What ten NCAA Tournament March Madness over/under point totals are the best bets and the best picks? Here you go. Enjoy.
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Starting with a few that didn’t quite make the cut, but are still spicy …
– VCU vs. UCF 126.5 OVER
– Wisconsin vs. Oregon 116.5 OVER
– Iowa State vs. Ohio State 140 UNDER
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
10. 2 Tennessee vs. 15 Colgate
LINE: Tennessee -17.5, o/u: 148
POINT TOTAL PICK: OVER
It’s all on Tennessee. The Vols put up 82 points per game with an aggressive defense, great passing, and the ability to get on the move and overcome any run with a big spurt of its own. As long as it does its part and gets to the mid-80s, Colgate should help the rest. The Raiders aren’t going to put up their normal 76 points per game, but they’ll be good for well over 60. Yeah, that 148 is a relatively big number, but you’ll sweat through it.
9. 4 Florida State vs. 13 Vermont
LINE: Florida State -9, o/u: 133.5
POINT TOTAL PICK:Under
The Florida State defense has to come up large. Vermont can score, but the Seminole defense has a way of keeping games in the 60s with its interior defense. If FSU could hold teams like Virginia Tech and Clemson down, it should be able to ramp up the intensity and bother the Catamounts enough to keep this relatively close late.
You’ll be annoyed when both teams hit their free throws to inch towards the total, but you’re fine – Vermont hasn’t scored 75 or more in eight of its last ten games, and it’ll struggle to get to 60.
8. 7 Cincinnati vs. 10 Iowa
LINE: Cincinnati -3.5, o/u: 137.5
POINT TOTAL PICK:Under
Iowa doesn’t play a whole lot of D, averages 78 points per game, and Cincinnati can explode from time to time. So why the under? The Bearcat defense is going to be an issue for the Hawkeyes.
Iowa has been in a whole lot of shootouts over its ugly 2-6 finishing kick, but the UC D has been great at keeping games down to its pace. It can get on the move from time to time, but it has held 15 of its last 17 opponents to under 70 points.
Going way back to early in the year, Cincinnati-Ohio State got to 120 combined points. UC-Ole Miss? 128. UC-Mississippi State? 129. Against the Power Five programs, it’s slow-and-go, and that’s what this will be, too.
– All the CFN March Madness NCAA Tournament Picks
7. 4 Kansas State vs. 13 UC Irvine
LINE: Kansas State -4.5, o/u: 119
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
The Wildcats will be without Dean Wade and his 13-point average, but they’ll still be able to do just enough to help get past the 119-point mark. They’ll play in the 60s, and that’s all you need. Over the last 18 games, only the games against Iowa State didn’t get to 119.
UC Irvine is going to try to push the pace a little bit. It doesn’t do enough form the outside, but it’s able to hit the boards and get on the move to keep the pressure on. The 52 scored in a win over Eastern Michigan back in December was the only time the Anteaters were under 60.
6. 1 Virginia vs. 16 Gardner-Webb
LINE: Virginia -22.5, o/u: 130.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
There’s a great chance the Virginia defense comes out angry, roaring, and with enough of a purpose to keep Gardner-Webb to under 50 points.
And the Cavaliers will score over 80.
If you’re going with the theory that Virginia is looking to make a big statement after losing in the 1-16 game last year, then you’re all in on a big number from a UVa offense that doesn’t get enough love and respect.
It’s up to the Bulldogs to do something. They can’t get totally wiped out and put up 45 points, and the Cavaliers have the D to make that happen. But GWU will hit its free throws and it’s fantastic at shooting from three. It’ll get to around 55, and Virginia will take care of the rest.
NEXT: The Top Five
5. 2 Kentucky vs. 15 Abilene Christian
LINE: Kentucky -22.5, o/u: 132
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
You’re going to be scared that Abilene Christian has one of the nation’s top scoring defenses – but it also gave up 82 points against Texas Tech, the one strong team it faced.
You’re going to be scared that Kentucky can’t shoot from the outside. It took the fewest threes in the SEC, and ACU doesn’t hit from outside either. Of course, it’s harder to build up point totals with twos instead of threes.
You’re going to be scared that it’ll be a fight to get to 132, but both teams can hit free throws, and both teams can get up and down the court.
