be controlled by the New Zealand police.
You can read the Guardian’s dispatch from Waiau here:
New aftershock forecast: larger and longer
Gerry Brownlee, the acting minister of civil defence, has explained why the magnitude of Monday’s mainshock has been revised upwards:
GNS Science informed my office of the revised magnitude earlier today after reassessing the data from its stations across the country.
Because it took over a minute for the fault to rupture during this event, the standard method normally used to calculate the energy released during an earthquake was insufficient.
The revised magnitude just tells us what anyone who felt the earthquake would already know – that it was a powerful tremor that lasted for a long time.
It does not change what happened or how central government or local authorities responded. It simply provides us with more knowledge about how significant this earthquake was.
As expected with a larger earthquake, the revised magnitude does have an effect on the probabilities of forecast aftershocks, meaning it is now forecast that aftershocks may be larger in magnitude for a longer period of time.
Updated
Reports had varied on the strength of the initial quake that struck shortly after midnight on Monday morning.
New Zealand’s own monitoring service, Geonet, had measured the earthquake as magnitude 7.5 (and that’s what we at the Guardian have been using in our reporting up to now).
But other monitors, including the United States Geological Survey(USGS), already had it at 7.8.
Here’s how Geonet described the discrepancy on Tuesday:
Why were our magnitudes different from the USGS: About magnitude variability
We have currently established that the New Zealand local magnitude for this earthquake is 7.5, but this may be reviewed over time when more detailed research is undertaken. This may bring it closer to the internationally-derived value (e.g. Mw7.8 by the US Geological Survey).
This has now happened, the NZ government has confirmed.
Initial quake revised upwards to magnitude 7.8
The New Zealand government has officially upgraded the magnitude of Monday’s earthquake from 7.5 to 7.8.
Updated
Evacuations from Kaikoura continue, with hundreds of people – mostly tourists – who have been trapped since the town was cut off from road access now being taken out by boat to the navy vessel HMNZS Canterbury:
1,823 quakes since first shock
The latest report from Geonet, New Zealand’s earthquake monitor, tallies the number of quakes felt in the country since Monday’s mainshock at 1,823.
At 4.30pm local time (2.30pm AEDT, 3.30am GMT), Geonet had recorded 15 quakes in the previous hour, and 307 in the preceding 12 hours.
Eighteen of those were over magnitude 4.
16.30 pm update: 15 eqs in last hour, 307 eqs in last 12 hrs (18 over M4) and 1823 eqs since the M7.5. Kaikoura Earthquake #eqnz #Kaikoura pic.twitter.com/35EB74OXpD
— GeoNet (@geonet) November 16, 2016
One unexpected side-effect of the quake has been the apparent raising of the seabed at Kaikoura.
Dr Joshu Mountjoy, a marine geologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, told stuff.co.nz the phenomenon was probably due to movement of the Hundalee fault:
Some faults go side-to-side while others move vertically, like in this case, where the fault has pushed the land up into the air, and it appears to be by about a metre.
Aerial pictures from Kaikoura showed the changes in the coastline:
Aerial photographs show the seabed uplift north of Kaikoura - estimated to be between 2 - 2.5 metres. #EQNZ pic.twitter.com/WLkSj4Xx9m
— Tonkin+Taylor (@TonkinTaylor) November 15, 2016
Further north up the coast, in Waipapa Bay, similar shifts were apparent:
@TonkinTaylor Before (March 2016)/After (Nov 2016) Worldview 2 images of Waipapa Bay (c) NextView. Same location as helicopter pic. pic.twitter.com/tztXvLhTtu
— Ryan Gold (@runr447) November 15, 2016
Kaikoura evacuations: summary
Reuters has this report on the latest from the South Island coastal town:
Two New Zealand navy vessels on Wednesday reached a small South Island town cut off for more than two days by a devastating earthquake, bringing supplies of food and water and plans to evacuate hundreds of stranded tourists and residents.
Prime minister John Key went to Kaikoura by helicopter to inspect damage to roads that cut off the seaside tourist town after the 7.5 magnitude quake that struck just after midnight on Sunday.
Flew down to Kaikoura again today to check in with locals and get an idea of what further support the region needs. pic.twitter.com/XbpTxZ0bED
— John Key (@johnkeypm) November 16, 2016
The government was expecting to receive satellite imagery later on Wednesday to assess massive landslips around the country. The quake buffeted much of central New Zealand and left two people dead.
“Look at this road here,” Key said on his journey to Kaikoura, around 150km (90 miles) north of Christchurch. “I just don’t see how you can ever repair that bit of road. The whole mountain has moved over.”
