Favorite
Villanova. The Wildcats, winners of 15 straight, are coming off the second Big East tournament championship in program history. Floor general Ryan Arcidiacono and leading scorer Darrun Hilliard helm an efficient, well-balanced offense that sees each of the five starters – and sixth man Josh Hart - averaging no less than 9.2 points per game. Despite a 32-2 record and No4 ranking in the AP poll, the team’s resume isn’t stacked with respect to wins over top-25 teams and it’s legitimate to question whether they have been fully battled tested in conference play. No matter who wins the NC State-LSU matchup, they are sure to be challenged in the round of 32 and will have a tough road if they want to make it out of the region.
Dark horse
Michigan State. Spartans coach Tom Izzo always seems to find a way to make his team relevant in the month of March. Although they have struggled at points in the season, including an embarrassing loss to Texas Southern in December, don’t sleep on Michigan State. They have turned it on recently by beating four straight tournament-bound teams in their conference. If it weren’t for some silly turnovers against Wisconsin late in Sunday’s Big Ten tournament final, they would been seeded even higher. Watch out for the Spartans.
First-round games to watch
No5 Northern Iowa v No12 Wyoming. This could be fun in the unmitigated offensive disaster type of way. Wyoming ranks a whopping 308th in points per game and Northern Iowa ranks 223rd. It could prove to be a low-scoring but taut defensive battle between the Missouri Valley and Mountain West champions.
No8 North Carolina State vs No9 LSU. Both the Tigers and Wolfpack have solid teams and have showed they can keep up with the upper echelon of opposition in their conferences. NC State has a win over Duke and LSU only lost by two points to Kentucky. It could prove to be an intriguing 8-9 matchup with the winner getting a likely shot at Villanova.
No6 Providence v No11 Dayton. Dayton will essentially be playing a home game in the First Four against Boise State. With a number of players from last year’s Elite Eight team back in the fold, the Flyers could give the Friars a spirited run in the round of 64.
Blue-plate upset special
No11 Dayton over No6 Providence. Playing in the First Four may not always be detrimental to a team’s tournament success. In 2014, Tennessee played in the recently added play-in round and was able to advance to the Sweet 16, say nothing of VCU’s famous run from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011. Look for the battle-tested Flyers to spell trouble for Providence.
Key figure
6. The last time Providence was a No6 seed, they reached the Final Four. That 1987 team was coached by present-day Louisville coach Rick Pitino and led on the floor by current Florida coach Billy Donovan.
Five best players in regional
Justin Anderson, Virginia. Anderson has recently had to recover from a broken finger on his shooting hand and an appendectomy. He struggled in the ACC tournament offensively. If the Cavaliers can’t get him going, then Virginia has little chance of making it out of the region.
Daniel Ochefu, Villanova. Ochefu is Villanova’s big man and they need him to be a strong presence in the paint. His standout performance against Providence last week – 15 points, 13 rebounds, five blocks – will be the type of numbers they hope to expect in the tournament.
Travis Trice, Michigan State. The Spartans’ leader in points and assists per game will determine how far they can go in the tournament. The Spartans were ranked fourth in all Division I with over 17 assists per game. If Trice can be the facilitator they need, they can be a very dangerous 7 seed.
Ryan Spangler, Oklahoma. Spangler was close to averaging a double-double numbers for the Sooners this season. Rebounding is always important and especially more so in the NCAA tournament. They will need him to be a presence on the glass to progress.
Seth Tuttle, Northern Iowa. Northern Iowa plays at a highly methodical pace, the slowest of any tournament-bound team besides Virginia according to kenpom.com, and Tuttle is their leading scorer (by far) at nearly 16 points per game. If he doesn’t play well, the wheels might fall off for the Panthers.
Bold prediction
Michigan State knocks off Virginia ... then Villanova. UVA’s offensive struggles have really shown in two of their last three games. Although their defense has been stellar the entire year, their anemic offensive production will be their downfall. Villanova has also been able to take advantage of a weaker Big East conference and has manhandled them all season. It won’t be as easy for them in a stacked region. Michigan State played extremely well in the Big Ten tournament, taking Wisconsin to overtime in the final. Never count out an Izzo-coached team in March.
To advance to Sweet 16
Villanova, Northern Iowa, Michigan State, Oklahoma
To advance to Final Four
Michigan State
