The 2020 NFL Draft is just weeks away, and soon the New Orleans Saints will go on the clock to make their first selection. With the bulk of free agency spending now in the books, we have a better idea of the Saints roster needs that can be addressed by this year’s talented rookie class.
We used the mock draft machine built by the team at The Draft Network to simulate a seven-round mock draft, allowing us to make informed decisions and provide better transparency about the logic of each pick. Here’s what went into the thinking behind every selection we made, as well as a five-man cluster of prospects available whenever the Saints were on the board.
Round 1, Pick 24
Best players available:
- RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
- LB Patrick Queen, LSU
- LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma
- LB Zack Baun, Wisconsin
- DT Neville Gallimore, Oklahoma
- QB Jordan Love, Utah State
As luck would have it, the Saints are on the board with all three of the top linebackers available. A run on wide receivers pushed Queen, Murray, and Baun down a bit, so New Orleans has its pick of the litter to find a starter next to Demario Davis. While they could target another position here, linebacker is their most obvious remaining need (and they reportedly aren’t high on Love, even if the Saints are still doing their homework on him).
So which one do they go with? Queen would be the pick for many fans who share support for the Saints and the LSU Tigers, but his smaller stature (6-foot-0, 229 pounds) may lead to struggles against NFL-quality blockers. He also doesn’t have as strong a body of work as other prospects, with just one year of standout production in college. There’s a lot of projection with him regarding his chances of NFL success.
Let’s consider the other two linebackers. Murray is a better athlete than Queen, having timed the 40 yard dash just 0.02 seconds slower while outweighing him by 12 pounds and performing better in both the vertical and broad jumps. He’s also made more plays for a longer time on a defense that sent far fewer of his teammates into the NFL. However, he has a tendency to overrun plays and make poor decisions when facing multiple gap assignments in run defense. There are low moments on his game tape where he’s slow to process what’s happening in front of him, uncomfortably recalling former first-round draft bust Stephone Anthony.
As for Baun: he’s more of an average athlete for the position than the other two top prospects, and he was also a late bloomer in college who didn’t break out until his senior year. But his scheme-diverse talents mean he can play with just about any defensive front alignment the Saints want to throw out there, even if he isn’t the easy fit at inside linebacker New Orleans might prefer next to Davis. It would take more time to find where he best performs in the Saints defense, so it makes more sense to choose a prospect who can slot in right away with the first pick.
We’ve chosen Murray before in this situation, but we’ll go with Queen in the first mock draft of April. Queen may need more time to develop, but the presence of veterans like Alex Anzalone and Kiko Alonso could give the Saints a buffer to fall back on should he struggle early in the season.
The pick: LB Patrick Queen, LSU
Round 2:
This pick was packaged with a few selections in 2019 that helped the Saints move up in the second round (targeting Erik McCoy) while adding a fourth-rounder (that became C.J. Gardner-Johnson). It shouldn’t shock anyone if either (or both) of those players made the Pro Bowl this year after strong rookie seasons, which is an excellent return on this investment.
Round 3, Pick 88:
Best players available:
- S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne
- OT Ezra Cleveland, Boise State
- WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC
- S Terrell Burgess, Utah
- WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame
It’s interesting to note that several solid linebackers were available here — Willie Gay Jr. (Mississippi State) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian State) could each help the Saints in 2020 and beyond, if not to the same level as higher-rated prospects. But if the Saints can’t get one of the top three options in the first round, it’s good to know that this year’s draft class runs deeper than most.
It would make sense for the Saints to add a wide receiver (should they really count again on Tre’Quan Smith to break out as the third man on the depth chart?) but there are plenty of prospects who could be available in the next round. After adding Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, the Saints may be wiser to plan for the future at another position. They have another big wave of free agents expected to test the market in 2021, so they should continue to prepare for future losses.