Pictures shared on social media showed large sections of rocky coast covered in seaweed and abalone, apparently lifted out of the sea by the force of the quake. Huge landslides covered access roads and rail routes. One train was caught between two slips.
The HMNZS Wellington was surveying the harbour area at Kaikoura to ensure that it was safe for vessels, civil defence director Sarah Stuart-Black told reporters.
Officials said more than 400 people had been evacuated by helicopters from Kaikoura, including a dozen who were injured. “Between 700 and 1,000 people still require evacuation,” Stuart-Black said.
A sense of the scale of the task ahead clearing roads to Kaikoura and other towns cut off by landslides is emerging as more pictures arrive.
This is the road to Waiau (read more about how that town is coping here):
Evacuations – principally of tourists – are continuing from Kaikoura. In addition to the airlifts that began yesterday, HMNZS Canterbury is now anchored nearby and people are being taken out of the stranded town by sea.
Those 1200-odd tourists being evacuated from Kaikoura sure come with a lot of luggage @thetvnews #eqnz pic.twitter.com/KuspoOvbS3
— Emma Jolliff (@emtvnews) November 16, 2016
And supplies for the residents of Kaikoura are making their way in:
Supplies are coming thick & fast on choppers returning from Woodend @NZRedCross welfare centre #Kaikoura #eqnz pic.twitter.com/IKt3ue9U7z
— Simon Makker (@SimonMakker) November 16, 2016
New Zealand defence force HQ 'uninhabitable'
The evacuation in central Wellington is affecting a number of other organisations who have their offices on Molesworth Street – including the New Zealand Red Cross, which is playing a key role in relief efforts elsewhere in the country.
New Zealand Rugby headquarters, the Thai embassy and the city’s Anglican cathedral have also been evacuated.
Elsewhere in the capital today, the headquarters of the New Zealand defence force remain closed, with reports that its building has been declared uninhabitable – and may not be usable for up to a year.
We are working hard to get our HQ up & running, whilst ensuring the priority remains helping the people of #Kaikoura pic.twitter.com/zxb2bt8crV
— Chief of Defence NZ (@CDF_NZ) November 15, 2016
The mayor of Wellington, Justin Lester has just been speaking about the office building at 61 Molesworth Street, in the centre of the city, that has been deemed unsafe and liable to collapse.
He told reporters:
Internally there were some problems … That’s why it’s a likelihood it will be deconstructed.
Mike Scott, the city’s general manager of building control, said officials might be able to reduce the cordon around the threatened block, but that some restrictions would need to remain for safety reasons.
The US department of defence has deployed the USS Sampson to aid the relief effort in New Zealand.
The warship was already in the region as part of events to mark Royal New Zealand Navy’s 75th anniversary. It was the first US warship to visit New Zealand for 30 years, since Wellington adopted a nuclear-free policy in the 1980s. That meant a blanket ban on US ships, since America will not confirm whether its vessels have nuclear capabilities.
The detente means the USS Sampson was on hand in the wake of Monday’s earthquake. US defence officials said:
The guided missile destroyer USS Sampson is rushing to New Zealand to help those affected by a magnitude 7.5 earthquake …
Navy Admiral Harry Harris, the Pacom commander, said the ship carries two MH-60R Seahawk helicopters that will be invaluable at the scene …
The ship joins a Navy P-3C Orion maritime reconnaissance aircraft that has already deployed to New Zealand. The aircraft is based at Marine Corps Base Hawaii.
Department of conservation (DOC) ranger Mike Morrissey told stuff.co.nz that some seals were likely to have been killed in the landslide at Ohau Point, while others would be returning from sea to find their home gone:
Those seals generally come back to the area where they were born. They’ll go in there and it won’t be like anywhere they recognise before, so they’ll probably just go and breed on other parts of the coast.
The majority of that breeding colony [at Ohau Point] is completely gone. It’s just rock.
Environmentalist Kimberley Collins has shared this video of seals at Kaikoura’s Ohau Point – the area is believed to have been destroyed by landslides prompted by the earthquake:
Gutted to hear the seal breeding colony at Ohau Point has been destroyed in the quake. I loved watching them play in the rock pools! 💔 #EQNZ pic.twitter.com/H74I5xsWBg
— Kimberley Collins (@kimi_collins) November 15, 2016
The department of conservation has said that some seals would have been out at sea feeding and so may have escaped the impact, but that the slip was “likely to have resulted in casualties to seals”.
