Nearly 6,000 Londoners died due to Covid within weeks of the “deadly delay” in ordering the first lockdown, official figures reveal.
They show how the virus swept through the capital in April 2020, with 5,967 deaths attributed to coronavirus, according to the data from the Office for National Statistics.
As the pandemic struck, London was initially hardest hit, with 642 Covid deaths in the capital in March, out of 1,568 across the whole of England, or 41% of the total.
Boris Johnson was being urged as early as March 14 to lockdown the capital, according to the damning report by the Covid Inquiry which slammed the “chaos” in Government.
It concluded that a delay in ordering lockdown cost 23,000 lives.
The scathing report also criticised the “toxic” culture in No10.
On the morning of Saturday March 14, Mr Johnson met with Health Secretary Matt Hancock, Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove, England’s Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance and other senior Government figures.
Sir Patrick told the meeting that the UK was two weeks, rather than four weeks, behind Italy which had already been hit by Covid, that there was “no time to lose” and that “data pointed to our reasonable worst-case scenario of over 500,000 deaths becoming a reality unless the Government stepped in hard and fast”.
Advice was to be provided by the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) on measures, to be discussed with Mr Johnson the following day, including “how we could implement further social distancing based on the epidemiology, with options ranging up to full lockdown”.
“Notes from the meeting record that the possibility of a London lockdown in the near future was discussed,” the Covid Inquiry’s report states.
“Mr Gove was recorded as saying ’Go now!’
A meeting chaired by Mr Johnson on the morning of 16 March 2020 discussed the need to plan for a lockdown in London, due to a “sharp rise in cases in the city”.
Amid fears that Covid cases could double every five to six days, Sir Patrick told the Covid Inquiry that at this meeting he argued: “[A] lockdown for at least London would be required if the government’s stated policy of protecting the NHS and the vulnerable was to be achieved.”
Restrictions, but not a lockdown, were announced on March 16 to slow the spread of the virus including household quarantine for 14 days for people with Covid symptoms and advice to the public to stop “non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel” as well as working from home where possible and avoiding pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues.
People in London were asked to “pay special attention” to the guidance about social distancing.
On the morning of March 17, Mr Johnson’s No10 chief adviser Dominic Cummings told Mr Johnson that further restrictions might be necessary to avoid the collapse of the NHS in England.
“We may have to close schools and order full curfew in London within days I think or else Italy collapse,” he stressed.
On the morning of March 18, Mr Cummings sent a message to Mr Johnson stating: “All schools nationwide closed from Friday [ie 20 March]. Announced today. Minimum. I think London lockdown from Saturday.”
At a meeting of the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group on March 18 a paper entitled ‘“Lockdown” in London’ was discussed, with the most recent data showing a 30% increase in overnight cases and deaths.
On March 18, Mr Cummings sent Mr Johnson a message at 3.42pm from a meeting of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, emphasising: “Am sitting in SAGE – not only they saying close all schools now but also London lockdown asap with some exceptions – but pubs etc closed by order of gvt by Fri pm … MAY BE ONLY WAY TO STOP LONDON NHS COLLAPSE IN 15 DAYS.”
The Prime Minister met London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan on March 19 and they agreed that they would “jointly announce at 5pm today that we would be saying that entertainment/ hospitality and non-essential retail ‘must’ close from Friday [20 March] for two weeks” in London.
Mr Johnson, then Chancellor Rishi Sunak, Professor Whitty, officials and advisers met that day to discuss further restrictions that had been considered in the morning.
Mr Cummings sent communications chief Lee Cain a WhatsApp message from this meeting stating: “Get in here he’s melting down. Rishi says bond markets may not fund our debt.”
After the discussion, Mr Johnson decided not to proceed with London-specific measures at that time.
On March 20, the Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group considered whether further restrictions should be applied to London only or across the UK.
The PM stressed that a decision had to be made that day “to strengthen advice on social distancing” and on whether: “measures to close pubs, bars and restaurants needed to be applied to the whole of the UK or London only … [and] what premises needed to close, including whether to close other shops”.
Mr Johnson explained his “instinct” during this discussion as being “that it made no sense to impose measures on London alone”.
He added: “The capital is integrally connected with the rest of the South East, and for epidemiological purposes it seemed highly unlikely, to me, that it could be insulated from the rest of the Home Counties.”
On the evening of March 20, Mr Johnson announced the immediate closure of pubs, cafes, restaurants and other places of leisure in England.
At a Covid-19 Strategy Ministerial Group meeting on March 21, Sir Patrick warned that the worst-case scenario was that intensive care capacity in London would be overwhelmed in 9 days’ time, but the projection was that this would happen in 15 days’ time.
By March 23, SAGE estimated that the number of cases was doubling every three to four days and intensive care units in London were on track to reach capacity within ten days.
At 5pm that day, Mr Johnson chaired a meeting of Whitehall’s COBRA emergency committee where a paper was presented to agree to:
• An order telling citizens to stay at home, other than in accordance with a short and restrictive list of permitted activities
• The closure of non-essential retail
• A ban on gatherings of more than two people in public
• A ban on all social events
In a televised address that evening, Mr Johnson announced to the nation the first Covid lockdown.
Mr Cummings accused the inquiry of enabling "a vast rewriting of history", saying the public needed to realise “the 'experts' including the senior scientists were completely wrong" in the early months of 2020.
He added: "I think we do need to view the decisions taken through that lens, but it's important that lessons are learned so that we can be better prepared if there's ever another pandemic."
