Recent polling in the Democratic race in Iowa consistently shows Clinton - Obama - Edwards running in that order. But because the Iowa caucuses aren't a one-person, one-vote election, the polls aren't a solid indication of how the caucuses will turn out.
Clinton campaign chair and former DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe said on Saturday in Des Moines that he doesn't even believe polls showing Clinton is ahead. He said: "The three of us are all jumbled up together."
And Obama's Iowa spokesman Josh Earnest agreed with my theory that night, telling me its not possible to predict from polling how the caucuses will turn out.
If a single candidate were far ahead of the pack, by say 15 or more percentage points, the polls would be a better indication. As it stands now, whoever can best rally supporters in key precincts and secure the second vote of caucus-goers who've backed non-viable candidates stands the best chance.