That brings us to the clear-cut best player remaining: Dugger, the small-school safety who lit up the combine. While he needs refinement before even considering the jump from Division II to the NFL (with his first-year contributions probably coming on special teams), Dugger’s mobility and explosive athleticism could set him up to replace Marcus Williams in 2021. Williams is entering the final year of his contract and will have grounds to ask for around $14 million per year in free agency. If the Saints aren’t willing to pay that, they need a clearer plan of succession with Gardner-Johnson and Malcolm Jenkins (who turns 33 this year) both better suited at defending underneath than back in deep coverage.
The pick: S Kyle Dugger, Lenoir-Rhyne
Round 4, Pick 130:
Best players available:
- WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State
- TE Thaddeus Moss, LSU
- WR Quartney Davis, Texas A&M
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
- WR Collin Johnson, Texas
We’ve remained patient in letting receiving talent fall until the value matches the selection, and now we’re rewarded with a wealth of options. Pass-catchers available here beyond these five include Lynn Bowden (Kentucky), Gabriel Davis (UCF), and Tyler Johnson (Minnesota).
Moss is a fascinating prospect. He’s a strong inline blocker who could work as Josh Hill’s understudy in 2020, mastering that element of the game before taking on a larger role as a receiving threat once Jared Cook’s contract expires in 2021. However, he sat out athletic testing at this year’s combine after medical exams revealed a broken bone in his foot, so it’s unclear just how high his ceiling may be in that area of the game (he broke out with 47 catches for 570 yards and four touchdown grabs last year at LSU).
This same plan might appeal to the Saints with Okwuegbunam (who also goes by “Chuks,” owing to his middle name of Chukwueneka). But his strengths and weaknesses are a bit inverted. He’s a great scoring target in the red zone with 23 touchdown catches in three years in the SEC, but his route tree is undeveloped and he probably won’t be able to handle as many blocking assignments right away as Moss or other more-physical prospects. Blocking proficiency is going to matter more than usual considering Cook is going to dominate targets to tight ends in 2020. It’s the only way a rookie tight end will get on the field.
So let’s circle back to the receivers. The Saints have waited patiently to add one in this mock draft, but it might be time to make the call before the group gets whittled down even further. Hill is the highest-rated prospect remaining, but it’s unclear where he’ll do the most damage in the NFL. He isn’t the fastest, strongest, or biggest target, and also doesn’t run the crispest routes. While he is Ohio State’s record-holder in career receptions (with 201, breaking David Boston’s mark of 191), he should expect a steep learning curve without a signature X-factor to lean on.
Davis and Johnson aren’t that far behind Hill in the positional rankings, but they couldn’t be more different. Davis is a slot specialist through-and-through, who has a good feel for navigating zone coverage to get open around the first-down marker. Johnson is a size mismatch (towering at 6-foot-6) who moves better than most taller targets, accelerating quickly with short strides. He offers the Saints receiving corps something they haven’t really had since Brandon Coleman retired, meaning he could get on the field more often than other rookies available at this pick. We’ve gone with Hill in the past, and would definitely welcome his addition again, but right now Johnson makes the most sense.
The pick: WR Collin Johnson, Texas
Round 5, Pick 169:
Best players available:
- TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
- QB James Morgan, Florida International
- CB Myles Bryant, Washington
- CB Lamar Jackson, Nebraska
- CB Trajan Bandy, Miami
Well, that’s interesting. Okwuegbunam is still on the board after a round’s worth of selections, which hasn’t happened yet in this mock draft. He’s clearly the best prospect available and would probably be the pick here, but we should give every option a once-over before making the final decision.
Morgan is a small-school quarterback the Saints have taken an interest in during the offseason, and that interest could manifest on the third day of the draft. They have added developmental prospects before — ranging from J.T. Barrett to Ryan Griffin and Garrett Grayson — and could use another one behind Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. A number of teams have been connected with Morgan recently, so this might be the Saints’ only shot at adding him.
