This is the fifth installment in a series that looks into constituencies where candidates are facing close battles.
On the night of Oct. 24, with a week to go before the House of Representatives election, the plaza in front of Hankyu Railway's Takarazuka Station in Takarazuka, Hyogo Prefecture, was unusually crowded. The eyes of the crowd were on a man wearing a parka in yellow-green -- the symbolic color of Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party).
The man was Hirofumi Yoshimura, 46, governor of neighboring Osaka Prefecture and deputy head of the party. He was there to support Ishin's candidate, former Diet member Koichiro Ichimura, 57, who is running for the seat in the Hyogo No. 6 constituency as a comeback attempt.
"Japan needs at least one reform-minded political party. The current Liberal Democratic Party cannot do this," Yoshimura said in his speech, showing rivalry with the LDP by touting Ishin's achievements in "painful reforms" in Osaka Prefecture. In his 26-minute speech, he mentioned the word "reform" 25 times. The crowd cheered, shouts of "Keep fighting!" went up, and the square was filled with excitement.
Ichimura served three terms as a member of the lower house and was a parliamentary vice minister for the Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism Ministry under the administration of the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan. He said he could quickly demonstrate his abilities if he again becomes a Diet member, based on his experience.
Part of the Hyogo No. 6 constituency is adjacent to Osaka Prefecture. Many voters who live in the constituency commute to Osaka. A senior Ishin official said, "The achievements of Ishin's reforms are more tangible for voters in this constituency."
In the previous lower house election, Ishin did not win any single-seat constituencies in Hyogo Prefecture. However, local mayors have become unable to ignore the party's presence. Yasuyuki Fujiwara, 67, the mayor of Itami, which is a part of the Hyogo No. 6 constituency, visited Ichimura's office on Oct. 15 with a hand-written poster bearing the message: "I'm behind you. Let's make Itami exciting."
Fujiwara once had a fierce conflict with Ishin over policies regarding Osaka Airport, which is located partially in Itami. In the upcoming election, however, Ichimura is one of two candidates whom Fujiwara supports in the Hyogo Constituency No. 6 race. The other is Masaki Ogushi, 55, an official candidate of the LDP. "Ishin is now a major political party. We need to work together," Fujiwara said.
Nippon Ishin no Kai was founded in 2012 by then Osaka City Mayor Toru Hashimoto, now 52, and current party leader Ichiro Matsui, now 57, who is now mayor of the city, with local political party Osaka Ishin no Kai as its parent organization.
Since then, it has been the party's long-cherished wish to spread its influence outside Osaka and grow into a political party with significant standing on the national stage.
In November last year, the party suffered a setback over its Osaka metropolis plan to reorganize the local government. Ishin had been the main driving force behind the plan, which was rejected in a referendum.
Following Hashimoto and Matsui, Yoshimura, who is considered "second-generation," is playing more influential role in the party.
In the Takarazuka mayoral election in April, the Ishin candidate lost, but fought well as the margin of victory was only about 1,600 votes.
The LDP's sense of crisis over Ishin was reinforced in the Hyogo gubernatorial election in July. The LDP, the largest faction in the prefectural assembly, initially asked a former vice governor of the prefecture to run in the election, while Ishin sought to field Motohiko Saito, 43, a former official of the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry.
LDP Diet members from Hyogo Prefecture were panicked by Ishin's move to support Saito. They thought if Ishin were to win the election on its own, it would have a negative impact on the LDP in the next lower house election. As a result, the Diet members, with support from some LDP prefectural assembly members, teamed up with Ishin to support Saito. The LDP headquarters also decided to support Saito.
Saito won the election. However, the election left a sour aftertaste in the LDP as many of its prefectural assembly members supported the former vice governor, a Saito's rival candidate.
Since Saito had served under Yoshimura as head of the finance and budget division of the Osaka prefectural government until this spring, the view among LDP members was that local residents had the impression that Saito was Ishin's governor.
The LDP is very sensitive to Ishin. After the gubernatorial election, Ishin, which wanted to show its good relationship with Saito, created a newsletter featuring Saito's photograph for an Ishin candidate in the lower house election. The LDP reacted by demanding that the newsletter not be distributed.
Turning again to Hyogo Constituency No. 6, Ogushi belongs to a group of lower house members who support former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, 72. Ogushi actively worked on Suga's signature policy of reducing cell phone charges, advising Suga many times.
On Oct. 16, Suga made a speech in front of Takarazuka Station, saying: "Ogushi helped me lower cell phone bills. We really need Ogushi." Immediately after that, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, 40, joined in and said: "We are the ruling party. Ogushi will carry out more reforms than Ishin."
As Ishin is an opposition party, the Ogushi camp posted a number of LDP achievements on leaflets distributed at speeches and other venues. As a ruling party, "we will make further efforts," Ogushi said.
Shu Sakurai, 51, an official candidate of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, criticized the economic policies of the current administration of the LDP and its junior coalition partner Komeito. He has also criticized Ishin, saying, "Reform can have negative consequences." He expects to receive votes from independents, as well as supporters of the Japanese Communist Party, which gave up fielding a candidate in the constituency.
Will Ishin succeed in expanding its power outside Osaka? Or, can the LDP or CDPJ candidates prevent Ishin's advancement? The battle in Hyogo Constituency No. 6 is also a touchstone to predict the future of Ishin.
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