Summary
The topline results are in in the New Hampshire primary. Here’s what we know so far:
- The 2016 presidential race broke into an open and clear insurgency in both parties against the political establishment, with formerly outsider candidates scoring huge victories in the New Hampshire primary.
- Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders won by large double-digit margins. Their respective wins were big enough that TV networks were able to call the races immediately after polls closed.
- Voter turnout in New Hampshire on a bitterly cold night was very large and appeared to be on track to break state records.
- Ohio governor John Kasich won his bet on the Granite State, finishing in second. He vowed to take his campaign national after a New Hampshire focus.
- The fight over third place on the Republican side was too close to call. Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio all appeared to be in the running.
- The stakes were high, as a fourth or fifth place finish in New Hampshire would make it more difficult for Bush or others to justify carrying on. “This campaign is not dead,” Bush told supporters.
- Governor Chris Christie announced he was returning to New Jersey to “take a deep breath” after what looked like a sixth-place finish in a state where he went for broke.
- Democratic runner-up Hillary Clinton said “I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people,” but she vowed to “fight for every vote in every state.”
- Sanders asked viewers to donate on his web site “to take the fight to Nevada, South Carolina and the states on Super Tuesday.”
- Sanders said his big New Hampshire victory would “echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California,” and announced a political revolution.
- “We are going now to South Carolina, we’re gonna win in South Carolina,” Trump concluded his speech. “I love you all.”
Updated
Meanwhile ... In a just-released interview with French conservative magazine Valeurs Actuelles, Trump has accused German Chancellor Angela Merkel of making “a tragic mistake” in allowing migrants into Germany.
In the real estate billionaire’s first in-depth campaign interview with European media, he warned that the refugee crisis could trigger revolutions and even the end of Europe.
“If you don’t treat the situation competently and firmly, yes, it’s the end of Europe. You could face real revolutions,” Trump was quoted as saying.
The 69-year-old property magnate also said Brussels had become a breeding ground for terrorists and some neighbourhoods in Paris and elsewhere in France had become no-go zones. “Unfortunately, France is not what it used to be, and neither is Paris,” he said.
He also said tight French gun laws were partly responsible for the killing of dozens of people at the Bataclan concert hall last November by Islamist militants.
“I always have a gun with me. Had I been at the Bataclan, I can tell you I would have opened fire,” he said.
(h/t: Reuters)
Updated
When Marco Rubio took the stage before supporters after an underwhelming performance in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, the Florida senator was brutally honest: It was his own fault.
Rubio had stumbled badly in the last Republican presidential debate, offering a robotic performance in a critical exchange with New Jersey governor Chris Christie just two days before voters took to the polls. And despite Rubio and his team’s best efforts to brush the moment aside, the senator acknowledged as the results rolled in that it mattered.
“A lot of people are disappointed. I’m disappointed with tonight,” Rubio told a couple hundred supporters in a hotel ballroom. “But I want to tell you that disappointment is not on you. It’s on me. It’s on me.”
“I did not do well on Saturday night. So listen to this: That will never happen again.”
The crowd of voters and volunteers erupted at first in disagreement, seeking to cheer him on despite his lackluster showing. But they quickly broke into thunderous applause as he switched gears to a more optismistic outlook of the future.
“Tonight we did not wind up where we wanted to be, but that does not change where we are going to wind up at the end of this process,” Rubio said.
“Not all days are going to be great days,” he added. “We’re not always going to get things the way we want, but in the end I’m confident that not only will this campaign be successful, but America will be successful as well.”
Updated
A note on how delegates are awarded in New Hampshire
Every state party has its own rules for awarding delegates, representatives at the national party conventions, to candidates.
Some states are winner-take-all. Others are proportionate based on share of statewide vote. Others are proportionate based on congressional district. The parties keep separate sets of rules for this, of course.
Many states require a candidate to get above a certain percentage of the vote to win any delegates at all. The Republican race in New Hampshire is like that!
In New Hampshire on the Republican side you need to get 10% of the vote to come away with any delegates at all.
Candidates currently with less than 10% of the vote in New Hampshire, with 73.33% reporting: Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson. If they don’t clear 10% they forfeit their percentages – to whoever wins. In this case Donald Trump.
So, ironically, a vote for Christie tonight could end up being, in effect, a vote for Trump.
Marco Rubio is just over the hurdle, for now, at 10.5%.
Here’s why Bernie Sanders is heading to New York City tomorrow. It’s not for a Wall Street fundraiser. It’s to have breakfast with the Rev. Al Sharpton:
The Latest: Bernie Sanders heading to New York for breakfast with the Rev. Al Sharpton. https://t.co/9DlfyFTmP6 pic.twitter.com/N4waOrNlcK
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) February 10, 2016
Here’s video from inside the room earlier with Hillary Clinton, who kicked off the series of candidates’ speeches, victory and vanquished.
She thanks the crowd for “the passion and purpose you all show for this campaign” – and you can hear it in the din:
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino adds this from the room:
The theme of the night at Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire primary party was best summed up by the Taylor Swift song that plays on loop at every event: Shake it off.
“I know I have some work to do,” Clinton said. The former President Bill Clinton and daughter, Chelsea Clinton stood by her side as she spoke.
Clinton congratulated her rival Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and said to his supporters: “Even if they are not supporting me now, I support them.”
Several voters said they expected the result and were not surprised to see Sanders win in New Hampshire.
“It’s a marathon, not a sprint, and I think she’s going to deliver in the end, I really do,” said Dawn Harkness of New London, Connecticut.
The Guardian’s Matt Sullivan reports from inside the Kasich event on what he just heard – and draws a contest with a certain other victorious Republican tonight:
John Kasich, speaking to an increasingly packed banquet hall across town from Sanders moments after Trump stole the top of TV’s 10pm hour, was humble.
He was, after all, still the man of the hour.
“I want to congratulate Donald Trump,” he said to boos. “No, no - he won fair and square.”
He chastised winning “by being extreme” and talked of overcoming “the darkness”. He said people were able to come to his town halls “and feel safe”. (At Trump’s rallies, a voice on the loudspeaker reads boilerplate on how to get protesters escorted out instead of beaten up.)
