What ten NCAA Tournament March Madness games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread? Here you go. Enjoy.
Contact @PeteFiutak
Starting with a few that didn’t quite make the cut, but are still spicy …
– Saint Louis +10.5 over Virginia Tech
– Ohio State +5.5 over Iowa State
– Florida State -9 over Vermont
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. 5 Auburn vs. 12 New Mexico State
LINE: Auburn -6, o/u: 145, ML: Auburn -280, NMSU +240
ATS PICK: New Mexico State
It’s one of those games that should have wild and crazy swings with a whole lot of big scoring runs and scoring, scoring, scoring. This is the best matchup of three-point shooting teams in the tournament, and Auburn is miserable at stopping teams from hitting beyond the arc. It would be really, really nice if the line was closer to the 7.5 it was when it opened, but the Aggies might just win this outright over the SEC champs.
9. 4 Virginia Tech vs. 13 Saint Louis
LINE: Virginia Tech -10.5, o/u: 126
ATS PICK: Saint Louis
The line has gone up. It was hovering around Virginia Tech -9, and now it’s up to 10.5 – and to go Kirk Cousins, you like that. The Billikens have the defense to keep the score low – this should be kept around the 60s – and will dominate the Hokies on the boards. Virginia Tech should be able to pull this off, but it’ll take a battle to get there. 10.5 is way too large a number in a grinding game.
8. 2 Michigan vs. 14 Montana
LINE: Michigan -14.5, o/u: 130.5
ATS PICK: Michigan
Michigan took down Montana by 15 in last year’s tournament – winning 61-47. This year’s Grizzlies team is better, and it’s dangerous, but the Wolverines aren’t going to take this lightly after the way they ended the season. The defense will control this from the start, but the biggest key will be on the glass. Montana will struggle to get enough rebounds, but the scoring drought will be the problem in the second half. You’ll be happy when Montana can’t hit free throws.
– All the CFN March Madness NCAA Tournament Picks
7. 8 Utah State vs. 9 Washington
LINE: Utah State -3, o/u: 135
ATS PICK: Utah State
Grit your teeth through this. Washington won the Pac-12 regular season title, and it has the make-up to be an interesting nine-seed, but it can’t hit the boards at all. Utah State is the real deal, averaging close to nine rebounds per game more than its opponents, while the Huskies are -2.6 in rebounding margin. The Aggies move the ball around too well and don’t make the mistakes UW will need.
6. 4 Kansas State vs. 13 UC Irvine
LINE: Kansas State -4.5, o/u: 119
ATS PICK: Kansas State
Get ready for the Kansas State defense. Yes, it’s a 4-13 matchup with the 13 only going away 4.5, but you’re really, really happy that the line went down from the 5.5. Now you’re getting a better value. The Anteaters are going to be annoying on the boards, but they’ll also give the ball away over and over again. The Wildcat defense will take over in the last five minutes, but they’ll make you sweat out the spread with missed free throws.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. 3 Texas Tech vs. 14 Northern Kentucky
LINE: Texas Tech -14, o/u: 137
ATS PICK: Texas Tech
The Red Raiders haven’t moved much from the two touchdown spread, and there’s a reason – the rested defense might not let the Norse score. Okay, so Northern Kentucky is deep inside and out and move the ball around well, but the Texas Tech defense is stifling and should force takeaway after takeaway.
Lost in the great play by the defensive side is a Red Raider offense that’s able to get into shootouts it needed. It hit the 80 point mark in five of the last seven games, and there’s one key part about this equation – the free throw shooting.
The Norse have foul teams getting off the bus. It might take a while for Texas Tech to pull away, but it’ll live on the line over the final few minutes.
Want the comp? It might have been months ago, but Northern Kentucky dealt with a Cincinnati team that’s great at cranking up the defensive pressure and lost by 13. It also lost to NCAA 8-seed UCF by 13.
Texas Tech will win by more than 14.
