A fresh drop in the level of UK net migration is likely to be revealed when new figures are published on Thursday.
Net migration – the difference between the number of people moving long-term to the country and the number of people leaving – has been falling for much of the past three years.
The total peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has dropped steeply since then, reaching 204,000 in the year to June 2025.
New estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday will cover the 12 months to December 2025 and are expected to show an even lower number.
The fall in net migration is being driven by two trends: a steady decline in people from outside the EU coming to the UK to work, study or join other family members; and a rise in the number of people leaving the UK for other countries, primarily non-EU students who have completed their education.
The drop in people coming to study and work is due to policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration.
These changes began in January 2024 when most overseas students were no longer able to bring family members to the UK.
From March 2024, care workers could no longer bring family members with them to the country and from April 2024, the salary threshold was increased for people wishing to come to the UK on a skilled worker visa, along with the income threshold for a family visa.
In July 2025, the Labour Government introduced further changes, including ending overseas recruitment for care workers and raising the salary threshold again for skilled worker visas.
Home Office data shows visa applications have fallen sharply since these changes began and have continued to drop in 2026.
The new ONS estimates are likely to show net migration in the year to December 2025 was under 200,000 – the first time it has been below this level since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when it stood at 132,000 in the 12 months to March 2021.
The figures come as polling suggests 49% of the public think net migration increased in the past year, despite the number dropping rapidly.
The survey by Ipsos and think tank British Future of 3,003 adults in Great Britain found that some 16% of respondents correctly thought migration fell last year, while 51% expected it to rise again next year.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said the polling showed there was a “massive perception gap” that was shaping debate around immigration and British politics more broadly, for which politicians “need to take responsibility”.
He said: “It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down.
“We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.
“The Government could lead this with an annual Immigration Plan against which they’re held to account in Parliament. That kind of accountability could take some of the heat out of our immigration debate – and keep the public better informed.”
Separate figures to be published on Thursday by the Home Office will show the latest number of asylum seekers living in hotel accommodation, along with data on asylum applications and the backlog of cases.
Some 30,657 asylum seekers were housed in UK hotels at the end of December 2025, down 19% year-on-year and the lowest number since the end of June 2024.
Ministers have promised to end the use of hotels by the next election.