Kasich played the role of a calm underdog suddenly taking on the big attack dog, with a proposition seeking to re-introduce himself on prime time: “The media kept saying, Can you do this? Can you finish high?”
He had.
“There’s something going on,” Kasich said. “There’s magic in the air with this campaign.”
The Ohio governor, who had more events in more places than any candidate in this state, was sure of it: “Something big happened tonight.”
He complained of “tens of millions spent against us” in negative advertising but, once again, played the anti-Trump: “We never went negative because we have more good to sell,” he said.
He talked about the heart, not the head. He talked about giving hugs.
“Maybe – just maybe – we are turning the page on a dark part of American politics, because tonight the light overcame the darkness.”
It was a veiled shot at Trump - an optimistic one, but it drew the biggest cheer of the night. Except for the hugs part. And the joke about how “Bernie talks so long” and how “it ain’t working here” for Clinton. And the time the announcers said on Fox News here that Trump had won, because second place was good enough in New Hampshire.
There were no stickers. The hats didn’t say MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN; they had the logos of teams from Ohio and Detroit.
“We have some real talent in the Republican Party,” Trump had said to the cameras.
This, apparently was it.
“There’s so much gonna happen, if you don’t have a seatbelt,” Kasich said of the road ahead, “go get one!”
Updated
Thank you, New Hampshire!
Thank you, New Hampshire! Departing with my amazing family now! #FITN #NHPrimaryhttps://t.co/rbFfcq8gQq pic.twitter.com/73aoZk8uMG
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 10, 2016
Thank you to the people of New Hampshire, I love you! Now, off to South Carolina.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 10, 2016
Updated
Christie to head back to New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie has announced, after staking his candidacy on a strong showing in New Hampshire with more than 190 events here, that he is not heading to South Carolina, scene of the next Republican primary – but home to the Garden State:
We’ve decided that we’re going to go home to New Jersey tomorrow and we’re going to take a deep breath.”
BREAKING: Christie heading home to New Jersey to 'take a deep breath,' take stock of presidential bid.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 10, 2016
Updated
Rubio: 'I did not do well on Saturday night'
Guardian political reporter Sabrina Siddiqui live-tweeted Marco Rubio’s speech moments ago, in which the Florida senator expressed regret for a robotic performance at the last Republican debate:
Rubio says he called Trump to congratulate him. Some in crowd boo. “No no, he worked very hard,” Rubio says.
Rubio: “Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It’s on me.”
WOW. Rubio tells crowd: "I did not do well on Saturday night … and that will never happen again."
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) February 10, 2016
Rubio: “Tonight we did not wind up where we wanted to be, but that does not change where we are going to wind up at the end of this process”
Rubio: “I am confident that when this process is done, this nation will rediscover and re-embrace the principles that made her great.”
Bush: 'This campaign is not dead'
Jeb Bush speech following New Hampshire primary results. #NHPrimary https://t.co/iQi1PGKT9a
— Paul Owen (@PaulTOwen) February 10, 2016
Jeb Bush, who appears to have had a stronger showing than expected today, just gave his post-results speech.
He was introduced by South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham, who dropped out of the presidential race and backed Bush in December. “Bush is back because of New Hampshire,” he said. “South Carolina here we come!” he said, referring to the next primary.
“The pundits had it all figured out, last Monday night, when the Iowa caucuses were complete. They said that the race was now a three-person race between two freshman senators and a reality TV star. And, while the reality TV star is still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the race, and for that I am really grateful.”
He added: “This campaign is not dead. We’re going to South Carolina.”
Lauding his own record as governor of Florida, Bush said: “Government should not grow faster than our ability to pay for it, and under a Bush administration it will not do.
“I will be a conservative candidate who embraces conservative values and I will do it just as I did as governor of the state of Florida: pro-life, pro-second amendment, embracing strong, wholesome family life.
“We also need someone who can defeat Hillary Clinton in the fall,” he said, to chants of “Jeb! Jeb! Jeb!” “Not just Hillary Clinton, but apparently Bernie Sanders as well,” he added to laughter.
The scene before the speech was not quite as lively:
Uptown Funk at Jeb Bush party. This place is jumping! #nhprimary https://t.co/yEwGIF3gKw
— Paul Owen (@PaulTOwen) February 10, 2016
Updated
We’re rounding up speeches by Cruz and Rubio. Cruz says he finished “far better than anyone expected” in New Hampshire.
Then Cruz looks at upcoming contests and licks his chops. “Washington liberals may find South Carolina far less hospitable environs,” he says, in a certain allusion to Kasich. After that, on 1 March, a slew of southern states vote, in the so-called SEC primary, named for the football conference.
Here was that big moment at the Sanders rally:
Kasich implies he’s getting the cane, as in it’s time to get offstage. He says the Democrats over-talked.
“Bernie talked so long I thought he was going to hit his 77th birthday!” says Kasich. “Hillary– you just need to say a little bit because it ain’t workin’ here. It’s not working here! And it’s not gonna work because I’m coming back in November.”
Applause.
Sanders says he’s headed for South Carolina, and Nevada, and then he alludes to the fact that on 15 March, the presidential contest will arrive in Ohio, a winner-take-all state, delegate-wise.
We’ll end up in the Midwest, and you just wait, let me tell you, there’s so much gonna happen, if you don’t have a seatbelt, go get one.
Applause and he’s out.
Kasich: 'I'm going to go slower'
Kasich says he’ll wake up every single day to make sure every American has a job in the United States of America.
“We’re gonna solve the problems of America, not by being extreme, not by reminding everyone that first we’re Republican or a Democrat” but by inviting every American in, he says.
Kasich says “the wonderful people of New Hampshire have changed me... as we got closer and closer to those 100 town halls... people for some reason were able to come to these town halls and feel safe.”
Kasich tells the story of a man who cried in his arms, saying his son had cancer and he felt he had failed to warn him.
Kasich told the man it wasn’t his fault. The man later contacted his campaign to say a weight had been lifted from his shoulders.
He describes other wrenching scenes from those town halls.
