A NEW poll has suggested Reform UK could be within touching distance of winning a majority in Westminster – without any Scottish MPs.
More in Common’s latest MRP projects Nigel Farage’s party could pick up as many as 290 seats in England and Wales. This would be more than twice as many as any other party.
In Scotland, the survey, based on polling over more than 10,000 people, finds that the SNP is building back its strength to around 2019 levels, and could win 42 out of the 57 available seats.
The SNP are projected to gain 31 seats from Scottish Labour, two from the Scottish Tories and one from the LibDems.
It claims Labour would gain Dundee Central, known as the Yes City, from the SNP’s Chris Law, while the party would retain the remaining eight seats it currently holds.
But, while Farage’s right-wing party is seeing a boost in the polls south of the border, the latest survey does not show them making a substantial breakthrough in Scotland.
Last month, an MRP based on YouGov polling data suggested Reform UK could win three seats north of the border.
And now, More in Common suggests they could increase their numbers by 285 seats at a general election, taking them to 290 in total. Labour would be left in opposition with 126, followed by the Conservatives on 81 and LibDems on 73.
You can compare the 2024 constituency winners with More in Common's predictions with our interactive map below.
SNP MP Stephen Gethins told The National: “Whilst Labour’s failure is giving rise to Nigel Farage, people in Scotland can see the SNP is the only party standing up for Scotland – it is clear that Westminster offers no solutions to the challenges people are facing just now.
"This is the price of Labour’s continuity on Brexit, Tory spending plans and targeting the most vulnerable in our society.
“The SNP will continue taking action to improve the lives of people in Scotland by improving our public services and growing our economy –and, in doing so, demonstrating how the full powers of independence will allow us to build a better future for everyone.”
The poll shows that Labour would lose the majority of its seats to Reform – 223 of them.
This would include many historically red constituencies in the North of England and Wales.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Health Secretary Wes Streeting would all lose their seats under the projection.
Luke Tryl, More in Common's UK director, said: "It is an unhappy birthday for the Prime Minister, his personal approval has hit an all time low, while Britons blame him rather than his Chancellor for the welfare mess and think he has lost control of his party.
“Meanwhile our new MRP shows Reform UK as the big winners from the Government’s failures.
“Although we are a long way from an election and much will change between, Nigel Farage’s Party are demonstrating that they are now close to the level where they could command an outright majority. Britain's political landscape has transformed entirely from just a year ago."