NEXT: You don’t out Orange these Orange
4. 8 Syracuse vs. 9 Baylor
LINE: Syracuse -2, o/u: 131.5
ATS PICK: Syracuse
The NCAA Tournament is a new season and everything gets a reboot, but Baylor was awful over the last several weeks. It’s coming into this thing on a four-game losing streak and dropping seven of its las 11 games.
Okay, so Syracuse didn’t exactly burn it up with losses in five of its last seven games seven of its last 11, too, but it dropped games to Duke (twice), North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia – there weren’t any real lightweights.
Both teams are long and athletic, and both teams struggle to score. The difference will be Syracuse’s ability force mistakes, and Baylor makes a ton of them.
They’re similar in a lot of ways, but Syracuse does the Syracuse things a whole lot better.
NEXT: Get ready for a world of ugly …
3. 1 Virginia vs. 16 Gardner-Webb
LINE: Virginia -23.5, o/u: 130.5
ATS PICK: Virginia
Gardner-Webb is a good team on a terrific roll.
It dropped a game in late February against High Point, but it won eight of its last nine games and 11 of its last 13. It’s great from three, the defense forces a ton of mistakes, it hits its free throws, and …
It’s about to get shoved right into the wood chipper.
This isn’t your Virginia team of the last few seasons. It can put up points on runs to go along with its slow-and-low overall style of play, and there’s that defense that’s the most devastating in all of college basketball.
Over the last 12 games – all against the ACC – the Cavaliers have allowed fewer than 60 points eight times. More than that, it was able to beat Georgia Tech by 30, Pitt by 24, Syracuse by 26 and NC State by 20.
And now it’s motivated.
If you don’t think Virginia is going to come out roaring in an attempt to prove to the world that the 1-16 loss to UMBC last year was a fluke ….
And the line went down a half a point. You won’t need it.
NEXT: Nothing to see here …
2. 3 LSU vs. 14 Yale
LINE: LSU -7.5, o/u: 156.5
ATS PICK: LSU
These two athletic departments are going through a whole lot of fun right now for vastly different reasons.
The Will Wade situation at LSU matters to a point, but the team managed to play well enough without him, and now it has had time to adapt and adjust.
Yale can make threes, but it doesn’t shoot them. It has to rely on hitting the boards, putting up points in bunches, and hitting shots from the inside.
Yeah, good luck with that against this LSU team.
The Tigers led the SEC in offensive rebounds and dominate at attacking the ball.
They were able to beat Tennessee, Kentucky, all but ended Alabama’s dream at getting into the NCAA’s, and beat Florida on the road a week before the SEC Tournament.
Yale has been fantastic against Ivy League teams, and it beat Miami, but it also lost to Duke by 33, got dropped by NCAA 13-seed Vermont by nine, and …
LSU will be off to the races after focusing at least 15 turnovers.
NEXT: Don’t think, just throw …
1. 8 Wisconsin vs. 9 Oregon
LINE: Wisconsin -1.5, o/u: 117
ATS PICK: Wisconsin
In 2013, Wisconsin lost to Ole Miss in the first round of the tournament. That was the only time in the ten years from 2008 to 2017 that the program has been knocked out before getting to the second round.
Oregon? It made a brilliant run to the Final Four in 2017, but it got bounced out in the second round in both 2014 and 2015 …
By Wisconsin.
The Badgers have picked the wrong time to fizzle. Yeah, they won six games in seven before getting punched out of the Big Ten Tournament by Michigan State – no real shame there – but they’re not shooting well, and they’re not playing their normal brand of defense.
They can’t shoot free throws, they don’t take the ball away enough, they can’t shoot from three, Oregon just won the Pac-12 Tournament championship to close out an eight-game winning streak, the Duck defense is dominant, and ….
Wisconsin does the whole Wisconsin thing better than Oregon does.
There was a moment when Oregon was a -1 favorite, but it flipped the other way getting closer to the tournament. It’s only a 1.5 point spread, so you’re making a call here in a dangerous 50/50 game, and …
On Wisconsin.