“When you are in settings like that, you begin to learn something. There are too many people in America that don’t feel connected. They have victories and nobody to celebrate it with them.. losses with no one to share.”
Kasich says what the country needs is jobs, but more than that, the country needs a return - it sounds like a return – “to the America that I know. Where we all slow down our lives. Because we’re all made to change the world... if we would just slow down” and be nice to one another.
“When you’re in such a hurry to leave the driveway or leave the shopping center...[hug that person instead.]
“You see it doesn’t take government. It takes our hearts. Our hearts to change America... I’ve become more convinced about what it takes to be a political leader.
“From this day forward I’m going to go slower, and spend my time listening, and healing, and helping, and bringing people together.”
Updated
Kasich gets a Kasich! Kasich! cheer.
“Something big happened tonight, and let me tell you what it is.” He says that despite millions spent against them in negative ads, “we never went negative.”
The crowd cheers.
“Maybe, just maybe, we are turning the page on a dark part of American politics,” he says, as Trump firms up his 35% victory.
Kasich: 'there's magic in the air'
Kasich continues to thank his crew.
“I want to tell you. There’s no way to say this appropriately. The media kept saying, can you finish high?
“You know what I said? I have an insurance policy. It’s you... how does a guy like me thank you for the countless hours” of volunteer work?
“But you know, there’s something else going on... there’s magic in the air with this campaign, because we don’t see it as just a campaign [but] as an opportunity to change the country.”
Trump wraps; Kasich up
Trump finishes:
We are going now to South Carolina, we’re gonna win in South Carolina. I love you all. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Here’s Kasich taking the stage. He thanks his family and NH senator John Sununu.
Trump 'I am going to be the greatest jobs president that god ever created'
Trump: “I am going to be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. Remember that.”
Then he says that the unemployment is not 5.5%, like the bureau of labor statistics says, but actually 42%.
Then he immediately says, “we’re gonna knock the hell outta Isis.”
Sanders first Jewish-American to win a primary
Bernie Sanders made history on Tuesday night as he became the first Jewish-American to win a presidential primary.
The milestone falls just eight days after Ted Cruz became the first Hispanic-American to win a presidential nominating contest with his win in the Iowa Caucuses.
Sanders is not the first Jewish-American to run for president. Both former Pennsylvania senator Arlen Specter and former Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman mounted unsuccessful campaigns for the White House in 1996 and 2004, respectively. Further, the Republican nominee for president in 1964, Barry Goldwater, was of Jewish descent but was a practicing Episcopalian.
But Sanders is the first Jewish-American candidate, not to mention the first non-Christian candidate of any denomination, to win a state in a presidential primary.
However, if nominated, he will not have been the first Jew to receive votes in the Electoral College. Lieberman was Al Gore’s vice presidential nominee in 2000, in his ultimately unsuccessful presidential campaign.
As Trump talks, Sabrina Siddiqui sits through a silent Rubio party. It sounds like they’re looking for something to celebrate – or maybe, for some reason, they have a vendetta against Chris Christie?
There were incredibly loud cheers at Rubio watch party when Fox declared Chris Christie out of the running for top-tier finish.
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) February 10, 2016
Rubio supporters watch Trump in glum silence. Then twenty-something guy with Marco 2016 button breaks it: "F-ck."
— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) February 10, 2016
Utter silence at Rubio watch party throughout Donald Trump's victory speech.
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) February 10, 2016
Updated
“I wanted to thank the other candidates, OK?” Trump says. “Now that I’ve got that out of the way.”
“What do we really want to thank, right? We want to thank the people of New Hampshire!”
He’s still thanking people. “We’re not going to forget you. Remember, you started it.”
You know when I came out here at the end of Bernie’s speech.
Congratulations to Bernie in all fairness. But I heard parts of Bernie’s speech – he wants to give away the country!
We want to make America great again, but we’re going to do it the old-fashioned way. We’re going to beat China and Japan.
He slides into his stump speech / riff-template.
Updated
Trump: 'we learned a lot about ground games in one week'
“We are going to make America great again,” Trump begins. “I want to thank everybody, but I really have to begin by paying homage to my parents.”
He thanks his sisters, his “fantastic” brother Robert, and his late brother Fred, who died of alcoholism.
Trump continues to thank his family. “We have to start with Melania. What she puts up with, oh. she said right from the beginning, she said, ‘you know if you run, you’re going to win.”
Trump continues to thank his family members and describe their careers and what they’ve done for him.
He thanks his New Hampshire staff: “we learned a lot about ground games in one week,” he says.
The crowd chants, USA! USA!
Don't think I've ever heard Trump thank his parents and siblings before on the stump
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 10, 2016
Updated
Here comes Trump
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 10, 2016
...meanwhile, at the Ben Carson gathering...
Bob Dees, chairman of @RealBenCarson campaign, on Carson running at 2% in NH: "This is not even below expectations"
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) February 10, 2016
Sanders: to Nevada, South Carolina – and beyond!
Sanders says his victory in New Hampshire represents the American dream and it’s vital to preserve its potential:
“I am the son of a Polish immigrant who came to this country speaking no English and having almost no money,” he says. “My father worked every day of his life and never had much.. my mother who died at a young age always dreamed.. of getting a home of her own but she never realized that dream.
“Neither one of my parents could ever have dreamed that I would ever be here tonight, standing as a candidate for president of the United States.
“This is the promise of America. And this is the promise we must keep alive for future generations.
“What began last week in Iowa, and what voters here confirmed tonight, is nothing short of a political revolution.”
Sanders closes on a Buzz Lightyear note:
New Hampshire, thank you again! And now it’s on to Nevada South Carolina and beyond!”
Bernie Sanders’ just got a big cheer when he criticized “the media establishment”. I’m not surprised. We journalists should remind ourselves that even if America’s trust in government is at a historic low, so too is US trust in the media.
The chart below shows the latest numbers from Gallup.
Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts is interviewing people here at the Bernie Sanders victory party:
One of many myths about the Bernie Sanders campaign is that is propelled only by support among young voters.
But two volunteers in the crowd at his victory party in Concord here tonight say support from older voters in New Hampshire was a crucial factor in their conversations on the doorsteps, and the key issue? Campaign finance and ties to Wall Street.
