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Health

New SA COVID-19 modelling predicts more cases and hospitalisations, school mask push

Health Minister Chris Picton says some elective surgery may be cancelled. (ABC News: Lincoln Rothall)

New COVID-19 modelling predicts more than 400 South Australian adults may need hospitalisation for the virus in the next week as new daily cases peak at 7,000.

The number of people currently hospital in the state fell below 300 today after reaching a record of 306 yesterday.

SA Health has reported 4,172 new infections today, along with three deaths — of a woman in her 50s, another in her 80s and a man in his 70s.

A total of 282 people are in hospital with COVID-19. 

"These numbers do bounce around — as people would be familiar from day to day — but we are seeing an average upwards trajectory in terms of hospitalisations at the moment," Health Minister Chris Picton said.

New University of Adelaide modelling released today predicts more than 400 adults in hospital with COVID-19 in a week's time.

"That clearly points to the pressure on our health system, the pressure to make sure we find available capacity in our health system for people who need admission for COVID," Mr Picton said.

SA Health usually only provides figures of all people in hospital with COVID-19, rather than splitting cases between adults and children.

Mr Picton said some non-urgent overnight elective surgery in public hospitals may be deferred or moved to private hospitals to find about 40 beds with COVID-19 patients.

Call for schoolchildren to wear masks

A meeting of the Emergency Management Council subcommittee of cabinet decided that the Department for Education would send a letter to schools and parents encouraging mask use when students return to class next Monday rather than mandating their use.

The move is similar to one made by the Victorian government.

"That's not going to be a mandated situation like we've had previously, but it will certainly be an encouragement of the benefits of wearing masks and that will be communicated over coming days from the education department and SA Health to parents," Mr Picton said.

Masks are currently required in South Australia in healthcare settings, pharmacies and on public transport.

Modelling released two weeks ago predicted a peak of 6,000 cases.

At the time, Police Commissioner Grant Stevens said that more than 300 people in hospital with COVID-19 could lead to a "conversation" about whether a state of emergency should be reinstated.

Risk of long COVID accumulates with reinfection, says Norman Swan.
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