New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary on Tuesday will set up a general election that will be closely watched as a barometer for how voters are responding to the Trump administration.
Six Democrats are facing off for their party’s nomination to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, while Republicans have a five-way contest to pick their nominee.
The race has already become one of the most expensive nonpresidential primaries in U.S. history, with candidates and outside groups spending more than $122 million combined as of June 6, according to the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission.
The Democratic candidates include Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer; Newark Mayor Ras Baraka; Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop; former state Senate President Steve Sweeney; and Sean Spiller, president of the New Jersey Education Association.
Tuesday’s election also marks the first gubernatorial primary since New Jersey eliminated its “party line” system, which gave preferential ballot placement to candidates supported by powerful county party chairs. That change, along with the limited publicly available polling on the race, has given each Democratic candidate a potential path to the nomination, though it’s Sherrill who has emerged as the perceived front-runner.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll from last month found the congresswoman with the greatest base of support, at 28 percent. Fulop, Baraka and Gottheimer each had 11 percent, while Spiller had 10 percent and Sweeney had 5 percent.
In her campaign, Sherrill has highlighted her background as a Navy helicopter pilot and former federal prosecutor, as well as her role as a mother of four, similar to when she first ran for Congress in 2018 and flipped a Republican-held seat. She has the endorsement of most of the county parties in the state and EMILY’s List, which backs Democratic women who support abortion rights.
Baraka has pitched himself as the most progressive candidate in the field, while Fulop has also been appealing to progressive voters. Baraka made national headlines last month after he was briefly arrested for trespassing after a confrontation with federal authorities outside an immigration detention facility in Newark.
Spiller’s campaign has been boosted by a super PAC aligned with the union he leads that has spent at least $37.5 million on independent expenditures on his behalf.
Gottheimer, the former co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, has campaigned on affordability and lowering taxes, while the moderate Sweeney is seeking to be the first governor from South Jersey in three decades.
On the Republican side, former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli appears poised to win his party’s nomination for the second straight election after securing President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Ciattarelli held Murphy to a 3-point reelection win four years ago, a closer-than-expected contest that preceded the state’s 10-point shift to the right in last year’s presidential election.
Radio host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac and general contractor Justin Barbera are also seeking the Republican nomination.
Garden State Republicans are hoping to buck recent off-year election trends of voters rejecting the party in control in Washington, while Democrats are aiming to win a third consecutive gubernatorial election in New Jersey for the first time since the 1960s.
Besides New Jersey, Virginia is also holding elections for statewide executive positions this year. The commonwealth is set to hold its primaries next week, though both parties have presumed gubernatorial nominees who don’t face primary opposition: Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears.
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the New Jersey gubernatorial race as Leans Democratic.
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