“The money from speaking fees and rich donors was the big issue when we went door-to-door,” said 73-year-old Kay Cushman.
“People just don’t trust her,” added Sandy Morris, another older volunteer. “I hope she realises that going negative against Bernie on this didn’t help her here.”
Perhaps not unsurprisingly these are the first issues that Clinton addresses when she speaks to her campaign party, but there are scoffs in the room (and some booing) over at the Sanders event.
Kasich takes second place in New Hampshire
Based on returns, partial returns and projections, the Associated Press has deemed Ohio governor John Kasich the second-place finisher in New Hampshire.
A glance at our results widget up there has Kasich at about 16% to Trump’s 34%.
BREAKING: Ohio Gov. John Kasich finishes second in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 10, 2016
Updated
Well the New York Daily News has taken a rosy view of Donald Trump’s New Hampshire victory:
Tomorrow's front page:
— New York Daily News (@NYDailyNews) February 10, 2016
DAWN OF THE BRAIN DEAD - Trump comes back to life with N.H. win: https://t.co/rkj242rGEf pic.twitter.com/LRWPDIJJfL
“They’re throwing everything at me except for the kitchen sink, and I have a feeling that kitchen sink is coming soon as well,” Sanders cracks.
But his campaign is about thinking big not small, he says.
Sanders continues his stump speech. We cast an eye across the landscape...
... and the other campaigns are saying that Ohio governor John Kasich, who has been holding in second place behind Trump in New Hampshire as the results come in, won’t be able to keep it up in South Carolina, the next state for the Republicans.
Bush team bullish in SC: @timodc says Kasich "ran a one-state campaign and we don’t expect him to be a viable threat for the nomination"
— Ed O'Keefe (@edatpost) February 10, 2016
He might have a better chance of performing well after people have heard of him?
Sand-whatnow?
In the flurry of reporting, poor old Bernie Sanders has had his name mispronounced several times. And I’m not talking about uncertainty over whether it’s Sarn-ders (San as in harm) or Sahnders (“San” as in ham). I’m talking about people referring to the Democratic presidential candidate as “Bernie Sandals” and “Bernie Sandwiches”.
I wondered how many different ways people might get it wrong. According to the Collins online dictionary, there are 121 possible errors people might make when slipping up on words that start with sand. They include:
Sand (duh)
Sandman (a magical person who puts children to sleep)
Sandwort (a plant, which, according to Collins has “white or pink solitary flowers”)
Don’t worry. We’re here to help. This is apparently how it’s done.
Here’s one way to keep it interesting? If you like your election results like you like your vacations: prolonged.
Real drama at this point is whether Bernie's margin will be bigger than Trump's
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 10, 2016
Sanders asks for funds to 'take the fight to Nevada, South Carolina'
Sanders:
I am going to New York city tonight and tomorrow, Sanders says. But I am not going to hold a fundraiser on Wall St. Instead I am going to hold a fundraiser right here, right now, across America. My request is, please go to berniesanders.com and contribute. Please help us raise the money that we need to take the fight to Nevada, South Carolina and the states on Super Tuesday.
So there it is, that’s our fundraiser. Pretty quick!
“People want real change,” Sanders says. And he doesn’t let the media off:
As Bernie talks of "sending a message to the media establishment" the crowd turn, stomp their feet and shake their fists at the press riser.
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) February 10, 2016
The Trump party is watching Sanders, and they’re nicer to him than they were to Clinton:
No one at Trump booing Bernie at all. Hillary was ferociously heckled by people here.
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 10, 2016
At Trump victory party, Hillary appears on the TV screens. Boos, cries of "liar" and "Benghazi". A lot of hate in the room #NHPrimary
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) February 10, 2016
Updated
Sanders promises to take win 'all over the country'
Sanders says his victory and its message will “echo from Wall Street to Washington, from Maine to California. And that is that the government of our great country belongs to all of people, and not just a handful of the country.”
He says at the start of his campaign in New Hampshire, they had no organization or money and they were taking on the most powerful political machine in the USA.
Sanders refers to “what appears to be a record-breaking voter turnout.”
Because of a Yuge voter turnout. And I say YUGE, we won. Because we harnessed the energy and the excitement that the Democratic party will need to succeed in November.
He has a big of a frog in his throat.
He calls the electorate “enthusiastic and aroused.”
“That is what will happen all over this country,” he says, to more big cheers.
Tonight we serve notice to the economic and political establishment of this country that the American peple will not accept a corrupt campaign finance system... and we will not accept a rigged economy.”
Updated
Sanders’s supporters won’t let him talk. They prefer to cheer.
“Thank you, New Hampshire!” he says. More cheering. Sanders continues:
Shortly after the polls closed, secretary Clinton called and was very gracious in her congratulations, I think her for her call, and I congratulate her and her supporters for the vigorous campaigning.
And let me take this opportunity to thank the many many thousands of volunteers here in the Granite State who worked so tirelessly... We won because of your energy. Thank you all.
Big cheers. How to describe it? It’s loud.
Updated
Sanders takes stage
The crowd here in Concord at the Sanders victory party is very happy.
Here’s the winner now. Let’s listen!
Clinton tells supporters: “You are the reason we are going to win the nomination, and then win this election together! Thank you very much!”
Former president Bill Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea Clinton, onstage with her, applaud.
Updated
Clinton: 'I know I have some work to do'
Clinton:
I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people, but ... even if they are not supporting me now, I support them. Because I know, I’ve had a blessed life, but I also known what it’s like to stumble and fall. It’s not whether you get knocked down that matters. It’s whether you get back up.
She’s speaking with passion. This speech is neither defeated nor defeatist.
Updated
“We also have to break through the barriers in bigotry,” Clinton says. Her campaign has announced she will be joined on the trail by African-American parents who have lost children to gun violence.
She says African-American parents shouldn’t have to worry about their children being shot, immigrant families should not have to worry about a midnight knock on the door and the LGBT community shouldn’t have to worry about losing their job from discrimination.
She calls for equal pay for women, to more big cheers.