We’re also deep into the cornerbacks class, with three legitimate prospects available (and a fourth, Oklahoma State’s A.J. Green, not far behind). There’s another tier of options also on the board to survey in the next round. While the Saints have bolstered the depth chart behind Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins by adding special teamers in Justin Hardee and Deatrick Nichols (and Patrick Robinson figures to compete with safeties Jenkins and Gardner-Johnson in slot coverage duties), they should probably add another corner with boundary experience at some point.
However, we can’t pass on the value offered by Okwuegbunam at this spot. Morgan’s best-case scenario might be backing up Hill for a few years, and he’s not someone who should expect to help out in 2020 in any meaningful way. With so many viable cornerbacks also on the board, we’re comfortable waiting to see who makes it to our next pick.
The pick: TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
Round 6, Pick 203:
Best players available:
- WR Lynn Bowden, Kentucky
- LB Davion Taylor, Colorado
- QB Cole McDonald, Hawaii
- CB John Reid, Penn State
- DT Bravvion Roy, Baylor
So, there was a run on cornerbacks since our last pick. That’s the gamble you take when passing on an opportunity when it’s there to be had. The best corner left is Reid, an undersized slot corner with above-average athleticism. He’s a fun player to watch but the Saints have a surplus of players like him, and there aren’t really any other cornerback prospects with draftable grades still hanging around.
The Saints could consider doubling down at linebacker, which makes sense considering how many of their own are returning from season-ending injuries (Anzalone, Alonso, and rookie backup Kaden Elliss). Taylor is a prospect they’ve shown interest in recently, and he could push someone like Craig Robertson further down the depth chart if everything goes his way.
Bowden is the best pass-catcher on the board, though he has peers like Stephen Guidry (Mississippi State) and Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) just behind him. The Saints have invested a lot in the receiver position already, though, so we’ll wait and see if any of them are available to sign free agent contracts after the draft.
McDonald is a big personality who thrived in a pass-happy offense, but his struggles with throwing on rhythm don’t bode well for the Saints offense. It’s possible the Saints could view him as a consolation prize to missing out on Morgan (who the Jacksonville Jaguars selected immediately after our last pick in this simulation), and they probably won’t find a better prospect this late in the game. We wouldn’t hate the selection.
But what if the Saints threw a curve ball and went with Roy? He was snubbed from this year’s list of combine invitations, and looks like a sneaky-good rookie pickup much like Shy Tuttle and Taylor Stallworth (both undrafted free agents) have been for the Saints in recent years. While he may be initially limited to early-down work as a 337-pounder (playing behind a great nose tackle in Malcom Brown, too) the Saints proved last year they can find room for everyone in their deep defensive line rotation. You could certainly do worse than adding a big man who made 61 total tackles in his senior year (including 13 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks) so late in the draft.
In the end, though, we’re going to take a chance on McDonald. Maybe he’ll be the next Gardner Minshew. None of these prospects would get much playing time in New Orleans, and a fluid Saints quarterback situation means that they shouldn’t overlook anyone.
The Pick: QB Cole McDonald, Hawaii
Round 7:
This pick was traded in the package that acquired Eli Apple, who signed a free agent contract with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason. That sets the Saints up to qualify for a sixth-round compensatory pick in 2021, so maybe it worked out well for everyone.
For the curious: of the players listed in the cloud at our final selection, Bowden, Taylor, and Roy each made it thorugh the seven round without being picked. That means the Saints would hav ethe opportunity to recruit them as undrafted free agents, which is an area they’ve won big with before (just look at Deonte Harris, a rookie first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowler).
There were spots we still wanted to address, and in the reality the Saints will probably make a trade or two up the board to target specific prospects they’re confident will be able to do that. It would have been nice to add a highly-rated cornerback early, as well as greater offensive line depth, but the value was just never there at the right time. The Saints went into this mock draft with one of the NFL’s strongest rosters, and they leave it having addressed several positions of need while laying the groundwork for sustained success in the future.
