Signing off
That’s all for now from the Hilton Midtown. Enjoy the Rockets-Warriors game and check back this week for further draft analysis.
With the lottery order determined, who will go No. 1? http://t.co/iSYhRP8kwb pic.twitter.com/0HNjDyJmk6
— NBA TV (@NBATV) May 20, 2015
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Quotables
Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor, on his thoughts of the players at the top of the draft:
Flip [Saunders] has given me a list of about six guys that he wanted me to watch in the tournament and to do that. But I don’t know anything that you guys don’t know. I think what it’s into now is you want to know the heart, and which guy really wants to make the extra special effort to not only be good now but to be better. I’m a big believer that you can sit down and meet people, and find out which one is going to be the leader and which one is going to show the other guys that he’s going to help lead them to a championship.
Lakers coach Byron Scott whether he felt a sense of relief over LA keeping their pick:
That never really crossed my mind. The only thing that kept crossing my mind was No2, No2, because that number was thrown [around] so many times in the past two weeks. Like I was telling all my friends, I wanted No. 1. But I’ll settle for what we have right now.
Sixers center Nerlens Noel on whether Philly was disappointed to land at No3:
No, not at all. We also have our picks next year. So, this year I think the third pick is a definite positive for us, and we’ll try to make it work as best we can.
Knicks general manager Steve Mills on whether New York will pick a player who can make an immediate impact or a long-term project:
I think this pick is complementary to where we’re going, with a guy like Carmelo in place, and what we plan on doing with the $28m we have in cap space. Even if we got the first pick, I think that player would take some time to develop, so our view hasn’t changed.
Magic CEO Alex Martins on reasons for excitement in Orlando:
There’s a lot of reason for excitement with a new leader, the right leader for this young core, adding another critical piece to the foundation, and then what we’re able to accomplish in free agency. Next year is going to be a very exciting year for us, so we have high hopes for our team next season.
Kings exec Vlade Divac on landing the No6 pick:
We feel good. We are happy to stay in the same position. We didn’t move up, but it’s better than moving down.
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Magic speaks
With the #2 pick we can get a great big man, add some good free agents this summer & we will be right back as a contender next season!
— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) May 20, 2015
The winning combination
Minnesota won tonight’s lottery with the number combination 1-3-7-6. Might be worth a play in tomorrow’s lotto, Timberwolves fans.
Early takeaways
Barring a trade, the Timberwolves will have the No1 picks from back-to-back-to-back drafts on next year’s roster. Not a terrible prospect moving forward.
. @MNTimberwolves mood. pic.twitter.com/9uMwfXrc6o
— J.E. Skeets (@jeskeets) May 20, 2015
The Knicks may have taken one on the chin by falling down to No4, but they badly need a point guard and either Emmanuel Mudiay or D’Angelo Russell should be there.
Sixers fans may be disappointed with only getting the No3 pick, but Philadelphia has a surplus of young bigs and Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor almost certain to go No1 and No2. That means they should have their choice of Mudiay or Russell.
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Minnesota on top
“We just want a young man that’s got a great heart and a great mind,” Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor says.
No1: Minnesota Timberwolves
For just the fourth time since the weighted lottery was instituted in 1990, the team with the best odds of winning the lottery has actually won it.
No2: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers will pick at No2!
No3: Philadelphia 76ers
Oh dear. Sorry Philly.
No4: New York Knicks
Huge groans as the hometown Knicks find themselves on the outside of the top three looking in.
No5: Orlando Magic
The Magic at five.
No6: Sacramento Kings
The Kings will pick at six entering their last season in their familiar home.
No7: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets will choose at No7.
No8: Detroit Pistons
Some audible groans for this one but all holding to form.
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No9: Charlotte Hornets
All chalk so far.
No10: Miami Heat
No real shockers yet.
No11: Indiana Pacers
Still chalk.
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No12: Utah Jazz
The Jazz at No12, things holding to form so far.
No13: Phoenix Suns
It’s the Suns at No13.
No14: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder at No14.
The envelopes have been delivered to the stage
Denise Pelli, a partner of the accounting firm Ernst & Young, has delivered the envelopes to the stage. And then ... a commercial break. She’s the only person in the ballroom who knows what’s inside. The other 20 or so people in the room have been sequestered until the reveal is complete.
Not much longer now
Heather Cox doing a series of on-camera interviews: Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns, Duke’s Jahlil Okafor then ‘mystery man’ Emmanuel Mudiay, who played last year with the Guangdong Southern Tigers of the CBA. They all seem quite thrilled about the prospect of getting paid to play basketball for a living.
The telecast has started
ESPN’s Heather Cox is going over the process for tonight’s lottery. But you already knew that. We’re also messing around with Periscope tonight so feel free to watch here and let us know what you think.