Clinton: 'I will work harder than anyone'
“People have every right to be angry,” Clinton says, talking about people in economic dire straits – not about her supporters. “But they’re also hungry, they’re hungry for solutions. What are we going to do?...
“Who is the best change maker? And here’s what I promise: I will work harder than anyone to actually make the changes to make your lives better.”
She seems to be slowly incorporating more of Sanders’ message - which seems smart, given his current 18-point lead in New Hampshire.
The rally is pretty loud. Supporters showing their support.
Clinton: 'we're going to fight for every vote'
Clinton is speaking at her event.
She thanks her supporters.
“I want to say, I still love New Hampshire and I always will!” she says, to cheers.
“Now we take this campaign to the whole country. We’re going to fight for every vote in every state. We’re going to make a real difference in people’s lives.”
From the candidates
To @BernieSanders, congratulations. To New Hampshire, thank you. And to our volunteers: I’m so grateful for what you built. Now, onward. -H
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) February 10, 2016
The media says we’re going to win but we can't take anything for granted. Please, stay in line and practice democracy. Every vote matters.
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) February 10, 2016
Trump supporters see road to White House
The Guardian’s Ben Jacobs is at the Trump party, where supporters feel “great” and “vindicated”:
Sandy Woodmansee, an ardent Trump supporter from Epping, New Hampshire, who boasted that he had been to more Trump events than anyone but the candidate himself, told the Guardian “I feel great. I feel like it was worth it.”
The ardent Trump supporter and political newcomer did express a touch of sadness for supporters of losing candidates. “I don’t know how someone can spend so much time and energy and end up with 2 or 4 or 8 percent.”
Trump party is heaving. The bar doing very brisk business. Lots here adamant that Donald Trump is on his way to the White House #NHPrimary
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) February 10, 2016
Stephen Stepanek, a Republican state representative, who boasted of being the first elected official in the country to endorse Donald Trump, exulted to the Guardian that he felt “vindicated.”
The loyal Trump supporter, who insisted that he never doubted Trump’s campaign after his second place finish in Iowa, said “this will be our Republican nominee who will ultimately be the President of the United States he is going to make America great again.”
He was planning on going down to South Carolina eventually to campaign for the real estate mogul but he was enjoying the result tonight. “I’ve been through the highs, I’ve been through the lows and this is the best high right now,” he said.
The mood is picking up at the Clinton rally, writes the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino:
The room is remaining fairly buoyant despite the big loss. Clinton is expected to speak here shortly #FITN pic.twitter.com/jUbIHHitaS
— Lauren Gambino (@LGamGam) February 10, 2016
A little taste of the atmosphere here at Clinton's New Hampshire primary party in Hooksett pic.twitter.com/LQrnSkfKTE
— Lauren Gambino (@LGamGam) February 10, 2016
Updated
Clinton called Sanders to concede
Clinton called Sanders about 8.15pm to congratulate him, according to source here at Bernie party.
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) February 10, 2016
Bush leaves scene of Kasich party
Jeb Bush just left the hotel here in Concord where John Kasich is holding a party that is getting more crowded with every precinct that comes in, writes the Guardian’s Matt Sullivan:
This is the battle for second place, and if these two Republicans passing in the night are any early indication (Bush’s party in Manchester doesn’t even officially start for a few minutes), the Ohio governor is winning.
Asked by the Guardian if he’d settle for third here, the Florida governor walked away and told a voter “I love New Hampshire”.
Down the hall, it looked like New Hampshire loved John Kasich a little bit more:
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What does the national polling look like
With all this focus on one state (and a state which is whiter and wealthier than the rest of the US too) it’s worth checking in with the wider picture.
Although Trump and Sanders appear to have walked away from New Hampshire as easy winners, nationally their fortunes are looking very different. Polling averages released by Real Clear Politics showed that Trump’s lead has fallen over the past week – from having the support of 36% of Republicans at the start of February to 30% today while his nearest rival Ted Cruz inched ahead one percentage point to 21%.
Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton has comfortably maintained her lead for almost three weeks – the former secretary of state has been over 10 percentage points ahead of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
Sanders camp: 'we are a better campaign'
Senior Sanders staff see this decisive win in New Hampshire as their ticket to the genuine national campaign momentum that has so far proved difficult to achieve, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
A major television advertising blitz is planned from tomorrow in a number of markets where they have yet to compete and they believe they can now outspend the opposition with the help of soaring individual donations.
Chief adviser Tad Devine also told the The Guardian he is increasingly confident of securing union support to help the campaign in Nevada, scene of their next and perhaps most important showdown with Clinton yet.
“People need to understand something,” said a passionate Devine. “We are a better campaign. We are a better resourced campaign. We have more people on the ground. We are demonstrating that resource superiority by going on television all across this country. We are redeploying hundreds of people who worked on this campaign [in New Hampshire]. We are happy to compete with them in the air and on ground anywhere in this country.”
We’re waiting to hear from Trump in Manchester...
Waiting for the Donald. Crowd at Trump victory party eagerly anticipating their man pic.twitter.com/giagTtWLXo
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) February 10, 2016
Trump supporter Jack Martin at his victory party pic.twitter.com/rquUtGNEnL
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) February 10, 2016
One tidbit of conventional political wisdom that’s often been bandied about this election season is that – was that – Florida senator Marco Rubio was the candidate that Democrats feared most. He’s young, eloquent and Latino with a record of moderation on immigration, though he’s run away from that.
Rubio was hailed as the somehow winner of the Iowa caucuses, despite his third-place finish there, behind Trump and Cruz. Rubio was hot. He was ascendant.
Then he ran into a wall named Chris Christie at Saturday’s debate.
Christie’s attack on Rubio’s rhetoric as emptily repetitive seemed to strike a chord with voters and visibly struck its target. Rubio sweated through the rest of the night and appeared days later not to have regained his mojo, repeating himself on the stump.
So what did Christie get for his troubles? Well, right now in New Hampshire – with admittedly with less than 18% reporting – he’s in sixth, right behind... Marco Rubio.
Democrats very grateful tonight for Christie’s murder-suicide play against Rubio.
