Even though a new coalition government will likely be formed by June following the March 24 general election, chaos and instability are still on the horizon for Thailand's political climate.
Whether the government is set up by the pro-military Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which supports the incumbent premier Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha to return as prime minister, or the Pheu Thai Party-led camp, it will experience instability and will be lucky to last more than a year.
The next prime minister will be subject to intense scrutiny in parliament and by the public which could lead to an early resignation. Thailand seems to have become stuck in political polarisation that pits the pro-democracy camp against the pro-dictatorship one.
By Wednesday, the Election Commission (EC) will endorse 95% of MPs elect or 475 MPs from 500, as required by the constitution. The EC is expected to choose a formula for the calculation of party-list MPs that will make about 27 small parties eligible for seats in parliament despite their small wins.
These small parties support the PPRP. Not long after, the faces of a coalition government will be known and it will likely be a PPRP-led one if the EC goes with the predicted formula.
Meanwhile, the Future Forward Party (FFP), which is in the Pheu Thai-led camp, will lose some seats it would have gained under another calculation formula. That will make the Pheu Thai-led camp fail to have more than 250 MPs and thus it will lose the right to form a government.
The PPRP will also gain the upper hand because its prime ministerial candidate, Gen Prayut, will secure support from a handpicked bloc of 250 senators in a parliament vote for the next premier. The new constitution for the first time allows the senators to join MPs in such a vote.
A PPRP-led coalition government will have just 260 MP seats, making it a fragile administration. Its instability will stand as a time bomb. To ensure legislative and administrative stability, it should have at least 280 MPs. The collation will subject to intense power negotiations among the many partner parties including Bhumjaithai, the Democrats, Chartthaipattana, Chart Pattana and about 10 small parties (each of which will have just one MP seat). It will also be the beneficiary of any MPs who defect from the Pheu Thai-led camp.
Moreover, the media shareholding accusation against rising political star Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, FFP leader, has already resulted in a domino effect of similar charges being laid against 20 MPs from FFP, PPRP and the Democrats. If they end up being disqualified for violating the election law, there will be by-elections. And the PPRP-led coalition could suffer a loss of MPs following those poll reruns.
Leading such a fragile government, the PPRP will have to negotiate hard with the small parties who will demand positions in the cabinet or on parliament committees and play key roles in no-confidence votes or approval of budget bills. This is particularly vital for the first 2020 budget which will have to be tabled next month and approved soon afterwards, otherwise the prime minister will have to resign or dissolve parliament.
A PPRP-led government is also vulnerable to corruption. That is because many politicians have been frozen from their jobs for almost five years since the coup. They will look forward to reaping benefits by taking advantage of their MP and cabinet jobs. Certain of these parties and their politicians have a history of alleged corruption in previous state megaprojects. Additionally, all parties joining any coalition government will try to control state power so that they will gain a competitive edge in any new election.
More importantly, interrogation of the government by an opposition led by Pheu Thai and the FFP, as well as the public, will be more intense. Social media, which make information sharing easier, will facilitate the public's scrutiny. Gen Prayut himself will no longer have the sweeping power of Section 44 of the interim charter to protect him.
The government will also be subject to aggressive scrutiny from pro-democracy groups which the regime has slapped with lawsuits over the past years. If the FFP boss is disqualified from becoming an MP, he and his supporters will aggressively probe the government without giving it a honeymoon period.
Thai politics today is a fight between conservatives, who have backing from the anti-Thaksin Shinawatra elite and middle class, on one hand, and the left wing led by Mr Thanathorn who, in an era of political disruption, has managed to win support for his calls for political equality and the rejection of the armed forces' roles in politics.
Today, the FFP has become an unprecedented power broker in the country's political scene with the 6 million-plus popular votes it won in the general election and an estimate of at least 80 MPs.
Gen Prayut's pledge that he will maintain peace and order during the royal transition, and will not tolerate new street protests on threat of legal action against anyone involved, implies that the future political situation will be even more intense.
"I will definitely not let anyone hurt Thailand," he said.
Chairith Yonpiam is assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.
