Newly released 2019-20 NBA season projections based on ESPN’s real plus-minus (RPM) statistic have the Houston Rockets as the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the best team in the NBA.
The formula’s result mirrors those of Nate Silver‘s FiveThirtyEight, which also lists Houston as the NBA’s best team.
In the RPM-based predictions organized by ESPN staff writer Kevin Pelton, the Rockets are projected to have the most wins in the West at 53.7 (on average) and are given a 99% chance of making the playoffs.
“Despite swapping Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook in a blockbuster deal, the Rockets still have a high degree of carryover from the team that won 53 games last season,” Pelton writes.
“I project more than 80% of their minutes to be played by returning players, the league’s fifth-highest mark. Add in Westbrook’s track record of playing more minutes than Paul, and Houston looks likely to excel again during the regular season.”
The minutes estimates used to create the RPM forecast include a nine-man rotation featuring James Harden, Russell Westbrook, P.J. Tucker, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, Danuel House Jr., Gerald Green, and Tyson Chandler. Pelton also estimates spot minutes for second-year players Gary Clark and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Games played by each player are projected based on their time missed over the prior three NBA seasons, with a subjective guess made by Pelton at each team’s minutes distributions.
The top-ranked team from the Eastern Conference is Milwaukee, with 50.7 wins on average. The Bucks are scheduled to play at Toyota Center in Houston’s 2019-20 season opener on Thursday, Oct. 24.
ESPN defines RPM as each player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM also takes into account teammates, opponents, and additional factors.
“RPM wins” provide an estimate of the number of wins each player contributes to his team’s win total on the season. RPM wins include the player’s Real Plus-Minus and his number of possessions played.
The final projections incorporate the average results from 1,000 season simulations, along with input from Pelton’s SCHOENE projection system and other factors such as typical player aging.
