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Los Angeles Times
Los Angeles Times
Politics
Mark Z. Barabak

New Hampshire primary may help define a murky Democratic race

MANCHESTER, N.H. _ From the notches in the north to the Boston suburbs in the south, New Hampshire voters braved a mix of rain, snow and near-freezing temperatures Tuesday to put their stamp on the tumultuous 2020 Democratic presidential campaign.

The state, celebrating its 100th anniversary as home to the first-in-the-nation primary, has a history of political volatility, with an abundance of late deciders who often confound pollsters and defy predictions.

This contest, with its many candidates and voters obsessed with finding the best candidate to face President Donald Trump, seemed even more uncertain than usual; nearly half those voting Tuesday said they made up their minds in just the past few days, according to exit poll interviews, up from 25% four years ago.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who won an overwhelming victory here four years ago, was a favorite to win again.

Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg was riding a wave of excitement following his virtual tie with Sanders in last week's Iowa caucuses.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar appeared to be surging after a well-received Friday night debate performance. Nearly a third of voters said the debate was an important factor in their decision and nearly 20% called it the most important factor, according to exit polling.

Rounding out the top tier, and struggling to hang on, were former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Sanders hugged and shook hands Tuesday with supporters outside a polling place in Manchester, saying he hoped for a win but wouldn't say by how much. Four years go, facing Hillary Clinton, he coasted to victory in New Hampshire with 60% support.

Sanders said he was proud "that we have spoken to tens of thousands of people in New Hampshire."

Klobuchar, talking to reporters outside a polling place at Manchester's Webster Elementary School, offered her definition of victory by saying she hoped that "we have, based on where we were a week ago, defied expectations."

The candidates' sense of where they stood in the contest could be judged by where they planned to be Tuesday night.

Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar all scheduled appearances before supporters in New Hampshire, as did Warren, whose home is about 50 miles away, in Cambridge, Mass. Biden departed long before nightfall.

One of the many late-deciding voters was Marilyn Swick, 72, who did not make up her mind until the moment she walked into her polling place in a bustling community center in the Boston suburb of Hudson.

"It was between Amy and Pete," said the retiree, a political independent. "She was a woman. I just decided that out of the two, she might be better nationwide."

After Iowa's caucus meltdown, New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary was elevated in import as the presidential race now hurtles into Nevada and South Carolina, followed by a blitz of coast-to-coast balloting on March 3 _ Super Tuesday _ which includes California.

Victory, or least a strong showing, promised to yield a burst of momentum and, more concretely, a lift in polls, an infusion of cash and a first or second look from the many voters just starting to pay close attention to the race.

A disappointing finish threatened to nudge several candidates from the race _ there were 10 on the ballot, though only about half of them were serious contenders.

Looming large as the Democratic campaign leaves the confines of Iowa and New Hampshire is former New York City Michael R. Bloomberg, who has already spent more than $200 million on television advertising.

After more than a year of campaigning, eight rounds of debates and too much punditry and speculation to quantify, the results promised to offer at least some definition to the Democratic contest going forward.

The candidates with arguably the most at stake were Warren and Biden, who finished a disappointing third and fourth, respectively, in Iowa.

The former vice president has largely rested his campaign on the notion he is the candidate best able to beat Trump in November, based on his experience and relative centrism, but the argument was undercut by his weak Iowa showing.

Anticipating a similar setback in New Hampshire, he preemptively declared himself out of the running _ "I'm probably going to take a hit here," he said at Friday's debate _ and didn't bother waiting for results. He flew to South Carolina, a state with a large black population that Biden hopes will resuscitate his campaign with its primary on Feb. 29.

Warren, who had hoped to elbow past Sanders in Iowa and establish herself as the candidate of the party's progressive wing, instead scrambled to avoid an embarrassing setback in her political backyard.

Insisting that she was in the contest for "the long haul," whatever the result, she announced plans to campaign in Virginia, one of the Super Tuesday states.

Sanders was looking ahead as well, with stops planned later this week in the Super Tuesday states of North Carolina and Texas.

Unlike the Iowa caucuses, which are held at a set time, the New Hampshire primary was an all-day affair. Polls opened as early as 6 a.m., depending on location, and close at either 7 or 8 p.m. depending on location. (Keeping alive their tradition, a few remote hamlets stole a march on the rest of the state by voting at midnight.)

Nonpartisan voters, the largest voting bloc in New Hampshire at more than 40% of the electorate, were allowed to take part in the Democratic primary, giving the balloting a more moderate cast than Iowa, which limited participation to the party faithful.

Nearly 4 in 10 voter New Hampshire voters described themselves as moderate, a notable increase from four years ago, and the electorate also had a distinctly pragmatic streak: More than six in 10 said electability _ the perception a candidate could beat Trump _ was more important in deciding their vote than agreeing with a candidate on issues.

Republicans were also voting in their primary Tuesday, with Trump expected to win handily en route to his virtually uncontested nomination for a second term.

Brian Burke, a Republican from Bedford, briefly considered crossing party lines _ which is allowed under same-day registration _ before casting his ballot for Trump.

"I was going to vote for a Democrat because it seems like a more important race at this point," said Burke, 51, who works in finance. "But I am a Republican and I do like everything Donald Trump has actually done for us."

Bloomberg has essentially ignored Iowa, New Hampshire and the other two early voting states, focusing instead on Super Tuesday and the contests beyond. It is a strategy many other presidential contestants have attempted, only to fall well short of the nomination.

None, however, had the financial resources of the media magnate, who has an estimated net worth of more than $60 billion and has shown no hesitation about spending a good deal of it in his pursuit of the White House.

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