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 10, 2016
Clinton campaign concedes
Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, said the campaigns were “splitting the first two contests” after her extremely narrow victory in Iowa, calling Sanders’s victory in New Hampshire “an outcome we’ve long anticipated”.
“The nomination will very likely be won in March, not February, and we believe that Hillary Clinton is well positioned to build a strong – potentially insurmountable – delegate lead next month,” he wrote in a memo to reporters, which focused in large part on Clinton’s strength among African American and Hispanic voters. “They know her, trust her and are excited about her candidacy,” Mook said.
He added: “Senator Sanders has unarguably tapped into real feelings of anger and frustration among voters. But what Hillary gets - and what she’s been fighting for her whole life - is the need to break down all the barriers that hold Americans back from living up to their own God-given potential, including systemic racism and discrimination.”
Updated
Second place isn’t last place
The contest might be over for the crown, but among Republicans, the battle for second place is raging on.
Currently, there are less than 7 percentage points separating John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio according to our live results. Those results will be important for the coming months. Being relegated to third or even fourth place could damage Rubio’s credibility as a serious contender for the nomination.
Intermission from avalanche of results: Video: Escaped pig shows up at New Hampshire polling station
Was this pig trying to block a Trump victory? The polling sites your blogger visited today were throbbing with democracy but nothing this cool.
Updated
From Guardian US columnist Jeb Lund, live in Tampa:
The only two questions after the New Hampshire Republican primary results are by how much Trump eventually wins and how hard the Republican Party tries to rationalize this while being frog-marched to a buffet full of crow. The answer to both is probably a lot.
If you take a dim view of America, Trump’s New Hampshire win wasn’t hard to see coming. (Heck, you can go back to 2011.) Scaring people silly and then soothing them with nonsense promises is not a new formula, and Trump is showman enough that he ends the horror show that is his version of the United States with everyone at peace, assured of our heroism. It’s a good story.
To a certain extent, every candidate tells a version of that story. (Replace “Mexicans” and “terrorism” with “Republicans” and “birth control”, and you have the anxious core of Hillary Clinton’s pitch, for instance.) So it will be interesting to see to what extent the GOP willingly brings the Trump story within the tent, if only to prove that conservatism still cannot lose.
As robust as his militarism and top 1% tax break is, the Trump story is straight-up populist demagoguery. All those people didn’t show up to the polls to return money to the investor class; they’re scared about losing their jobs overseas, seeing stuff blow up and losing their Medicare and Social Security – and those last aren’t core conservative appeals.
If anything, the average conservative candidate campaigns on promising that Medicare and Social Security will eventually be destroyed, so we’re better off destroying it now on purpose. Meanwhile, free trade is sold via cheap goods and the occasional contortion about how offshoring jobs provides a net value. (The economy is evolving! In the meantime, you can drive an Uber!)
Trump has explicitly rejected both those ideas, and that’s going to be mighty hard to absorb within the conservative narrative, considering that his platform rejects at least a quarter century of it.
That is the only joy of seeing a screw-headed, violent bigot take one step closer to the presidency: he’s going to make life extremely difficult for a bunch of monsters just like him.
Chill in the air at Clinton rally
The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino sends greetings from Hillary Clinton’s “not-so fun New Hampshire primary night ‘party’”:
It’s cold. Snow showers are forecast. The press were kept outside for nearly one hour - some longer - while US secret service agents cleared reporters. Once inside, everyone discovered the Wifi doesn’t work. And that’s not all!
While some journalists still languished in the freezing cold, Clinton’s campaign conceded defeat to Bernie Sanders.
Now we’re listening to Clinton’s playlist on loop while we wait for her to address the crowd. She’s expected to speak imminently.
[Sounds fun! We’re at the Sanders party, and it’s like this:]
This is how @berniesanders fans feel pic.twitter.com/ZgRrmb57wk
— April Burbank (@aprilburbank) February 10, 2016
Late last year, an article from the New Yorker posed the question “are polls ruining democracy?” and considered how our obsession with numbers is having negative consequences for political discourse because they decide things like who gets to stand on stage at political debates.
The AP has just effectively called the winner of the Democratic and Republican races based on polling. Thinking about all the voters in New Hampshire who are still waiting in line to have their democratic say, I’m reminded of that New Yorker piece.
BREAKING: Sanders, Trump win the New Hampshire primaries. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 10, 2016
Once upon a time, about a week ago, Florida senator Marco Rubio was supposed to swoop to second in the Granite State.
He still might get there. He’s currently holding in fifth place, with 12.33% reporting.
The Guardian’s Sabrina Siddiqui finds a “defiant tone” at the Rubio rally:
Supporters at Rubio rally striking defiant tone. Even if Kasich or Jeb outperform in NH, they say, neither will be palatable to base.
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) February 10, 2016
That may be a sound argument. But these Kasich returns could spark envy:
Kasich is outperforming Rubio just about everywhere pic.twitter.com/XrXgXtsbfY
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 10, 2016
Updated
Guardian opinion editor Jonathan Freedland is inside the Trump party, where it’s – a party!
“Trump aide tells me they’re almost as delighted by Kasich’s potential second place as their win: means no single rival is emerging #NH,” Jonathan tweets.
The room filled with cheers when Trump’s victory was announced, after cheering to receive the early returns:
At Trump victory party: big cheer for very early returns showing big numbers for their man #NHPrimary pic.twitter.com/Cl9O9KkuvQ
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) February 10, 2016
At Trump Victory party. When pundit says "This is an angry electorate", the room cheers its approval #NHPrimary
— Jonathan Freedland (@Freedland) February 10, 2016
Exit polls
As the results slowly trickle in, it’s tempting to watch what exit polls are saying. After all, they have nice(ish) clear(ish) charts and they show answers to interesting questions like whether or not the debates affected voter choices.
But exit polls aren’t all that hot. They predicted that John Kerry would win in 2004 (he didn’t) and expected Republican support in Iowa and Mississippi in 2012 would put Rick Santorum in third place (he won in both those states).
There are several reasons why exit polls are so flawed but the most important one (and ultimately, the reason why a lot of polls in this election won’t be accurate) is because they’re not a representative depiction of the population they’re trying to describe.
