The flannel-clad populist from the Plains is back.
In 2024, Dan Osborn, an Omaha mechanic and union leader with no political experience, chased a long-shot dream of winning a Republican-held Senate seat in ruby-red Nebraska.
The race between Osborn, who ran as an independent, and Sen. Deb Fischer drew national attention and prompted big spending from both sides, turning the state into a late-breaking battleground. Osborn wound up losing by 7 points, a margin far closer than most observers had expected.
Now the 50-year-old is navigating a different set of political headwinds as he once again takes on a Republican senator: in this case, Pete Ricketts, a former two-term governor with enormous personal wealth and a powerful reach in Nebraska politics.
Ricketts is “a conservative Republican who reflects the red-state leanings of Nebraska and he was fairly popular as governor,” said Kevin Smith, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.
“Party registration overwhelmingly favors Republicans, and that means that Dan Osborn doesn’t just have to win over a bunch of independents. He’s going to peel off some Republicans, too,” Smith said. “Can he do it? I’m a little skeptical about that, simply because of the size of the mountain that he’s going to have to climb.”
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Solid Republican.
But Osborn is counting on the experience gleaned during his first run, along with the national dynamics shaping the 2026 midterms, to provide him with a boost.
“We’re starting from a very strong place,” Osborn said in an interview. In 2024, “we started with nothing, just an idea. … Now we’ve got name recognition and a large volunteer base.”
Another factor boosting Osborn: Donald Trump won’t be on the ballot to ramp up turnout among the Republican base. (He won Nebraska with nearly 60 percent of the vote last year.)
Moreover, Osborn said voters around the state are increasingly feeling the pinch of Trump’s economic policies, though most tell him that they aren’t ready to abandon the president just yet.
“People are seeing the extremes of this administration, and they’re certainly worried by it,” he said. “A lot of farmers that I talk to still believe [Trump’s] policies are going to, in the end, make us stronger. And man, I hope they’re right. But in the meantime, bean farmers didn’t have anyone to sell their beans to. … Farmers are suffering.”
‘Fake independent’
Senate Republicans are currently favored to hold their majority next year, with Democratic hopes of flipping control of the chamber resting on winning races in a handful of red-leaning states. An upset in Nebraska, even by an independent who says he won’t caucus with either party, would nevertheless mean one less seat for the GOP.
Once again, Republicans are seeking to stoke doubts about Osborn’s politics, asserting that he’s a Democrat cloaked in the trappings of an independent. They note that Osborn has the backing of Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb.
“We are supporting Dan Osborn,” she posted on social media in July, shortly after he announced his bid. “We believe a coalition of Dems, Indys and Republicans can beat Ricketts and break up the one-party rule. We like the odds of a mechanic vs a billionaire.”
GOP operatives also point out that Osborn’s campaign received millions of dollars in 2024 from super PACs tied to Senate Democrats and that he is using ActBlue, an online fundraising platform that powers Democratic candidates.
“Dan Osborn is a fake independent handpicked by Chuck Schumer, funded by Democrats, and backed by radical socialists,” Nick Puglia, a regional press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in an email. “Nebraskans know Osborn is a fraud and they’ll reject him again.”
And they’re already tying him to someone fast emerging as their favorite 2026 bogeyman: newly elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist whose senior adviser, Morris Katz, also worked for Osborn.
“Over the last year, the real Dan Osborn has been revealed: accepting funds from Chuck Schumer, earning an endorsement from the Nebraska Democratic Party, and sharing consultants with Zohran Mamdani,” said Will Coup, a spokesman for Ricketts’ campaign. “Fake Dan Osborn will not be a voice for Nebraskans, but for the far-left donors and consultants who created him.”
Osborn says he’s seeking the backing of the Libertarian Party but doesn’t mind help from Democrats.
“I never tried to make it a secret that a lot of our money does come from people who are registered as Democrats,” he said, adding that he also tried to use the GOP fundraising platform, WinRed, “but they wouldn’t have me because I’m running against a Republican.”
Osborn and his wife are both drawing paychecks from his campaign and affiliated political action committee, a move denounced by Republicans. Osborn said the money is needed to supplement his wages.
“If I’m trying to get rich I’m not doing it right, because I still have to work my 40 hours a week to pay my bills. My wife’s still picking up shifts at a diner so we can make ends meet while we do this,” he said. “Just like any job, you trade your time for compensation.”
Leading the way
Osborn’s rerun lacks the novelty of his initial bid. His political signifiers — a flannel shirt, scruffy beard and working-class sensibilities — have since been adopted by progressive insurgents running in the 2026 midterms who also are aiming to win over blue-collar voters.
“Dan Osborn is not going to surprise anybody this time,” said Smith, the University of Nebraska professor.
But his strategy of running as an independent in a deep-red state has served as a model for other unaffiliated candidates taking on GOP senators, such as Air Force and Navy veteran Brian Bengs, who’s running against Sen. Mike Rounds in South Dakota; former Idaho state Rep. Todd Achilles, who is challenging Sen. Jim Risch; and Army veteran Ty Pinkins, who is taking on Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi. All three have previously run for office as Democrats.
Osborn said he’s spoken with the three fellow independents.
“We’re not linked in any official capacity; it’s just conversation,” he said.
For Ricketts, the oldest son of a billionaire businessman who helped found TD Ameritrade and whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, the 2026 election marks his second electoral test as senator in as many cycles. (He also lost a 2006 Senate challenge to Democrat Ben Nelson.)
After serving two terms as governor, his successor, Gov. Jim Pillen, appointed Ricketts to fill the remainder of Sen. Ben Sasse’s term, after the Republican resigned to become president of the University of Florida.
Ricketts was on the ballot last year, handily beating Democrat Preston Love by 25 points in the special election for the final two years of Sasse’s term.
He’s known as a visible presence across the state, hosting an annual steak fry that draws hundreds of Republicans.
In a statement, Ricketts said he intends to focus on his record, supporting the tax cuts approved by Congress earlier this year and reducing the number of undocumented immigrants crossing into the United States.
“I’ve always worked to earn the support of Nebraskans by traveling our state and sharing my plans for the future,” Ricketts said. “Nebraskans know where I stand, and they can trust me to deliver on my promises.”
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