A significant shift is underway in American politics, with new polling revealing that nearly half of U.S. adults now identify as political independents, rejecting affiliation with either the Democratic or Republican parties.
This marks a substantial increase from two decades ago, when only around a third of Americans held such a stance, according to a recent Gallup survey.
This burgeoning group appears increasingly driven by dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, an analysis suggests. While this dynamic could offer a temporary boost to Democrats in upcoming elections, it signals no lasting loyalty.
Independents have recently gravitated towards the Democrats, yet this shift is primarily attributed to their increasingly negative perceptions of Donald Trump, rather than any growing warmth towards the Democratic Party itself.
Younger generations are at the forefront of this trend, with more than half of Generation Z and Millennials – those born between 1981 and 2007 – now identifying as political independents.
This stands in stark contrast to older demographics, where only about four in ten Gen X individuals and roughly three in ten older adults currently call themselves independents.
This represents a significant departure from historical patterns; for instance, 56% of Gen Z adults identify as independent today, compared to 47% of Millennials in 2012 and 40% of Gen X adults in 1992. This suggests that frequent and dramatic swings in political power may become an increasingly common feature of the American political landscape, unless the established parties can fundamentally alter their appeal to younger voters.
While independents have long constituted the largest political group in the US, their numbers have steadily climbed over the past 15 years. This year, the Democratic Party has gained a partisan edge among these voters, with nearly half (47%) of US adults now identifying as Democrats or leaning towards them, compared to 42% for Republicans or those leaning Republican.
This shift, which may not be fully reflected in voters’ actual registration, reverses a three-year Republican advantage held during President Joe Biden's tenure, reverting to a dynamic last seen during Donald Trump’s first term. However, this is more likely a reflection of independents' profound discontent with Trump, whose approval among them has steadily declined, rather than a sign of enduring goodwill for the Democrats, whose favorability remains historically low.
Further complicating the political terrain, Americans identifying as moderates are increasingly finding themselves unrepresented by either major party. Over the last decade, more independents have described their political views as 'moderate', while Democrats and Republicans have become significantly less likely to do so. Around half of independents now consider themselves moderate, in contrast to roughly three in ten Democrats and only two in ten Republicans.
Concurrently, both major parties have become more ideologically polarised: approximately six in ten Democrats now identify as liberal, marking one of their lowest shares of moderates, while 77% of Republicans consider themselves conservative, also a low point for moderate identity within their ranks.
This growing ideological chasm presents a significant challenge for both parties. Attempts to appeal to the expanding pool of moderate independents risk alienating their increasingly committed and ideologically distinct bases, suggesting a difficult path ahead for traditional party politics in the United States.
