Net migration to the UK could halve again to 200,000 in the next year due to the weakening jobs market, according to the government’s independent advisor.
Last month, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the largest fall in net migration on record. Around 431,000 more people arrived in the UK than left over the 12 months to December 2024, compared to 860,000 a year earlier.
The fall was driven by a decline in non-EU workers and students coming to the UK, and Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), said on Tuesday that he expected this drop to continue.
He said that he expected net migration to drop to 200,000 “in the next year or so”, and then settle back around 300,000 in the following years.
Professor Bell continued: “Work visas have fallen very heavily, which is part of the reason why net migration has fallen so much. We won’t see a big bounce back in visas for work. Most forecasts don’t predict strong growth in the labour market for the next year or two”.
Data from the ONS released on Tuesday showed the number of available jobs fell by 63,000 between March and May this year, while the unemployment rate ticked higher.
Unemployment in the UK rose in April to the highest level in almost four years. Liz McKeown, the ONS director of economic statistics, said that “our vacancies survey suggests some firms may be holding back from recruiting new workers or replacing people when they move on”.
Recent changes in Labour’s immigration white paper will also make it harder for foreign workers to come to the UK. The skills threshold for work visas will be returned to degree level, reducing the number of lower-skilled visas issued.
Professor Bell warned that the hospitality and retail sectors would be worst hit by the changes.
The number of people coming to the UK on health and care worker visas has also been plummeting, sparking fears that care homes, which rely on overseas workers, could be forced to close.
The fall in social care visas was sparked after former Home Secretary James Cleverly introduced a ban on care workers bringing family members to the UK last year.
Despite concerns over a shortage of workers in key sectors because of the change, Labour is continuing to face pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform party to bring down net migration figures even further.
Sir Keir Starmer last month said the UK risks becoming an “island of strangers” without controls on immigration as he unveiled plans to tighten English language requirements, deport more foreign criminals, tell employers they must train UK staff and require skilled workers entering Britain to have a degree.
Under Reform’s plans, work visas for areas with skill shortages would be capped.