The CNN exit poll for example was conducted in 44 New Hampshire precincts (the state has 300 precincts) and interviewed 1,257 Republican voters and 1,434 Democratic voters (state officials expected over half a million adults to vote today). Simply put, the voters CNN spoke to are not necessarily a great indication of the mood of the entire New Hampshire electorate.
As Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts notes, Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire so fast, all his supporters didn’t even have time to file into the hall.
Anyway it’s good to be fashionably late to a party:
The Bernie Sanders election party has a DJ. Let's just say he kicked it up a gear when that CNN projection came in. https://t.co/hzOUj9Rmq0
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) February 10, 2016
Meanwhile, at the Ben Carson gathering...
There are 40 people at Ben Carson’s New Hampshire celebration party. That’s including a baby and a very young boy.
The party for the retired neurosurgeon was only scheduled to begin at 7.30pm so maybe it will fill up.
I’m yet to see another journalist but I just had a nice chat with Carson’s New Hampshire state director, David Tillie.
He said over the past two weeks Carson volunteers have knocked on 24,000 doors and made 29,000 phone calls.
Ben Carson New Hampshire celebratory party. Mood: chill pic.twitter.com/STfF3xm3hl
— Adam Gabbatt (@adamgabbatt) February 10, 2016
Still, the campaign is not very optimistic of Carson’s chances. Tillie contrasted Carson with other candidates who “have to win in New Hampshire”. Carson does not have to win, he said.
“He’s a little more focussed on South Carolina.”
There are two bars set up in two corners of the room. Neither is seeing much action. The woman working behind one of is knitting. “It’s just a blanket,” she just told me. It’s green and will go to one of her foster children.
Carson announced earlier today that he would be leaving for South Carolina and not stick around for the New Hampshire result.
Updated
How is it possible it took them so long to come up with these:
A new addition to Trump's party tonight: Foam Trump fingers. pic.twitter.com/1gpUI0PNnf
— Jenna Johnson (@wpjenna) February 10, 2016
They should be foam middle fingers. https://t.co/Fyj7x4MHBW
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) February 10, 2016
Celebrate good times come on. Celebrate good
Lots of action at the bar at the Trump watch party in Manchester. #nhprimary pic.twitter.com/6RtLPkaEOg
— Ali Vitali (@alivitali) February 10, 2016
Huge cheer at Sanders rally as news of win spreads
Guardian Washington bureau chief captures the moment:
Updated
Why was the Associated Press able to call the New Hampshire race so quickly?
Two words: ginormous blowouts.
Both Sanders and Trump are projected to run away with the contests with corpulent margins. The kind one can describe for now as “large” and attach a number to later.
There’s still a tight race to see who will come in second in the Republican race – Kasich, Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Christie – for those who wanted the contest to feel more... contested.
Sanders, Trump projected as winners
The AP projects winners, instantly:
BREAKING: Sanders, Trump win the New Hampshire primaries. @AP race call at 8 p.m. EST. #Election2016 #APracecall.
— The Associated Press (@AP) February 10, 2016
Updated
Final polling stations close...
... except where not. All polls in New Hampshire were to have closed tonight at 8pm ET. In the last hour, however, there have been multiple reports of poling stations held open late due to crowds. Their statuses are unclear.
Crane your neck to the results widget atop the blog there and you’ll notice that a whopping 4% of results are in on the Democratic side and Bernie Sanders holds an authoritative lead. A slightly less whopping 3% of results are in on the Republican and Donald Trump’s red bar is longest.
You can follow results county-by-county in New Hampshire on our map here:
From the comments / grab-bag
Well here’s a nice way to think about it:
If you’re tired of hearing about Donald Trump, too bad! Expect wall to wall Trump for weeks.
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 10, 2016
What’s going on in the comments? What are you talking about?
Hats off to committed New Hampshire voters:
Calling it for Sanders:
I'd be incredibly surprised if Sanders doesn't win this. Easy win.
Questioning Brits who dig US politics: [Why would one focus exclusively on one’s own national politics?]
Do you English follow all US elections this closely? Seems kind of unhealthy. I mean, you're lucky enough to live thousands of miles away...... it's little weird, right?
And a question for the crowd:
Could someone please explain, to someone who gets as confused by USA elections as he does watching American football, just how significant this Sanders victory will be in a wider context? Thanks in advance.
We’d say the crowd did a good job of answering that one – click through and add yours!
Google, which sees you when you’re sleeping, and knows when you’re awake, sees a spike in searches for John Kasich among New Hampshire Internet users toward the end of primary-Palooza here:
Here are some actual results, from the coastal town of Seabrook in southeastern New Hampshire:
Wow… The earliest results show Trump having a monster night
— Taegan Goddard (@politicalwire) February 10, 2016
President Trump. pic.twitter.com/NozhWsE15g
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) February 10, 2016
Seabrook is a classic middle-to-working class, moderate, coastal New England town https://t.co/ZBzfSBhDDq
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 10, 2016
Voted 52% Romney, 20% Paul, 10% Huntsman in 2012. Tonight:
— Brandon (@Brand_Allen) February 10, 2016
Trump: 54%
Bush: 11%
Rubio: 10%
...devastating. https://t.co/bBObp7yazd
Looks like we picked the right after-party:
Ain't no election night watch party like a @BernieSanders election night watch party, thanks to Austin's @DJMel pic.twitter.com/9wk6KXEirJ
— Jason Horowitz (@jasondhorowitz) February 10, 2016
The murmur has turned relatively rocking here in Concord at the scene of a party-in-waiting for John Kasich, the Ohio governor who was all-in on the Granite State and – if early exit polls are any indication, which they’re often not – might have a lot to celebrate.
John Weaver, the chief strategist for Kasich’s campaign, told the Guardian his team was “fantastically happy” with the early indicators.
Kasich has been stumping all over this state in preaching himself as nothing short of the practical contender in a crowded field. If he can surge enough to diminish the pro-establishment, anybody-but-Trump appeal of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio (who had a lonnnnng weekend here), the top tier of Republicans will have been shuffled once again ... and Candidate Chris Christie might be no more.
