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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
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Maanvi Singh in Las Vegas, Nevada (now) and Julia Carrie Wong (earlier)

Bernie Sanders widens primary lead with crucial win in Nevada caucuses – as it happened

Live political reporting continues in Monday’s blog:

Summary

We’re wrapping up the liveblog for today. Here’s where we’re at:

  • Bernie Sanders declared a resounding victory in the “first in the west” primary race.
  • Just over a quarter of precincts have reported results. The Nevada Democrats are still tabulating the final results. Sanders is the projected winner and is by far the frontrunner so far.
  • Joe Biden is currently in second place and Pete Buttigieg is third. Both campaigns have claimed second place.
  • Full results could take a while to tabulate; party officials have to integrate caucus results with early votes. Nearly 75,000 Nevadans voted early, according to the Nevada Democrats.
  • Sanders was boosted up by Latino supporters – who account for 1 in 5 voters in Nevada. The campaign invested big, and early in outreach – and it paid off.
  • Healthcare was a big issue for Nevada voters; exit polls indicated that a majority were in favor of a single-payer system.
  • Read our key takeaways here.

Updated

Now 27% of precincts are reporting, but it hasn’t much affected th percent of county delegates allocated to each candidate:

  • Sanders - 47%
  • Biden – 23%
  • Buttigieg – 14%
  • Warren – 9%
  • Steyer – 4%
  • Klobuchar – 3%

Tom Steyer, speaking to supporters in Las Vegas, remained hopeful about his chances of winning the primaries. In Nevada, with just under a quarter of precincts reporting, he has earned about 4% of county delegates.

Elizabeth Warren is continuing to project confidence in her chances of getting the nomination.

“Understand this: I’m not in this fight to talk about change. I am in this fight to make change,” said the senator who is known for her detailed plans.

Her campaign was re-energized after a strong debate performance this week. But with nearly 75,000 Nevadans voting early, before the debate, it’s unclear whether her post-debate momentum had any impact in Nevada.

In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.

“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”

Updated

Now we have 23% of precincts reporting, but the ranking of candidates hasn’t changed.

  • Sanders – 47%
  • Biden – 23%
  • Buttigieg – 13%
  • Warren – 9%
  • Steyer – 4%
  • Klobuchar – 3%

Updated

Elizabeth Warren’s message to Nevadans: “Thank you for keeping me in the fight.”

Warren, speaking to supporters in Seattle, congratulated Bernie Sanders on his victory in Nevada. “The race has been called. Bernie has won, congratulations Bernie,” she said.

But she added that since Wednesday night – the day of the debate – “our support has been growing everywhere.” As she did on debate night, and in the days after, Warren launched into a takedown of Mike Bloomberg.

“Michael Bloomberg is not the safest candidate, Michael Bloomberg is the riskiest candidate,” she said.

Bloomberg was competing in Nevada, choosing to focus instead on the Super Tuesday states, where Warren will have to claim big gains in order to stay in the race.

Updated

After a long delay, more results are starting to come in. With 11.2% of precincts reporting, Sanders is still on top, but there has been some movement below.

Here’s where we are:

  • Sanders – 47%
  • Biden – 24%
  • Buttigieg – 14%
  • Warren – 9%
  • Steyer – 4%
  • Klobuchar – 3%

Mike Bloomberg’s campaign manager has put out a statement on Bernie Sanders’ victory in Nevada. Bloomberg did not contest Nevada, but is staking his candidacy on Super Tuesday.

The Nevada results reinforce the reality that this fragmented field is putting Bernie Sanders on pace to amass an insurmountable delegate lead. This is a candidate who just declared war on the so-called “Democratic Establishment.” We are going to need Independents AND Republicans to defeat Trump – attacking your own party is no way to get started. As Mike says, if we choose a candidate who appeals to a small base – like Senator Sanders – it will be a fatal error.

Elizabeth Warren’s strong performance in last week’s debate wasn’t enough to vault her into a winning position in the Nevada caucuses.

Her campaign manager, Roger Lau, is arguing on Twitter that her vote share surged between the early voters and those who showed up in person, however.

Bernie Sanders’s strength among Latino voters in Nevada could signal good things for his campaign come Super Tuesday, my colleague Lauren Gambino suggests. The two biggest prizes on 3 March, California and Texas, have significant Latino populations.