Buildings at risk of collapse in Wellington
Meanwhile, in Wellington, Molesworth Street in the CBD – just round the corner from the parliament – remains cordoned off amid fears an office building is facing collapse.
@Yakcall another view of building on Molesworth pic.twitter.com/K7Cg8yszne
— Matt W-S (@Yakcall) November 15, 2016
Wellington’s fire region manager, Brendan Nally, said on Tuesday:
We have a clear structural failure. What’s caused that will be determined later. The clear structural failure is a major beam, a vertical beam in the building, has been shorn.
It looks somewhat like a broken bone in the leg. It is fractured through. It is a major supporting beam. It is up above the fifth floor, so it is the top four floors.
Stuff.co.nz reports that an apartment building in the centre of the capital has also been evacuated over worries about its safety and stability. Part of Tennyson St and Lorne St are cordoned off, it reports.
Kaikoura seal sanctuary 'destroyed'
As relief efforts continue for people affected by the quake and its fallout, concerns are also shifting to the fate of wildlife, especially in the South Island.
Kaikoura’s famed seal sanctuary at Ohau Point is reported to have been wiped out by a landslide.
Ian Angus, manager of marine species and threats at the department of conservation (DOC), said:
It is clear from reports that the recent earthquakes have impacted upon wildlife, including seals, penguins and seabirds. DOC’s immediate priority in the aftermath of the earthquakes is to assist Civil Defence with the recovery effort, including ensuring that structures and tracks are safe.
DOC is aware there has been a large slip at Ohau Point, which is a specially protected seal sanctuary. Images indicate the landslips are likely to have resulted in casualties to seals.
Some seals will likely have been out at sea foraging and so may not have been impacted. There are still places north and south of Ohau Point where seals can haul themselves out to rest.
Another significant species impacted is the Hutton’s shearwater, and other species such as blue penguins may have been affected.
Seals and seabirds are often found breeding or resting in exposed areas, such as a cliff or seashore, and so may be prone to further slips or landslides.
It will be important that the safety of the researchers can be ensured before visiting seal or seabird colonies. For this reason, a full assessment of the impact of the earthquakes on our wildlife may take several weeks.
Although relief efforts – and international attention – have been focused on Kaikoura, which has been cut off from road access since the quake struck in the early hours of Monday, other communities have also been hit. And some feel they need more help than they are getting, as Eleanor Ainge Roy reports from Waiau, the town closest to the epicentre:
Waiau, in north Canterbury, is home to 280 people. Its name means flowing water in Māori. And flowing water has been the community’s main concern these last couple of days, after unstable bridges over the grey Waiau river made road access impossible for relief vehicles, or residents wanting to leave.
Although located only 80km (50 miles) south-west of Kaikoura – where a massive relief operation is under way – people in Waiau feel they have been left to fend for themselves.
Since the 7.5-magnitude quake, food supplies have been salvaged from the collapsed pub and Brenda Smith’s tea shop. An elderly woman’s oxygen bottle has been hooked up to a farm generator to keep her alive.
About 200 people who no longer have a place to call home are camping on the grass beside a primary school playground.
Initial estimates by surveyors flown in to inspect the damage to the town suggest at least 15 buildings may have to be demolished, leaving as many as half of the residents facing an uncertain future.
The fire chief, Hugh Wells, said he realised the community would need to mobilise rapidly because help would not be arriving any time soon.
“I basically thought, if we are this bad, how bad is the rest of New Zealand? We need to be ready to feed and look after ourselves for a couple of days, at least, before help kicks in,” said Wells, his eyes bloodshot with fatigue.
“We haven’t really started getting any help till today. It has been very frustrating watching all the reporters flying around taking pictures from the sky but not landing to help us or see if we are OK.”
The initial magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit just after midnight as Sunday moved into Monday – 60 hours later, New Zealand has been shaken by 1,718 quakes, some severe.
New Zealanders have been warned that aftershocks are likely to continue for some time yet.
12 pm update: 37 eqs in the last hour, 336 eqs in last 12 hrs (21 over M4) and 1718 eqs since the M7.5. Kaikoura Earthquake #eqnz #Kaikoura pic.twitter.com/uikMZNkQB4
— GeoNet (@geonet) November 15, 2016
Welcome to our continuing live coverage of the aftermath of Monday’s massive earthquake in New Zealand.
Relief efforts continue, with hundreds of people who have been stranded in Kaikoura, a coastal town in the South Island popular with tourists, starting to be shipped out to the HMNZS Canterbury, which has anchored nearby.
We will have all the latest news here through the day. If you’re affected by the quake and its aftermath, please do contact me via the comments below or on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.