Here’s how John Sununu, the former New Hampshire senator who is supporting Kasich, put it on the phone with the Guardian just now:
- “If Chris Christie can’t get into double digits, there’s no real rationale for him to continue.”
- Jeb Bush: “If he ends up getting fewer votes than he had at the beginning, then that’s a terrible sign for what’s to come.”
- Marco Rubio: “He had a rough weekend because the debate exposed his core weakness – he’s very rehearsed, his speeches are staged. … That has the potential to continue to dog him, because he’s certainly not going to get a lot more experience from the campaign trail to be the leader of the free world. “
For now, they’re blasting Tom Petty at the scene of New Hampshire’s potential shocker of the night.
Huge crowds delay polling closure
We’re seeing a lot of reports of polling stations being held open due to long lines – in pretty bitter cold, we’d note – still forming outside the stations.
Line of undeclared voters in Bedford looks even longer now. (Wait was an hour earlier). Polls staying open xtra late to accommodate.
— Evan Halper (@evanhalper) February 10, 2016
And here’s another view of that Merrimack traffic jam (it’s much more scenic in the dark, see earlier!):
Merrimack: Those in traffic jam as of 7 p.m. will be able to vote. @MerrimackPD cars marking end of traffic line. pic.twitter.com/hwr7M1Wc9u
— UnionLeader.com (@UnionLeader) February 10, 2016
The exit poll temptation
If you want to read more about what exit polls are claiming to have determined about the makeup and cast of mind of the voters who turned up to cast ballots in New Hampshire today... we will provide for you, caveat emptor, a link to a fairly comprehensive roundup of the “results” over on the web site of ABC News. We’re just going to leave that link... right... here.
CNN’s running a chyron that says “Trump campaign cautiously optimistic.”
“Ha!” a hack in the media center is heard to say. “They’re not cautiously anything!”
Track the results
You’ll notice now our results widget sitting atop the blog there. You also might notice that, despite the striking bar graphs and useful percentage breakdowns of who’s taking what share of the vote – that almost none of the results are in. Specifically, 1% of the results are in. So those bar graphs aren’t yet meaningful.
If you are interested in tracking the New Hampshire result county-by-county, you can visit our interactive maps page.
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First New Hampshire polls close
Here we go – a majority of polling stations in New Hampshire are now closing, although huge turnout across the state may keep some open later than intended.
Exit polling indicates a wariness about non-citizen Muslims entering the United States on the part of two-thirds of Republican voters; a relatively low proportion of Democratic voters who describe themselves as very liberal (26%) and enthusiasm on both sides for wholesale political change.
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and real estate mogul Donald Trump showed every sign of running strong up to the moment of voting – and in on-the-scene polling afterward. Exit polls are not to be trusted – but it’s possible that, unlike in Iowa last week, we could see some very big calls very quickly.
Updated
They were turning people away from the Bernie Sanders results party before polling had even closed, much to the frustration of supporters flocking to the high school venue without tickets.
Inside, senior campaign staff are looking supremely relaxed but refusing to rise to the bait when presented with exit poll rumours by reporters. The mood is a stark contrast to the nail-biting scenes a week ago in Iowa, where the result remained uncertain all evening. Here in Concord, few doubt he will win, the question is by how much.
Lest there be any doubt as to the integrity of reports of large voter turnouts in New Hampshire...
Line of people waiting to vote in #NHPrimary estimated to be 2 miles long in Merrimack https://t.co/3ktMY2ZER2 #WCVB pic.twitter.com/jcHDKgf2ue
— Steven (@StevenWCVB) February 9, 2016
Guardian reporters witnessed big crowds at polling stations across the state today – and we talked with dozens of voters about who they were supporting and why. For a cross-section of New Hampshire voters who turned up at the polls today, give a scroll through our live blog from earlier today – lots of New Hampshire flavor!
Here’s the scene inside Concord High School, which is preparing to host the Bernie Sanders victory party (or stunning non-victory anti-party, as the case may be):
Hello and welcome to our minute-by-minute coverage of the first presidential primary of the 2016 US election. We are here, on the ground, live in Concord, New Hampshire, plus up and down this state for the exciting denouement.
This was a day in which exuberant voter turnout was reported across New Hampshire (check out our day out at the polls here). We’re expecting results to begin flooding in momentarily – and with them, a suddenly sharper picture of the Democratic and Republican races for the White House.
Our main narrative here on this blog comes to you from inside the Concord high school gymnasium, where supporters of Vermont senator and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders are gathering for what they expect will be a big victory celebration.
But we’re not just in Concord – our Guardian politics team is spread out in New Hampshire tonight, with reporters at rallies for mogul Donald Trump, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, Florida senator Marco Rubio, Ohio governor John Kasich, former Florida governor Jeb Bush … and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
Trump appears headed for a big New Hampshire win – but he led in Iowa, too, only to be passed by Texas senator Ted Cruz. (Don’t trust the so-called “exit polls” too much; that’s what Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi is here to make sense of, just for you.) Tonight is Trump’s time to flex his muscles and prove he can convert polling points into actual votes. We all know how much he likes to win.
Sanders seems to hold an equally big lead in New Hampshire over Clinton, the apparent front-runner nationally. How close she manages to stay to him tonight – should he indeed win – will launch a thousand opinions about the purported strength of her once-inevitable candidacy. We’ve got opinionators Megan Carpentier, Jonathan Freedland, Lucia Graves, Jeb Lund and Richard Wolffe along for the ride tonight, too.
Speaking of inevitable – Bush is just one of the Republicans in a fierce fight to prove he still belongs in the race. A bad result here for Bush could slow down the family White House dynasty; a tough night for Chris Christie or Carly Fiorina might mean they’re out of the race.
But Granite State voters are known for upending expectations, and anything might happen. We’ll have it all right here for you the moment it does.
As always, thanks for reading – and pitch in in the comments ... First question: who’s your pick to win?
Updated
New Hampshire voters are teaching voters across America a lesson. The numbers of voters stretched around the buildings and down the streets shows the rest of the country that voting is something to be taken seriously, and that your vote makes a difference.
Big cheer to all the voters of New Hampshire - of both parties and independents.