Warming up the crowd
ESPN’s Cassidy Hubbarth has taken the stage here and brings out Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein for a brief interview before a nearly full room.
“We had seven of us leave for the draft,” Cauley-Stein says. “That’s what we were practicing against every day. Our record said it all.”
Next comes Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky. When asked to pinpoint his favorite memory over four years at Madison, he’s straight to the point.
“Definitely playing in the national title game,” the Naismith Player of the Year says. “It was an amazing experience and I’m so happy I went through it.”
Frost v Nixon this is not. Telecast set to begin in five minutes or so.
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Philly’s lucky numbers: 1, 6, 11
By now you’re no doubt aware of the Philadelphia 76ers’ unorthodox, asset-based approach to building a winner under general manager Sam Hinkie. But while the Sixers have been accused of tanking in order to obtain the best chance at the No1 pick, they in fact finished ahead of two teams and have only a 15.6% chance at the top choice tonight.
That said, Philly’s best-case scenario is something truly extraordinary due to a pair of trades in play tonight. The Los Angeles Lakers’ pick will be sent to the Sixers if it falls outside the top five. Same for the Miami Heat’s pick if it falls outside the top 10. That means Hinkie’s team could come away with the No1, No6 and No11 picks if everything breaks correctly. (It’s even a hashtag.)
That said, don’t hold your breath: NJ.com’s Eliot Shorr-Parks calculated the chances of that scenario to be 0.28%.
Our view from the gallery
Your faithful narrator has elbowed his way into the gallery overlooking the ballroom where tonight’s reveal will take place. Here’s our view with 20 minutes to go before tonight’s telecast.
A more detailed look at the odds
Here’s a deeper look at the probabilities at play tonight:
One reason for Timberwolves fans to sweat: Only three teams with the worst record – and none since the Orlando Magic in 2004 – won the No1 pick.
And only four teams with the second-worst record won the lottery. (As if Knicks fans needed more reason for hand-wringing.)
The Draft lottery is almost here! We still don't know what this @NYDailyNews cover means: http://t.co/N4GSGq5PcV pic.twitter.com/obHaNbUBmX
— SB Nation (@SBNation) May 19, 2015
The biggest upset happened when the Magic won the 1993 lottery despite a 1.5% chance of winning. (They’d select Chris Webber with the No1 pick but acquire Anfernee Hardaway in a draft-day trade.)
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Preamble
Good evening and welcome to the New York Hilton Midtown for tonight’s NBA draft lottery, where the 14 teams who missed this year’s playoffs will find out their position at the top of this year’s draft.
Here’s a boiled-down version of how tonight’s process operates:
- Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a standard lottery drum.
- Four balls are drawn at random, without regard to their order of selection, to determine the winner of each of the top three picks in the draft. That means 1, 4, 7, 13 is the same as 13, 4, 1, 7.
- Prior to the lottery, each team is assigned a predetermined amount of four-number combinations based on their order of finish during the regular season.
- Since the Minnesota Timberwolves ended the season with the NBA’s worst record, they will get 250 of the 1,001 combinations available – giving them a 25% chance at the No1 overall pick. The team with the best record, the Oklahoma City Thunder, have only five combinations (0.5%).
- Only the top three picks are selected through the lottery. The remaining slots are determined by reverse order of finish. That means the Timberwolves can receive no worse than the No4 pick.
While the results will be nationally televised on ESPN, the lottery itself took place roughly an hour ago in a conference room below the lobby of the Hilton. The New York Times had a well-reported story yesterday about the security measures taken by the NBA to keep the results embargoed.
ESPN’s pre-show starts at 8pm ET with the lottery itself scheduled to begin at 8.30. More to come.
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Odds of landing the No1 pick
Bryan will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s a look at the odds of each team in tonight’s draft lottery to land the No1 overall pick:
- Minnesota Timberwolves (16-66): 25%
- New York Knicks (17-65): 19.9%
- Philadelphia 76ers (18-64): 15.6%
- Los Angeles Lakers* (21-61): 11.9%
- Orlando Magic (25-57): 8.8%
- Sacramento Kings (29-53): 6.3%
- Denver Nuggets (30-52): 4.3%
- Detroit Pistons (32-50): 2.8%
- Charlotte Hornets (33-49): 1.7%
- Miami Heat** (37-45): 1.1%
- Indiana Pacers (38-44): 0.8%
- Utah Jazz (38-44): 0.7%
- Phoenix Suns (39-43): 0.6%
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 0.5%
* The Lakers’ pick will be sent to the 76ers if it falls outside the top five as a condition of an earlier trade.
** The Heat’s pick will be sent to the 76ers if it falls outside the top 10 as a condition of an earlier trade.