Here is more on Bernie Sanders’s victory, from my colleagues Maanvi Singh and Sam Levin, who have been reporting from Nevada this week:

The Nevada caucuses come at a critical moment in the Democratic primary, a week before the South Carolina race and just before Super Tuesday, in March, when 14 states will vote. In a state that is nearly 30% Latino, 10% black and has a rapidly growing Asian American community, the Nevada results were a compelling sign of Sanders’ strength in diverse states that more closely reflect the demographics of the Democratic party.

Warren was pushing for a surge in Nevada after her widely celebrated performance at the debate days earlier in Las Vegas. Warren announced on Saturday she had raised $14m in the last 10 days, double the amount her campaign had set out as a goal ahead of the caucuses.

Nevada’s “first-in-the-west” caucuses were also a major test for the campaign of the former vice-president Biden, who was a frontrunner in polls last year but performed poorly in the first two state contests. Biden gave a triumphant speech in Vegas before the results were finalized, and his campaign manager said he appeared to be in second place. “The press is ready to declare people dead quickly. We’re alive. We’re coming back,” Biden said to cheers.

Sanders’ remarks provide a strong contrast to those of Buttigieg and Biden. With his frontrunner status cemented, Sanders is focusing his remarks on Donald Trump and his core message of economic justice, with nary a reference to his Democratic rivals.

Updated

Bernie Sanders declares victory in Nevada

Bernie Sanders declared victory in the Democratic caucuses in Nevada, while speaking at a rally in San Antonio, Texas on Saturday evening.

“We won the popular vote in Iowa, we won the New Hampshire primary, and according to three networks and the AP, we have now won the Nevada caucus,” Sanders said.

“We’ve put together a multi-generational, multi-racial coalition, which is not only going to win in Nevada, it’s going to sweep this country.”

Early voting in Texas, a Super Tuesday state is already underway.

“We’re going to win the Democratic primary in Texas,” Sanders told his supporters.

How can the networks and AP call the race for Sanders with only 4% of precincts reporting?

Here is how the Associated Press describes its process for calling an election’s results:

The responsibility for calling races rests with experienced staff in each state. They are armed with on-the-ground knowledge that no other national news organization can match. Plus, they have information on demographics, absentee and other voting history and political issues that may affect the outcome of races they must call. On election night, they are assisted by experts in AP’s Washington bureau. A “decision desk” in Washington, headed by the Washington bureau chief, has the final signoff on all top-of-the-ticket calls.

Most of the television networks rely on Edison Research for exit polls and election projections, which uses exit polling to help project results.

Pete Buttigieg is now addressing his supporters, after a disappointing showing in Nevada – the first state with a diverse electorate.

Buttigieg, who is currently in fourth place with 8.82% of the vote and 4% of precincts reporting, is attacking Sanders as supporting “an inflexible, ideological revolution that leaves out most Democrats, not to mention most Americans”.

CNN just cut away from the speech, but according to prepared remarks provided by the campaign, Buttigieg will go on to accuse Sanders’ campaign of having “the tenor of combat, division, and polarization, a vision where whoever wins the day, nothing will change the toxic tone of our politics”.

“That is the choice before us. We can prioritize either ideological purity or inclusive victory. We can either call people names online or we can call them into our movement. We can either tighten a narrow and hardcore base or open the tent to a new, broad, big-hearted American coalition.”

Sanders’ projected win in Nevada means that he has won the popular vote in all three of the first three states.

Updated

The Sanders campaign has declared victory in an email to supporters, writing: “We won the Nevada caucus, and we won BIG!”

Updated

Bernie Sanders projected to win Nevada Caucus: Associated Press

Bernie Sanders is on track to win the Democratic caucuses in Nevada, the Associated Press has projected.

With 3.91% of precincts reporting, Sanders had a lead of 54.14%.

The expected result will cement Sanders’ status as the frontrunner in the Democratic primary. Sanders also won the New Hampshire primary, and received the most popular support in Iowa, though Pete Buttigieg received the most delegates.

Bernie Sanders is scheduled to appear at a rally in San Antonio at the top of the hour. We’ll see if he has anything to say about his strong showing in Nevada so far...

NBC and ABC project Sanders victory in Nevada

Both ABC News and NBC News are projecting that Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic primary in Nevada.

Official results are trickling in very slowly, with anecdotal reports that some precinct leaders struggled to get through to the party’s hotline by phone.

Joe Biden: “I ain’t a socialist, I ain’t a plutocrat, I’m a Democrat.”

