Favorite
Gonzaga. On paper, No1 Gonzaga should be the clear-cut favorites in the West. The Bulldogs went 32-1 during the regular season, a performance that landed them the top seed in a region that doesn’t seem to offer them much serious competition beyond the 30-4 Arizona Wildcats. Of course, the catch here is that this is Gonzaga. After years of earlier-than-expected tournament exits, their reputation went from “one of the most consistently successful mid-majors in tournament history” to “perennial underachievers who have never made a Final Four”. If the Bulldogs can’t break that trend with their current squad, probably the best collection of talent in school history, it’s fair to wonder if they ever will.
Dark horse
West Virginia. Honestly, it’s difficult to see any team other than Gonzaga or Arizona advance to the Final Four coming out of the west, but March Madness is where the unforeseen becomes commonplace, so there’s always a chance for another team to emerge. No4 West Virginia might be the most balanced team in the region: yhey don’t rely on one or two star players to carry their offense, making them maybe the most “madness”-proof of the potential dark horses in this region.
Three first-round games to watch
No8 Northwestern v No9 Vanderbilt. It’s always exciting when a school makes the tournament for the very first time, and it’s doubly exciting when they actually have a shot at winning their first March Madness game. Northwestern (23-11) has a very real chance at defeating Vanderbilt (19-15) on Thursday in an NCAA tournament debut 78 years in the making, and that alone should make it a must-watch.
No6 Maryland v No11 Xavier. Doesn’t this feel like a match-up we’d normally see in the second or third round? In any case, sometimes we get good games because the schedule-makers mess up. Maryland, who lost six of their last 10 games, is clearly over-seeded here, which is annoying on a fairness standpoint but which also could end up making this the most tightly contested game in the region.
No3 Florida State v No14 Florida Gulf Coast. Hey, remember Dunk City? Welcome to the reboot! OK, so it’s doubtful that FGCU makes the Sweet 16 again, but you have to at least be curious, right? Even without FGCU’s backstory, the stakes are always higher when it’s an intra-state skirmish.
Blue-plate upset special
No12 Princeton over No5 Notre Dame. The 23-16 Tigers have won 19 straight games and have just defeated Yale to win the first ever Ivy League tournament. The 25-9 Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are coming off a loss to Duke in the ACC championship game. On paper, Notre Dame is the stronger team. But if you put any stock in momentum, all of the ingredients of a shocking first-round exit are in place here if Princeton plays at its best. There’s also recent history: the Ivy’s representative has made it out of the first round in three of the last four tournaments.
Key figure
18. That’s the number of consecutive years that Gonzaga has made the NCAA tournament without a single Final Four appearance. They’re looking to avoid extending that streak to 19 this year.
Five best players in regional
Lauri Markkanen, Arizona. A surefire NBA lottery pick, Markkannen is one of those rare seven-footer who’s also a real threat from long distance. This year he’s been shooting 43% from beyond the three-point line.
Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga. Williams-Goss transferred from Washington to becoming the most essential player on a Gonzaga team that only lost one game on the season.
Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame. Don’t look past the junior because he’s only 6ft 5in. Colson leads Notre Dame in scoring (17.5 points per game) and rebounding (10.4).
Melo Trimble, Maryland. Maryland will probably go as far as Trimble, now in his junior year, will take them. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as there’s nobody else in the region more likely to make a dramatic gamer-winner.
Jonathan Isaac, Florida State. So far, Isaac has probably received more attention from diehard supporters of lottery-bound NBA teams than college basketball fans. That could change for the freshman forward with a good showing in his first (and almost certainly last) tournament appearance.
Bold prediction
Gonzaga will make it to the Final Four ... and win a game. Despite their history, it’s probably not really a bold prediction to say that Gonzaga will make their first Final Four this year, as we said in the beginning, everything looks to be working in their favor this year. So let’s get truly bold here: the Bulldogs will not only play a Final Four game, they will win one. Yes, even if it’s against Villanova.
To advance to Sweet 16
Gonzaga. West Virginia. Maryland. Arizona
To advance to Final Four
Gonzaga (finally)
