What 5 NCAA Tournament games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into first round on Friday?
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Brackets schmackets. Anyone and everyone can fill one out. I did, and it’s already busted – I’m SO reading that Loyola – Georgia Tech matchup wrong – but the money you invest on these games is forever.
Or for five minutes until you reinvest, but that’s more fun than getting some 12-seed you never heard of right over that 5, right?
Here are five NCAA Tournament first round Friday games that appear to be a wee bit favorable against the spread.
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
5. (5) Tennessee vs (12) Oregon State
LINE: Tennessee -8
ATS PICK: Tennessee
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Never be one of those people who gets weird over a half a point. It all evens out over a lifetime, so if you like a pick, make it, and don’t get into a twist over the line changing …
OH (bleep)ing (bleep) … Tennessee went from 7.5 to 8?
A half a point means a whole lot in basketball – not as much as people like to believe in football – but this whole tournament is just getting started, so I’m not bailing on my core beliefs quite yet.
Speaking of abandoning belief systems, I came into the bracket season determined to pick against the Pac-12 whenever possible, and I think I ended up picking Pac-12 teams whenever possible – except for the conference tournament champion.
Falling for the conference tournament champion that rises up out of the blue is always dicey. The gimmicky tournaments are the last things anyone sees, so the lines are always a wee bit skewed. This one is about right – even with the extra half a point, and it doesn’t matter.
Tennessee might be flaky, but the defense was the best in the SEC in field goal percentage, and Oregon State isn’t exactly automatic from the field. I’m not buying that the Beaver threes that were dropping like the beat around the 23 minute mark of any Carl Cox mix are going to keep going.
Tennessee is too good at slowing teams down on the inside, and it’ll hold up on the outside shooters. Oregon State won’t get the Vol turnovers.
NEXT: Arkansas vs Colgate
4. (3) Arkansas vs (14) Colgate
LINE: Arkansas -8.5
ATS PICK: Arkansas
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
If you’re new to the program, I freely admit to being a Power Five football snob when it comes to picking games. In general, I’ll take the talent, you take the plucky want-to, and I’ll take my chances.
The arrogance isn’t as strong with basketball, but it’s there.
I know, I know, I know, the NCAA Tournament is weird with the upsets, and the magic, and the One Shining Moment crap, but you take the gorgeous upstate New York school with 2,900 students and $75,000 tuition and I’ll take the SEC team that scores faster and better than just about anyone in America.
The Raiders have an absolutely insane No. 8 ranking according to the NCAA NET thing, and that’s because it went 12-1 and ripped through just about everyone.
However – and here’s where the high-brow elitist side kicks in – Colgate played just five teams.
It rolled at will through 5-11 Holy Cross four times. It beat 7-11 Boston University five times. It also beat 6-11 Loyola – the Maryland kind, not the good Chicago version – and hung 105 on 5-7 Bucknell.
Colgate’s best win was against Army, and it went 3-1 in the four games against the Knights.
Arkansas beat Alabama 81-66.
More to the comp, Oral Roberts is one of the nation’s best-scoring, best shooting teams – sort of in the same statistical world as Colgate, only against better competition – and Arkansas beat the Golden Eagles 87-78 back in late December.
In keeping with the boorish theme of taking the elite over the little guy …
NEXT: Villanova vs Winthrop
3. (5) Villanova vs (12) Winthrop
LINE: Villanova -6.5
ATS PICK: Villanova
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
I’m actually sort of surprised that the line has stayed this steady. It opened at Villanova -6 and only budged up a smidge.
Withrop is 25-1, and if the name seems sort of familiar, it’s because the 2007 version whacked Notre Dame by ten in the first round of the tournament, and then – you show me a crazy first round upset and I’ll show you a 75-61 second round loss – lost to Oregon 75-61 in the second round.
It’s a good, aggressive team that’s great on the boards, has just enough scoring punch inside and out to adapt to the game flow, and it’s got four upperclassmen – three seniors – who average over ten points per game.
And its best win was either against Campbell – who lost to NC State by 19 – or to Radford team that lost to Virginia Tech by 15 and suffered the indignity of losing to Vanderbilt.
