Nevada Basketball’s Five Biggest Games in 2019-20
The Five Biggest Games for Nevada Basketball in 2019-20
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& @MWCwire
The Wolf Pack’s schedule is packed with storylines – and chances at quality wins.
Head coach Eric Musselman parlayed his success – 110 wins, three NCAA Tournament bids, three Mountain West regular season titles, and one MWC Tournament title in four seasons in Nevada – into a job at Arkansas. The core of the teams that won those games is also mostly gone. Caleb and Cody Martin are signed on to play for the NBA’s Charlotte Hornets, while Jordan Caroline is now playing for the Lakers alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
But that doesn’t mean the train is doomed to go off the tracks.
Nevada brought in Steve Alford fresh off his firing from UCLA, giving him a second chance to make his mark on this league. Remember that Alford guided to New Mexico to at least 22 wins in each of his six seasons in Albuquerque, while snaring four Mountain West crowns and three NCAA Tournament bids. So basically, from 2007 to 2013, Alford ran a Lobos program that was very similar to Musselman’s Wolf Pack teams from the past four years, in terms of overall success.
With senior Jazz Johnson coming back as the most experienced player on the team, Nevada enters the season as something of a mystery. You can make the argument that their recent run of success grants them some manner of mercy with regard to how much they’ll regress after losing so much talent and veteran leadership. But those losses are quite significant in reality. You could be forgiven if you expect Alford to have a rocky first season in Reno before really getting to put his fingerprint on the program.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the five biggest games on Nevada’s schedule this season. These are listed in chronological order, not in order of importance. Because of the realities facing mid-major conferences and the NCAA Tournament, performing well in league games and getting a good draw in the conference tournament is vital. Therefore, I’ve included just one non-conference game in this Top 5. However, I’ll highlight a few of the other notable out-of-league matchups at the end.
12/21 Saint Mary’s (Al Attles Classic in San Francisco, CA)
The old BracketBusters matchups may be a thing of the past, but this late December tie feels like it would have been a perfect marquee game for the series. This is exactly the type of matchup that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will highlight when they are poring over the résumés of teams like the Wolf Pack and the Gaels. So, while this game isn’t necessarily a must-win, this neutral site matchup should be a Quadrant 1 or 2 game in the NCAA’s NET rankings for Nevada. Snagging a Q2 win before Christmas would be a tremendous feather in the cap come March. It’s also worth considering that beating a team like St. Mary’s would also deal a blow to a (likely) direct competitor in the race for an at-large bid. But with Moraga just a 45-minute drive from San Francisco, expect some full-throated support for the Gaels in this one.
1/11 Utah State (Logan, UT)
Perhaps you’d already forgotten about the fracas following the Aggies’ 81-76 win over the Wolf Pack in Logan last March – though if you’re a fan of either one of these teams, I surely doubt it. These teams certainly haven’t forgotten, either. And while Nevada is certainly a different team from who they were a year ago, you have to believe this game is circled on the calendar. Even without all that added drama, this game also likely represents the best possible win in the Mountain West in 2020, as the Utah State is widely considered the front-runners to win the league. However, one storyline to keep an eye on is the health of Aggies big man Neemias Queta. The Portuguese sophomore suffered a knee injury during FIBA play last month, but avoided any ligament tears. Still, if he has to miss significant time, that could cause a massive power vacuum in the Mountain West. Regardless, a win here could likely be the most important W on the schedule for Nevada. With no return game in Reno this season, this is the only chance to beat Utah State.
1/18 San Diego State (San Diego, CA)
Viejas Arena is one of the toughest places to play in this league, so scoring a victory here is no simple task. But realistically, that’s precisely what Nevada needs to do if they want to finish ahead of the Aztecs in the conference. It’s not out of the question that the series between San Diego State and the Wolf Pack could decide who finishes second – or even first, if Queta’s injury forces Utah State down the ladder. Also, note the emerging pattern that Nevada has some very good chances to score big wins away from home. Nevada only lost five games last year, but two of them were to San Diego State, including one at Viejas. Getting back to the right side of this rivalry would help Alford ingratiate himself with the Wolf Pack’s fan base.
2/19 New Mexico (Albuquerque, NM)
It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from Paul Weir’s team in 2019-20. The Lobos are a bit of a patchwork quilt, but there’s a lot of talent there. And while I did predict that New Mexico would finish third in the league, that’s not the main reason I put this game here. The storylines for this game are among the best on Nevada’s schedule (the burgeoning Utah State rivalry is up there, too). First, as mentioned before, Steve Alford was the architect of a lot of success for New Mexico. This game will be his first in the ABQ since he left for the glitz and glamour of UCLA. He also brought along longtime friend and former New Mexico head coach Craig Neal to be his associate head coach. So obviously, both men are extremely familiar with The Pit. Second, the Wolf Pack were 14-0 and coming off a huge home win over Utah State when they came here to play last season. New Mexico, just 7-6 at the time, landed a haymaker in the form of an 85-58 shellacking. You can be sure that Jazz Johnson and the rest of the Pack will be looking to punch back in what could be yet another possible Q2 game.
2/29 San Diego State (Reno, NV)
The away game against SDSU may be more important for the NCAA Tournament résumé, but the return game in Reno also has the potential to be a huge matchup. The last conference game of the season takes place on Leap Day and could be Nevada’s chance to leapfrog the Aztecs in the standings. This game will help determine what kind of momentum the Wolf Pack bring into the MWC Tournament. They have Fresno State at home and Wyoming on the road – both very winnable games – in the two games prior to this one. If they can string together some victories at the end of February, this team has the potential to make some noise in March.
Honorable Mention
Like I mentioned before, the conference season is going to be really important for Nevada. But they’ve also scheduled a very solid non-conference slate that could also provide a lot of good support for their NCAA Tournament résumé. This continues a trend that Musselman started in Reno:
Nevada’s best possible non-conference matchup would be in the Paradise Jam against Cincinnati. But the Bearcats are on the other side of the bracket, so both teams would need to win two games to get there. I do think that we will get to see this game, though. If so, it would immediately become one of the most important games of the season, to be sure.
Aside from Cincinnati, the Wolf Pack has two guaranteed Pac-12 opponents in Utah and USC. The Utes’ outlook isn’t great, but Power 5 wins never hurt. A win over the Trojans would be the much bigger triumph, as Andy Enfield’s squad will likely be ranked in the 75-100 range this season, while Utah is likely to fall outside of the Top 100. USC has some exciting freshmen on campus and have a good chance to finish in the top half of the Pac-12.
Lastly, Nevada has two away games against mid-major opponents that should make for some must-see television. First, they will travel to North Carolina to take on Davidson. The Wildcats are poised to contend for an at-large bid and perhaps an A-10 crown behind the play of returning vets Kellan Grady and Jon Axel Gudmundsson. Later, the Wolf Pack travel to Provo to face BYU. The Cougars are currently projected as the #67 team in Bart Torvik’s preseason T-Rank ratings and will be tough to beat on the road. Ken Pomeroy rated the Marriott Center’s home court advantage just outside the Top 50 in 2019.
All told, Nevada’s schedule is throwing Steve Alford into the deep end, but that doesn’t mean that he’ll drown. The Wolf Pack will have plenty of chances to score big wins for their NCAA Tournament profile throughout the year. But I think that the three away games against Utah State, San Diego State, and New Mexico are perhaps the most significant – not only for Nevada’s postseason chances, but also for the morale of the team and the fans.
How do you think the Wolf Pack will fare in these games? Reach out on Twitter to @MWCwire and @andrewdieckhoff and make your predictions.
Andrew is a current USBWA member covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.
