Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX), as shares traded relatively flat on Thursday, remains a prime beneficiary—and key driver—of linear TV’s disruption, with globally resonant content fueling a flywheel of subscriber growth, rising revenue, and expanding profit.
Centering this idea, JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth highlights that with more than 300 million subscribers, Netflix is holding a “strong leadership position” as streaming rationalizes and expects further gains from the spread of Internet-connected devices and consumers’ shift to on-demand viewing.
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Anmuth reiterated the Neutral rating on the streaming service giant, with a price forecast $1,300.
The analyst notes that easing tariffs and macroeconomic worries have driven rotation away from Netflix and other defensive names, while flat engagement in the first half of 2025 and rising YouTube competition remain key focus areas for investors.
Anmuth views the risk/reward as more balanced at current levels.
The debate centers on potential industry consolidation and Netflix’s positioning, the Amazon DSP partnership and ad monetization, engagement and share of TV time, and the possible upside to back-half guidance.
The Amazon DSP integration will begin in the fourth quarter across 11 countries, with advertising revenue projected to nearly double by 2025 and ad-tier subscribers expected to reach approximately 60 million by year-end 2025.
He projects double-digit FX-neutral revenue growth through 2026, ongoing margin expansion, a ramp in free cash flow, and larger buybacks—supporting 20%+ GAAP EPS growth at least through 2026.
Anmuth frames industry consolidation as a key swing factor for Netflix. He points to Skydance’s tie-up with Paramount and notes press chatter that Paramount Skydance Corporation (NASDAQ: PSKY) may pursue an essentially cash offer for Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD), spanning its cable channels, streaming operations, and studios.
In recent investor conversations, the analyst notes that a larger combined studio could intensify competition and potentially limit Netflix’s access to licensed third-party shows and films.
To gauge resilience, Anmuth highlights that about 62% of Netflix’s content assets were originals as of the second quarter, and no single title accounts for more than 1% of total viewing—factors that, in his view, would blunt consolidation risks.
He adds that any larger Paramount Skydance deal would likely be led by a management team oriented toward disruption and could come with ample financing capacity.
On the flip side, the analyst contends that Netflix could, in theory, act as a buyer of sizable media assets.
The company holds more than $8 billion in cash and equivalents, carries roughly $14.5 billion in debt, and exceeds a $500 billion market value, with shares trading at robust multiples.
Anmuth projects the firm to report 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $25.54, revenues of $45.1 billion, and free cash flow of $8.5 billion.
NFLX Price Action: Netflix shares are trading higher by 0.29% to $1,207.66 at last check on Thursday.
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