Favorite
Kentucky. There’s a temptation here to call the Midwest Regional the “Group Of Death”, but that isn’t quite fair. It’s just a group that happens to include the Team of Death. That would be Kentucky, who are not only the favorites to win the championship, but are in fact seeking perfection.
As you will be reminded a million times from here until their tournament run ends, Kentucky is seeking to become the first Division I basketball team to finish a season undefeated since Bob Knight’s Indiana team pulled it off in 1976. Their win over Arkansas in the SEC tournament on Sunday improved their record to 34-0. That’s six more wins to a national title and the history books.
No less than six Kentucky players are expected to be selected in June’s NBA draft, including frontcourt stalwarts 7ft Willie Cauley-Stein, 6ft11in Karl-Anthony Towns and 7ft Dakari Johnson. But the Wildcats are not invincible. They’ve had a few close calls during the regular season and, as March Madness never fails to remind us, all it takes is one group playing the best basketball of their lives to pull off an unexpected upset. Kentucky can be beaten, but the the teams with the best chances of beating Kentucky – most notably Wisconsin – aren’t in this region.
Dark horse
The field. OK, picking “every non-Kentucky team” here seems like a cowardly cheat and, in all honesty, it very much is. That doesn’t mean it’s not true. Because they have the misfortune of being in the same regional as Kentucky, the 15 other teams in the field should collectively count as the dark horse.
This isn’t a normal year in college basketball. Kentucky’s quest towards perfection has turned this year’s tournament into the Wildcats v the universe. While it’s more likely that a solid program like Maryland or Notre Dame will somehow become the giant-killers than New Mexico State or Northeastern, we’re merely discussing various degrees of improbability.
First-round games to watch
No6 Butler v No11 Texas. The athletic Longhorns, who barely made it into the tournament, face the difficult task of handing Butler its first loss to a lower-seeded team in program history. They’ll have their hands full with the Bulldogs’ top scorer Kellen Dunham.
No7 Wichita State v No10 Indiana. The Hoosiers thought they were on the bubble, but when the final pairings came out they were comfortably in as a No10 seed. They probably got a little unlucky to face Wichita State, who like Texas might be significantly underseeded, but Indiana’s probably just glad to avoid Kentucky.
No1 Kentucky v No16 Manhattan. If you’re less interested in a competitive game and more interested in an absurdity, check to see what happens when the Wildcats face the Jaspers, who should survive their First Four matchup with Hampton.
Blue-plate upset special
No7 Wichita State over No2 Kansas. It’s difficult to see a major upset in the first round, but there’s a very big potential upset should No7 Wichita State and No2 Kansas meet in the round of 32. Of course, if the Shockers do knock off the Jayhawks, it may be less of an upset and more an example of the inexact science of seeding: Kansas’ seed doesn’t account for the fact they might be without Cliff Alexander due to eligibility concerns, nor that Perry Ellis will be attempting to play through a knee injury.
Key figure
41%. The probability of Kentucky of winning the title, per FiveThirtyEight, is greater than the odds of the next four teams combined.
Five best players in regional
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky. It’s possible that the freshman big man could possibly end his college career having not lost a single game and then get chosen first overall in the NBA draft. That’s a decent year.
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky. Here’s the crazy thing about Kentucky: Right now, Towns might not even be the best big man on this Kentucky team. Center Cauley-Stein, the SEC defensive player of the year, is a frightening example of what head coach John Calipari can do with a player who actually stays all the way through to his junior year.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame. Grant finished second to Duke’s Jahlil Green in voting for the ACC player of the year and was the MVP of the ACC tournament. Of all the star players in the Midwest, guard Grant has the most “get on my back and let’s see how far we can go” potential.
Ron Baker, Wichita State. Be prepared to hear Baker’s story, going from a walk-on to a Wooden Award nominee, about a dozen times should the Shockers make it past the first weekend’s worth of games.
Perry Ellis, Kansas. With Cliff Anderson’s status uncertain, Kansas have to hope that knee issues don’t limit Ellis, who was their leading scorer when healthy.
Bold prediction
Kentucky will survive an early scare. It’s really, really difficult to buy the idea that the Wildcats somehow won’t make it to the Final Four, but it isn’t hard to imagine them having to survive at least one close game along the way. After all, the Wildcats dodged a few bullets during the regular season, so It wouldn’t be shocking to see Kentucky needing a key defensive stop or a buzzer-beater to put away by No8 Cincinnati or No9 Purdue in the second round, setting off a thousand “have we overrated Kentucky?” hot takes.
Then of course they will demolish whichever poor team faces them next.
To advance to Sweet 16
Kentucky, Wichita State, Notre Dame, Maryland
To advance to Final Four
Kentucky
