Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition faces significant instability after a key ultra-Orthodox party announced its withdrawal early on Tuesday. The move directly threatens to undermine the Israeli leader's authority at a critical juncture in the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
United Torah Judaism's two factions confirmed their exit from the government, citing deep disagreements over a proposed bill. This legislation aims to enshrine widespread military draft exemptions into law for their constituents, whose members primarily dedicate themselves to religious study rather than military service.
The issue of conscription has long been a contentious point among Jewish Israelis, the majority of whom are subject to mandatory military service. This long-standing division has been exacerbated significantly since the war in Gaza began, as the military's demand for personnel has grown increasingly acute.
The departure of a party that has long served as a kingmaker in Israeli politics doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s rule. But, once it comes into effect within 48 hours, it will leave the Israeli leader with a slim majority in a government that could now more heavily rely on the whims of two far-right parties.
Those parties oppose concessions in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas and have themselves quit or threatened to quit the government over moves to end or even pause the war in Gaza.
The political shake-up comes as Israel and Hamas are discussing the terms of a truce for the 21-month war in Gaza. Despite heavy pressure by the U.S., Israel’s top ally, and mediators Egypt and Qatar, there is no breakthrough yet in the talks. A recurring sticking point has been whether the war ends as part of any truce and Netanyahu's far-right parties oppose ending the war while Hamas remains intact.
United Torah Judaism's departure has a window of 48 hours before becoming official, meaning Netanyahu can still find ways to satisfy the party and bring it back into the coalition. But Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, said the gaps between the draft law currently on the table and the demands of the party are still wide, making a compromise unlikely during that time.
Friedman said the party's departure doesn't immediately put Netanyahu's rule at risk. A vote to dissolve parliament, that would bring down the government and trigger new elections, can’t be brought by the opposition until the end of the year because of procedural reasons. And a summer recess for Parliament, beginning later this month and stretching until October, gives Netanyahu another attempt to bridge the gaps and bring the party back into the coalition.
Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, from Netanyahu's Likud party, said he was hopeful the party could be coaxed back to the coalition. “God willing, everything will be fine,” he said.
A Likud spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