Former vice-president Joe Biden is speaking to supporters in Las Vegas. “You all did it for me,” Biden told supporters. “We’re going on to South Carolina.”

In his remarks, Biden is especially focused on giving shoutouts to union members, and suggesting that these results represent a comeback.

“We’re coming back and we’re going to win,” he said. “We’re going to win in South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday.”

Results are still trickling in, but Biden’s campaign manager is projecting a “strong second” place finish.

My colleague at the Guardian Australia, Naaman Zhou, has a great read on Australians who are volunteering in the US Democratic primary.

“Having this accent and being Australian, I thought would be a big barrier, but it’s a really nice conversation starter,” one Aussie told him. “The issue on most people’s minds is healthcare and coming from a country where – it is not perfect – but our healthcare system is just far and away better that what America has, makes it a very good comparison, and easy way into it.”

Donald Trump has weighed in on the Nevada caucuses, using his signature invective to go after both Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg.

Speaking in Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar told supporters her campaign had “exceeded expectations” in Nevada. “We will floor the country,” she said.

With only 3% of precincts reporting, Klobuchar is in a distant sixth place, with just 1.6% of the vote.

A Nevada Democratic Party spokesperson has told a reporter for NPR that results are still expected “by the end of the day”.

NBC News’s Steve Kornacki points out that these early results from the state party are not representative of the state, where the vast majority of caucus-goers are concentrated in Clark County.

The Nevada Democratic party has finally begun releasing official results, and Bernie Sanders has an early lead.

With 28 precincts reporting, Sanders had racked up 22 county delegates. Elizabeth Warren was in second place, with 14, followed by Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg with 13 apiece.

The results of the Nevada caucuses are trickling in.

Some delays to the results were expected, as this was the first year that Nevada allowed early voting, which complicated the calculations that precinct leaders are required to make.

However, there have also been some reports of precinct leaders struggling to report their tallies to the state Democratic party by phone. One precinct leader in Henderson, Nevada got a busy signal for “about an hour” as she attempted to phone in her results, the Washington Post reported.

The state party has yet to release any official results. One source “close to the party” told the Washington Post that the process was “running smoothly overall” and that official results are expected soon.

Sanders leads in early results

With 3% of precincts reporting, Senator Bernie Sanders has an early lead in the Nevada Democratic caucuses, with more than 50% of these first results.

Former vice-president Joe Biden was a distant second, at about 18%, followed by Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer.

Updated

Here is some more detail on how Democratic primary voters and caucus-goers view one of the key issues in the race: Medicare for All, based on NBC News entrance polls.

Updated

Bloomberg’s billions

Meanwhile, Mike Bloomberg – who isn’t on the ballot in Nevada, having entered the race late and opting to skip the early voting states, instead focusing on the more than a dozen states that will vote on Super Tuesday (3 March) – has been taking over Americans’ Facebook feeds.

Mike Bloomberg in Detroit, Michigan.
Mike Bloomberg in Detroit, Michigan. Photograph: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

In the first six weeks of 2020, more than 1.6bn of the 2.4bn presidential campaign ads shown to US Facebook users were from the Bloomberg campaign, a new analysis shows. Since launching his campaign in mid-November, the former New York mayor has spent nearly $45m on Facebook ads – more than all his opponents combined.

Bloomberg’s spending doesn’t just dwarf that of other Democrats; Donald Trump’s giant re-election effort on Facebook looks paltry in comparison. The Bloomberg campaign has run three times as many ads as Trump.

Read more here.

Official results are slowly trickling in. If you want to track every one, head on over to our live tracker.

Trump rallies in Las Vegas

The Democrats weren’t the only ones trying to gather support in Nevada. Donald Trump arrived in Vegas on Thursday and held a rally on Friday afternoon.

Trump has been counter-programming the early contests in the Democratic presidential primary by holding rallies in the same states that are voting. In New Hampshire, he held a rally to rattle Democrats on the eve of the vote, and he unleashed an army of surrogates on Iowa ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The Republican party has voted this year to cancel its Republican caucus, in order to clear the path for Trump’s re-election.

Donald Trump at a campaign rally at the Las Vegas Convention Center.
Donald Trump at a campaign rally at the Las Vegas Convention Center. Photograph: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Caucuses disenfranchise many people, as my colleague Sam Levine reported ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

Here’s another voice against caucuses.