Winthrop didn’t play any big name programs, and sort of like the Colgate problem of playing just a few teams, there were just 12 teams on the schedule.
The line is low partially because of the Winthrop record, and also because Villanova has hit the skids, losing three of its last four and four of its last seven.
However, under head coach Jay Wright, Villanova has only failed to get out of the first round once in 14 tries, and that was as a 9 seed against Kentucky back in 2006.
This isn’t a national championship-level Wildcat team, but it’s 14-1 this season when making 32% or more of their threes, and the only outlier was an overtime loss to Virginia Tech.
More than that, only two of those 14 wins were by fewer than seven points.
Winthrop has allowed teams to hit 32% or more of their threes 12 times in their 24 games, and none of those teams are Villanova.
NEXT: North Carolina vs Wisconsin
2. (8) North Carolina vs (9) Wisconsin
LINE: North Carolina -1.5
ATS PICK: North Carolina
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Wisconsin is going to get drilled by North Carolina, and if it doesn’t, that’s North Carolina’s fault.
When was the last time Tar Heels lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament? 1999.
The Bill Guthridge-led 3-seed was shocked by Weber State, and before that you have to go all the way back to 1978 for a UNC team that got bounced out right away.
But it’s more than that – it’s about rebounds. Wisconsin doesn’t get them, and North Carolina does.
Wisconsin has a whole lot of Wisconsin-ey stats that make it look like it’s playing well but it’s really, really not. Despite all the experience, all the upperclassmen, and the decent defense, the team just doesn’t rebound.
How many times have the Badgers come up with at least 40 rebounds in a game? Once. They got 45 against Wisconsin-Green Bay.
They got 30 rebounds or more 17 times, and only five of those games were against teams in the tournament – Iowa twice, Maryland, Rutgers, Loyola. The Badgers lost two of those games, were outrebounded in three of them, and only got one more board than the Ramblers.
North Carolina? It came up with over 50 rebounds twice, more than 40 13 times, and more than 30 IN EVERY GAME but a loss to Florida State, and even in that it still won the rebounding margin.
Wisconsin is an okay shooting team, but it’s never going to get second chance points, and North Carolina will.
NEXT: Purdue vs North Texas
1. (4) Purdue vs (13) North Texas
LINE: Purdue -7
ATS PICK: Purdue
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
I’m aware you’re not supposed to make picks based on spite, but this is almost entire based on a hatred for a system. So take everything going forward with a few grains of salt.
Nothing at all against North Texas, but a team that finished tied for fifth in its own mid-major regular season conference standings shouldn’t be in the NCAA Tournament over the regular season champion.
WKU went 20-7 on the year. Louisiana Tech won 21 games, UAB won 22, and throw in Old Dominion, and all of them won 11 Conference USA games. Marshall and North Texas won nine.
The Mean Green got hot for a three-day stretch, and to be fair, beat three of the top regular season teams for the conference tournament title. That matters in the NCAA automatic bid world, but the four months of game before that amount to a fat load of jack squat, and …
Sorry. I’m back now.
Again, give North Texas credit for doing what it had to do to get here. Along the way it played well in a 69-63 loss to Mississippi State back in December, it wasn’t awful in a 14 point loss to Arkansas, and it held up well in a 12 point loss to West Virginia and an 11 point loss to Loyola.
All you’re asking for here is a Purdue win by more than seven.
North Texas shoots incredibly well, It was No. 1 in Conference USA in field goal percentage, going 13-0 when hitting 48% or better from the field. When it didn’t get to 48% it was 4-9 with its three worst shooting days of the season against …
West Virginia, Mississippi State, and Arkansas.
How many teams shot 48% or better against Purdue? Three. Illinois, Rutgers, and Clemson.
Purdue is 18-3 on the season when holding teams to under 45% from the field.
North Texas is going to shoot under 45% from the field.
Go ahead. Give away the seven.
NCAA Tournament Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Every Game Preview & Prediction
– CFN Expert Picks: Every First Round Game
