New Mexico State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Live Stream, Picks, Best Bets
The Rio Grande Rivalry
Contact/Follow @MWCwire
Lobos want a rivalry win
The New Mexico Lobos (1-1) square off in week three against the New Mexico State.
Aggies (1-2) on Saturday, September 16, 2023, at University Stadium in the
Annual Rio Grande Rivalry.
If history indicates this game should be an old-fashioned Wild West
Shootout, as these teams are not too fond of each other, to put it mildly.
Having seen many Lobo/Aggie games over the years, you can see the oddsmaker’s numbers in this game, as it’s always pretty entertaining.
The Aggies come to University Stadium in Albuquerque for what looks like a whole house; ticket projections are over 30K, with many walking up to purchase tickets on their phones.
Head Lobo Coach Danny Gonzales has a long history in this game as a player, coach, and now head coach and looks to make a statement on the progression of his Lobos.
The Aggies lost on the road at Liberty to the Flames, 33-17, last Saturday to drop to 1-2 in Kill’s second season with the Aggies.
Head coach Jerry Kill led NMSU to a 7-6 campaign and a Quick Lane Bowl victory in his first season at the helm in 2022 for the Aggies.
.@CoachGonzUNM joined @NateKreckman on this week's #MWFB podcast ahead of @UNMLoboFB's matchup with NMSU on Saturday 🎧
Listen on Apple: https://t.co/Lc15eaKQl6
Listen on Spotify: https://t.co/fko8q2eoZo pic.twitter.com/9T8eH1SZ4b— Mountain West (@MountainWest) September 14, 2023
Dominate the line of scrimmage.
All games are won on the line of scrimmage, so the Lobos must be ready for a scrappy Aggie team dogfight.
The current Lobo players must understand that the NMSU Aggie team looks at this game as their Super Bowl and live for it.
They must match the energy but stay focused on the game plan Coach “G” and staff have given them to be the victors in this Rio Grande Rivalry game.
The Aggies, looking for a road win to try and get back to a .500 record, will have to go through their in-state rivals, the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque.
NMSU has lost the last five of seven games and is anxious to prove last year was not a fluke or luck in this 2023 year.
NMSU offense averages 483.3 total yards and 35.0 points per game, including 265.7 passing yards and 217.7 rushing yards, ranking them a respectable 25th in FBS D1 football.
Starting Quarterback Diego Pavia is passing for 715 yards, 6 T.D.s, and a 65.7 passing percentage at the helm of this Aggie offense.
Diego Pavia is an excellent leader and duel-threat Quarterback with 93 carries and 508 yards rushing but has given the ball up with either fumbles when run out of the pocket or interceptions, short throws on long balls.
So look for coach Kill to go to his backup in passing downs sometimes, especially with them returning four of the five receivers from last year.
Trent Hudson and Jonathan Brady are leading in receptions for the Aggies with 257 yards and four T.D.s; Jordin Parker has two receptions.
On the ground game, the Aggies are averaging 217.7 yards per game, with running back Monte Watkins leading with 161 yards and two T.D.s.
Running back Ahmonte Watkins is one very explosive running back that the Aggies like to run in shotgun situations, and he had an 80-yard touchdown against UMASS.
On the defensive side of the ball, they are allowing 31.7 points a game and 398.3 yards per game.
J.J. Dervil leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 17 tackles, Nikhil Webb Walker has 1.5 sacks, and Reggie Akles has two pass deflections.
The New Mexico State defense surrenders 398.3 total yards and 31.7 points per game, including 238.7 passing yards and 159.7 rushing yards. They were exceptional last year, ranking 29th in total defense and allowing just 24 points per game.
WHEN: Saturday, September 16, 2023
WHERE: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM
TIME: 8:00 PM ET, 6:00 PM MST
WEATHER: 80° High & Low in evening 57 ° sunny
RADIO: Lobo Radio Network
ANALYST: Robert Portnoy (play-by-play) & Dontrell Moore (Color)
SERIES RECORD: Lobos lead the series 73-3-5
LAST WEEK: Lobos defeated Tennessee Tech 56-10, Aggies lost to Liberty 33-17
Total/Over-Under: 51.5. New Mexico opens this game as 2-point favorites from
Odds: The over/under is set at 51.5.
GAME NOTES (PDF): |
This year, they have surrounded 67 points and 915 yards of offense against UMASS and Liberty.
They also gave up 248 passing yards to FCS Western Illinois, a huge red flag for you, the Lobos staff.
The Aggies lost mainstays Chris Ojoh and Trevor Brohard at linebacker and top corner Syrus Dumas and it does show.
Score with a balanced attack of rushing and passing.
So look for Lobos to exploit this defense with this solid rushing offense and passing with Hopkins behind center.
The Lobos come into the game with a record of 1-1 with a quarterback blowout loss to Texas Tech 52-10 and a win against FCS Tennessee Tech 56-10.
Dylan Hopkins tied a UNM record with four T.D.s in a single game with 273 yards on 13/17 passing, and his quarterback rating was an impressive 277.2.
He has a variety of options to throw the ball to, with the likes of junior WR Luke Wysong (who had 34 receptions for 291 yards in 2022), sophomore WR Caleb Medford (a TCU transfer), senior WR Jeremiah Hixon (who had 74 receptions for 918 yards and eight T.D.s in 2011 & 2022 at Alabama State), and 6-foot-5 JUCO transfer W.R. D.J. Washington.
