Leeds United's start to the 2020/21 Premier League season has been an up-and-down ride, marred by some games in which the Whites failed to take all three points despite deserving to do so.
There have also been euphoric highs, such as the most recent victories over Everton at Goodison Park and a 5-2 thrashing of Newcastle United at Elland Road.
The Newcastle result was perhaps the first time this season where Leeds have truly put an opponent to the sword, converting a fair number of chances relative to how many they created.
Leeds peppered Karl Darlow in the Newcastle net, beating him on five occasions much to the delight of Marcelo Bielsa.
In doing so, they generated an Expected Goals total of 2.8 xG from their 25 shots at goal. That was 1.9 xG more than Newcastle managed with a meagre 0.9, according to FBRef.com.
Football statisticians Opta describe Expected Goals as a "measure of the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal".
Therefore, if a player shoots first time from a narrow angle quite far from goal, the xG value of that shot is likely to be very low.
Expected Points takes these single-game xG values and treats them as a normal result, so Leeds' 2.8 xG to Newcastle's 0.9 xG would see them earn three xPTS (Expected Points). However, in Leeds' 1-0 win over Sheffield United, they would have been expected to earn just a single point as the two sides' xG values were both 1.6 - indicating a draw would have been a fair result.
According to xG Philosophy - who recently published a book on Expected Goals - Leeds would currently sit ahead of Manchester United in the xPTS table.
This table - while not the actual standings - fairly reflects the dominance Leeds have enjoyed in games, placing them one point ahead of their actual tally, and this weekend's opponents.
Manchester United on the other hand can count themselves lucky in games this season, according to the xPTS table. It suggests that already they should be six points worse off than where they are in the actual table, meaning a regression could be imminent.
As per the altered standings, Leeds would place anywhere between 9th and 12th in the Premier League table, with Manchester United between 13th and 14th.