How it went down at one caucus site in Reno ...

There was a fair amount of confusion at the University of Nevada, Reno, about how the precincts incorporate early votes with the in-person ones.

At the precinct I’ve been watching, Sanders got an overwhelming number of votes, and everybody else tried to calculate if there was anything they could do to make their non-Sanders vote count.

“We could all go to Yang!” one of the Buttigieg supporters said, referring to Andrew Yang, who recently suspended his campaign.

Ultimately, the Warren and Buttigieg fans couldn’t find a way to come together and add their votes with the early ones to make anyone else viable.

Sanders received all nine delegates.

Updated

How the results will be counted

The Associated Press has put together some helpful information about how the results will be determined today. Crucially, this is the first time that Nevada has allowed early voting, a factor that will substantially increase participation in the primary, but also make calculating the results more complicated.

In 2016, 84,000 Democrats participated in the caucuses. About 75,000 participated in early voting before today.

Per the AP:

What results will Democrats release out of the caucus?

There will be three sets of results:

    • Tallies of the “first alignment” of caucus-goers;
    • The caucus-goers’ “final alignment”;
    • The total number of delegates to county conventions won by candidates.

The first and final alignment results aren’t new, but this is the first time the party has made them public.

Could Nevada experience the same problems that occurred in Iowa?

In Iowa, the inability of some caucus organizers to download the app on their phones, or to use it successfully, triggered a flood of calls to the party’s hotline and dramatically slowed the process of reporting results. And a coding issue within the mobile app muddied the data that was sent in, creating discrepancies that halted the reporting of initial results for nearly 24 hours.

In Nevada, caucus organizers will not need to download anything, but they will be asked to work on an iPad and navigate a Google form designed to integrate early voters into the in-person caucus process and calculate results. The Google app and iPads are trusted commercial tech tools, but election experts have warned that deploying any technology late in the process, like Nevada did, increases the risk of problems. Paper records of the early vote will be available if needed.

Volunteers say that hands-on training with the iPads and the Google form wasn’t even available until late Tuesday, giving little time for people, particularly those who are not tech-savvy, to practice.

Could results be delayed?

It’s possible. Party officials have said they will be guided by accuracy over speed. Factors that include the integration of early votes into the process and potentially high turnout, could affect the tabulation and timing of results. Early voting is a complicated step that Iowa did not attempt, and there’s been some uncertainty about how early voters would be included in later stages of the caucus process.

If everything goes smoothly with the iPads and the Google forms, this part of the process could go quickly. But if volunteers are left to rely on complex instructions and doing math by hand, it could slow everything down.

The Guardian’s Sam Levin has been attending a caucus at the University of Nevada, Reno, where Bernie Sanders will win every single delegate.

Down the hall, at another University of Nevada, Reno, caucus site, Amy Klobuchar has achieved viability, though she’s still second to Sanders.

Updated

Here’s another interesting data point on the debate over Medicare-for-all, from the Washington Post. A strong majority of caucus-goers are apparently unattached to their current health care plans...

One Culinary union member’s views on Sanders ...

Monica Smith, 54, who works for in-room dining at the Bellagio, was a precinct captain for Bernie Sanders. She’s also a member of the Culinary Union, which didn’t endorse a candidate but has criticized Sanders’ health plan. “They’re standing back, they’re allowing the members to choose,” she said. Regardless, “we’re going Democrats for the White House,” she added.

Smith, who said she’s talked to her friends, family and coworkers about Sanders, said it helps that her candidate has “spent a lot of time here in Nevada.” And his campaign has consistently reached out to the Latino community, she said.

“I believe that he’s with me and with my Latino brothers and sisters.”

In Iowa, ties were decided by flipping a coin. In Nevada, they draw cards.

After the Iowa meltdown, will the Nevada caucuses go smoothly?

My colleague and tech reporter Kari Paul writes …

Democratic party officials in Nevada have been scrambling to avoid the fate of Iowa, where technological and organizational failure left the first caucus in the 2020 presidential race without a clear winner. Nevada Democratic party officials had initially planned to rely on the same app.

Democrats once again changed plans for how votes would be tracked in the caucuses on the day before voters cast their ballots.

After announcing results would be relayed online via Google form last week, Democrats decided instead to instruct precinct leaders to call and text votes in to a dedicated hotline, the New York Times reported on Friday.

The Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus-reporting app.
The Iowa Democratic Party’s caucus-reporting app. Photograph: Charlie Neibergall/AP

The change was announced through a memo sent by Alana Mounce, the state party’s executive director, to the presidential campaigns.

“The hotline report will be the primary source of the precinct caucus results reported on Caucus Day,” Mounce wrote. The email made no mention of the Google document forms initially slated to be used.

Nevada, like Iowa, adopted new rules from the Democratic National Committee this year requiring states to report three sets of numbers from the caucuses: the initial vote number, the number of votes a candidate receives after “realignment” – when voters choose new candidates if their top choice fails to receive enough support – and the number of state delegates ultimately awarded to candidates.

At one caucus site at the University of Nevada, Reno, Bernie Sanders will take every state delegate, my colleague Sam Levin reports.

Updated

The scene from the Bellagio on the Las Vegas Strip

Beneath the chandeliers at the ballroom in the Bellagio hotel on the Las Vegas strip, more than 100 caucus-goers were grouped on either side of the room. Many of them were in uniform; they stepped away from their work cleaners, valets and servers to caucus.

Sanders had the strongest support here; with an enthusiastic group of 76 backing the Vermont senator. Chants of “Bernie, Bernie, Bernie,” broke out once everyone realized Sanders would get the most delegates.

The other big group here is for Biden, who had 45 supporters backing him. Biden will be allocated state 19 delegates, and Sanders 38. Many of the voters here are members of the Culinary Union, which criticized Sanders’ healthcare plan.

Although many of the voters here are members of the Culinary Union, which has criticized Sanders’ healthcare plan, he’s a top choice.

“We’re all in the same corner,” said Laura Gonzales Torres, 46, who works as a guest room attendant. “Even if we support different candidates.”

Almost everyone here is a coworker. She chose for Sanders because “my 16 year old said, ‘Mom make sure you vote for Bernie.’”

Updated

Another data point on Culinary members, from veteran Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston.

The Nevada caucus has placed a huge amount of scrutiny on the Culinary Union, which represents about 60,000 casino workers in the state. One point of interest today will be whether the membership of the union shares the leadership’s concerns about Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-for-all proposal.

At one Culinary-heavy caucus site, the Bellagio casino on the Las Vegas strip, it doesn’t appear that way ...

Of course, this is only one caucus site, but it’s one of the most popular for the press today.

The scene in Sparks and Reno

At Sparks high school outside Reno, a group of Sanders supporters were the first to arrive hours before the caucus, encouraging voters to back the Vermont senator as they lined up.

Essie Richard, a 73-year-old resident, was not swayed.

“I’m Biden all the way. He was vice president for eight years. He has the experience,” said Richard, adding that protecting social security and Medicare was the most important issue to her: “I’m barely surviving.”

Naomi Zamarripa, 18-year-old high school senior, also arrive early and said she was excited to cast her first vote for Sanders: “I love his commitment. He’s been around for so long, he keeps fighting and stays true to his beliefs.”

A few miles away at the University of Nevada, Reno, voters waited in a long line to get inside a lecture hall. Many Sanders and Warren supporters in line carried signs, some engaging in lively debates and trying to convince each other to change their minds at the last minute.

Sam Difulvio, a 19-year-old student, said she was still torn between the two progressive candidates minutes before the process started. “I’m trying to hone in on their character and see who I like as a person. I want to hear what normal people have to say about the candidates.”

Cat Dow, 29, said she was excited that this was an election with two candidates she actually liked — Sanders and Warren. “Elizabeth’s debate really shook me. I love her, she kicked ass, everything she said was so salient and so relevant and she was so tough.” But Dow, who works in computer technology, said she was sticking with Sanders, adding, “I want the national embarrassment out of office more than anything else.”

Updated

As the caucuses get underway, social media streams are starting to fill with “first alignment” results from individual caucus sites. But what about the actual, official results?

Tom Perez, the chair of the Democratic National Committee, told reporters today that results will be released as soon as possible, but that the priority is, “first and foremost, to get it right,” according to the AP.

One delaying factor may be the popularity of early voting. Perez said party officials have been working overtime to process those votes.

Some more tidbits from the NBC entrance poll show Sanders’ extraordinary support among younger voters.

Perhaps surprisingly, however, it also shows that the democratic socialist is leading among self-described moderates or conservatives.

Bernie Sanders has a strong lead among early voters, according to an NBC News “entrance poll”. The poll shows Sanders’ particular strength among Latino voters, where he polled majority support despite the broad field.