Don’t be scared.
Kentucky will do most of the heavy lifting with at least 75 points, and will likely get past 80. Even in the early season blowout wins over lightweights, there weren’t any issues getting past 132 after 71-59 win over SIU.
The other Wildcats will pull their weight in this game that should come closer to 140.
NEXT: The threes need to get going, but …
4. 8 Utah State vs. 9 Washington
LINE: Utah State -3, o/u: 135
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
Utah State had problems when it had to deal with a San Diego State defense that brought things to.a dead stop. Other than that, the team was good for 70 points a game without breathing hard, and usually played up in the 80s.
That includes an 87-82 loss to Arizona State, a, 80-63 win over St. Mary’s, and an 89-65 win over a UC Irvine team that’s in the tournament.
But the Washington defense is a problem. It’s great at taking the ball away, has a strong inside presence, and it finished second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense.
And Utah State can play a little D, too.
However, the Aggies have a hard time guarding the three, and after being held to just 48 points by Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, watch out for UW to crank it up just a bit.
It’ll be a bit of a struggle to get to the 135, but it’ll happen. Get ready for enough threes to put this past the 140 mark.
NEXT: It’s not Hugh Freeze in the Egg Bowl, but …
3. 5 Mississippi State vs. 13 Liberty
LINE: Mississippi State -6.5, o/u: 134
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
Liberty games vs. the SEC tend to put up numbers.
When the Flames played Vanderbilt earlier in the year, the total hit 149. They lost to Alabama 84-75, and late in the year, they’ve been playing games in the 150s.
Mississippi State might be struggling overall coming into the tournament, but playing Tennessee twice along with Auburn in March will do that. Even so, the O is scoring, cranking up 75 points or more in four of the last five games.
The Bulldogs can shoot from three, they take the ball away and get on the move, and the defense is just soft enough to have a few problems with Liberty’s sharpshooters.
Yeah, the Flames might allow just 61 points per game, but they don’t get a whole lot of rebounds and they’re great from the outside. They’ll do their part.
Mississippi State will put up at least 70 in a fun battle that should be a whole lot closer to 150 than 134.
NEXT: Go against what you know and …
2. 3 LSU vs. 14 Yale
LINE: LSU -7.5, o/u: 156.5
POINT TOTAL PICK: Under
This is going to be so hard to do.
How do you go with the under when the two teams each average 81 points per game?
The LSU defense was among the worst in the SEC – allowing 73 points per game – and Yale’s D is a rumor. However, this is where you’re hoping and relying on the SEC talent and rebounding ability taking over the game to keep this from getting out of hand.
Yale only put up 58 points against Duke, scored 76 to beat Cal, and 77 to get by Miami. Rolling up Ivy League teams was fun, but against the Power Five programs, the points weren’t quite where they’ll need to be for this game to get to 157.
The Bulldogs aren’t scoring 80.
For all of LSU’s talent and firepower, it’s more likely to score around 75 in this game than 80 – it’s not going to want to run and gun with Yale. It’ll want to dominate on the glass, assume the Bulldogs can’t and won’t hit a three, and keep the game from going off.
NEXT: You like threes? Here you go.
1. 5 Auburn vs. 12 New Mexico State
LINE: Auburn -5.5, o/u: 146
POINT TOTAL PICK: Over
Three pointers three pointers three pointers three pointers three pointers.
Yes, all you care about is your investment and getting it back dressed up in a bow, but sometimes, you want to have fun with your pick. This is one of those times when it will be worth it just so you can be a part of what this could and should be.
New Mexico State is eighth in the nation at taking threes, and Auburn is third. Auburn averages close to 80 points per game, and New Mexico State averages 78. And best of all, the Tigers are mediocre at guarding the three.
Of course, there’s always the chance that one of the teams goes cold and the threes aren’t dropping, but … Auburn leads the nation in the most three pointers made per game. New Mexico State is 24th.
146 isn’t that bad a number for two high-powered offenses – you need one side to get to 80. The Aggies hit that mark in seven of their last ten games, and got to 75 to 79 three times. Auburn got there in three of its last five games.
Don’t expect any slow and go in this one, and watch it rain.
