Some rules in sport baffle me but last week the NFL finally fixed what I believed was the stupidest rule of them all. I am referring to Rule 16, which is better known as “the one possession overtime rule”.
Prior to last week, if a post-season game was tied, it would go to overtime and following a coin toss to determine which team starts with possession of the football, Rule 16 would kick in. The rule was that if the team that possessed the football first scored a touchdown on their opening possession, then they would instantly win the game - without the opposing team ever getting the chance to reply.
Over the past decade, teams that had won the overtime coin toss in the post-season had 10 wins and 2 losses, with seven of those wins coming by scoring a touchdown on the opening possession. The stats backed up just how unfair the rule felt. However, following a 29-3 vote by team owners, the rule has been amended so that post-season games will still feature sudden death scoring, but both teams will get an opportunity to possess the ball.
The change feels like the UEFA’s scrapping of the away goals rule in their European competitions for this season. The away goal rule particularly irked people because it seemed extremely unfair that during extra-time in the knockout stages, visiting teams would benefit from an additional 30 minutes where their goals would effectively count as double.
Unlike in the NFL though, this rule change has made football statistically more unfair. A study by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a Professor at the London School of Economics, and a former director at Athletic Bilbao, looked at data from Champions League and Europa League games over the last 15 seasons; in which 61 knock-out ties went to extra time. During extra time in those games, the home side scored more goals in 20 games, no goals were scored in 21 games and the away side scored more goals in 13 games.
However, in seven of the games a score draw occurred and due to the away goals rule, the away side won the game. Whilst those seven games will have felt horrifically unfair for the losers, the bigger picture showed that having the away goals rule in extra time, led to a perfectly symmetrical 20 home wins, 20 away wins and 21 draws.
This meant the rule was seemingly very successfully in nullifying the numerous benefits that home sides would have from playing the additional 30 minutes in their home stadium in front of their home fans.
Using something called “Poisson distribution” to predict what happens when two equally matched teams meet, the away goals rule in extra time gave just a 1% advantage to the visiting team with a 50.5% to 49.5% split – despite perceptions that is the rule was unfair. However, with the away goal rule now scrapped, home sides now have a whopping 10% advantage over their opponents.
With the UEFA’s knockout matches resuming this week, it will be interesting to see if over time, there will be calls to bring the away goals the rule back.