Nevada is the most diverse state to participate in the primary process so far. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are particularly representative of the overall electorate, or the Democratic party base.

Nevada caucuses officially begin

The caucuses have begun across Nevada, the third state to participate in the Democratic presidential primary process – and the first in the west.

My colleague Sam Levin is in Reno, where caucus-goers are happy to learn from Iowa’s troubles...

Angelica Romero, 54, is a first-time voter. “I lived for many years without papers,” she said. “And I gained citizenship last year. It’s a privilege that we have and so I feel we must participate.”

Angelica Romero
Angelica Romero, 54, prepares to caucus in Nevada Photograph: Maanvi Singh/The Guardian

Going into her first caucus, “I feel very important,” she said with a chuckle.

Romero is caucusing for Bernie Sanders today. “I am convinced - 100% that we will win,” she said. “The morals of Bernie are the same as those of my family and myself.”

She likes Sanders’ Medicare for All plan and his proposal for free college education. “I have two children in college, so that’s important to me,” she said.

Romero, who works as a guest room attendant on the Las Vegas strip is also a member of the local Culinary Union, which has criticized Sanders’ healthcare plan. “I trust my union a lot and I am very grateful to my union,” she said. “But I must put my hand on my heart and vote.”

Warren reports fundraising win

Elizabeth Warren announced on Saturday morning she had raised more than $14 million in the past ten days, double the goal the campaign had set ahead of the caucuses.

Warren supporters are hoping for a big day in Nevada, after the Massachusetts senator put down her best debate performance of the election cycle on Wednesday evening.

“I’ve watched all the debates,” Consuelo Emerson, 57, told Maanvi Singh at an event in Las Vegas on Thursday morning. Emerson, a painter, showed up to the event with “Warren’s twin” – a life-sized cardboard cutout that the senator signed before posing for a selfie with the duo.

“I feel very confident, and also I know she’s going to be the best president,” he said.

Read more here.

The issues driving Nevada caucus voters

On Thursday, Sam Levin spoke to dozens of Democratic voters about the issues motivating their decisions. Across the state, voters agreed that making Trump a one-term president was a priority – and that the daily struggles of many Nevada residents looked very different from those of voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

From Las Vegas in the south to Reno in the north, voters said that the race felt highly personal and urgent. They mentioned the suffering caused by Trump’s deportation machine, the imminent threats of the climate crisis, the fights for labor protections and better jobs for low-wage workers, the protection of public lands and more.

What to expect today

Good morning and welcome to the Guardian’s liveblog as voters in Nevada cast their vote in America’s “first-in-the-west” and third contest of the 2020 election.

My colleagues Maanvi Singh and Sam Levin are in Las Vegas and Reno speaking with voters as they head to the caucuses.

Here’s what they have to say about the day ahead ...

Saturday’s caucuses could be a make-or-break moment for several Democratic contenders and are the first in a state with a diverse electorate that more closely resembles the demographics of the US and the Democratic party. Nevada is nearly 30% Latino and 10% black and has a rapidly growing Asian American population.

Polls have shown Vermont senator Bernie Sanders with a significant lead after he cemented his frontrunner status in Iowa and New Hampshire. The first two states, which are 90% white, also delivered strong results for former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg, but polling has shown the more moderate candidate struggling with black and Latino voters. The Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, the other midwestern candidate vying for moderates, has also polled poorly with voters of color and has recently faced tough questions about her record as a prosecutor.

An early voting location at the culinary workers union hall in Las Vegas.
An early voting location at the Culinary Workers Union hall in Las Vegas. Photograph: John Locher/AP

The Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren had disappointing results in the first two states, but a standout debate night in Las Vegas this week has re-energized her campaign. Joe Biden’s poll numbers have continued to drop since his weak performance in the previous two contests, and another disappointing finish could jeopardize his bid for the presidency.

The billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, who had an embarrassing first debate performance this week, is not on the ballot in Nevada due to his late entrance into the race.

Unlike private votes in traditional primaries, the caucuses have voters gather in groups based on their top-choice candidates, giving them an opportunity to switch to a second choice if their first pick doesn’t gather enough support to be considered “viable” in that precinct.

It’s also the first time the state has offered early voting opportunities, and nearly 75,000 residents have already cast their decision. A majority were first-time caucus-goers, according to Democratic party officials.

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