Although seven of the U.K. returnees have been found to be positive for the new variant of SARS-CoV-2, Karnataka is unlikely to witness a surge beyond what it has already witnessed, according to experts.
This is mainly because nearly half of the population in the State has already been exposed to COVID-19 by now and has developed immunity. This immunity is likely to work against the new strain too. Moreover, none of the primary and secondary contacts of the seven U.K. returnees have tested positive for the new strain so far. This is a good indication for the State, experts said.
Also, with the new variant circulating in the UK since September 2020, there is a possibility that it could have already been imported into the country and Karnataka as well. But, going by the considerable decline in the number of COVID-19 cases in the State since October, epidemiologists concurred that the new strain - despite being highly infectious - is unable to find dense pockets of susceptible (uninfected) people in the State.
Giridhar R. Babu, member, State’s Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), told The Hindu on Wednesday that it is highly unlikely that we would see a surge in cases beyond what we have already seen in the State.
“Travel to the U.K. was happening unhindered till a few days ago; we cannot be sure that persons infected with the new strain have not travelled here during that time. If so, the likelihood of seeing a surge now is unlikely,” he said.
V. Ravi, nodal officer for genetic confirmation for SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka and TAC member, said none of the contacts of the seven U.K. returnees who tested positive for the new strain traced so far have been infected. “This is a good indication for the State. In this context, we are unlikely to see a surge now. But there is a need to further intensify contact tracing and testing to ensure that no case is missed,” he said.
Moreover, the State has acted quickly this time. Within 48 hours of the Centre’s decision to halt flights from the U.K., the State traced and tested 1,614 patients and their primary and secondary contacts. “This was a quick response,” he said.
C.N. Manjunath, nodal officer for labs and testing of the State’s COVID-19 task force, said it is very clear that the mutant strain is unable to find a chunk of susceptible (uninfected) people as nearly 50% have developed immunity.
“We are talking about the U.K. strain but there can be different strains in different parts of the world. This is an immune escape phenomena. It is very important that people should not become complacent now,” he said.
He said the State should take up another round of aggressive testing of those who are in continuous contact with the public such as street vendors and delivery boys. “This will further help in checking any spread. Early tracing, testing, isolating and treating are vital,” he said.
All the three experts said that the State should not go slow on contact tracing and people should continue following the standard guidelines of SMS - social distancing, masking and sanitisation.
