Neither Barnaby Joyce nor climate targets are likely to trigger a mass exodus from the Nationals, despite many members sharing their former leader's distaste for reducing carbon emissions to 'net zero' over time.
Even the most ardent critics of the climate plans are unlikely to follow Mr Joyce to the exit, including outspoken Queensland senator Matt Canavan.
"It is Nats or bust for me," he said on Wednesday.
Mr Joyce has decided not to recontest his seat of New England at the next election and has telegraphed a defection from the Nationals, citing a range of grievances including net-zero targets.
The announcement has fuelled speculation Mr Joyce could join Pauline Hanson and become a member of One Nation, and he has not ruled out such a move.
Mr Joyce's departure may have more to do with personal reasons than policy debates, Australian National University postdoctoral research fellow Pandanus Petter suggests.
"He challenged the leadership after the last election and wasn't successful," Dr Petter said.
"The Nationals' internal cohesion will probably be stronger if he's no longer in the party."
Dr Petter suggested one or two Nationals MPs may quit over net zero but he tempered any thoughts of a stampede.
"It can be a lonely place outside of the parties," he said. "There might be a few who leave but I don't think there'll be a mass exodus."
One of those who signalled an intention to quit if the Nationals maintained support for net-zero was Queensland MP Llew O'Brien, who has been unwavering in his support of Mr Joyce and described the targets as a "die in the ditch" issue.
For his part, Nationals leader David Littleproud wants party colleagues to engage in constructive debate on net zero.
"We want to be able not just to be a protest party, we actually have to be a party of government," he said.
