The Liberal party ran as “Nationals-lite” last election and would be “rewarding standover tactics” from its junior Coalition partner if it caves to dropping a net zero emissions commitment, says former party president and MP Jason Falinski, as moderate and conservative forces continue warring over climate policy.
The Liberals are poised to ditch their net zero pledge after conservative powerbrokers urged Sussan Ley to follow the Nationals in dumping the target. With a special meeting to be convened in the coming fortnight to resolve a position, moderate Liberals are fighting privately and publicly to retain a semblance of the policy amid fears abandoning the climate goal would further damage its standing in city seats.
The shadow housing minister, Andrew Bragg, said it was “not leadership” to dump the target. Unsuccessful Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian, narrowly defeated in May, said it was time “to commit to a viable path to net zero”.
Falinski, the NSW Liberal party president between 2023 and 2024, was among several former Liberal MPs concerned about electoral consequences.
“Young Australians would conclude that on one of the most important issues to them, whether the planet will be livable, that we have given up,” Falinski told Guardian Australia.
“That’s not a city or country thing. That’s in every seat.”
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Ley said on Wednesday the Liberal policy would have a priority on affordable energy and “responsibly” reducing emissions, but rejected sticking to net zero “at any cost”. Under pressure from rightwing MPs and with only a handful of colleagues calling to preserve the target, Ley is widely expected to oversee the Liberals dropping or significantly watering down their climate commitment.
“I’m not making any captain’s calls, and the decision will come out of those meetings of our Liberal Party party room. Then I’ll sit down with the Nationals and we’ll work out a Coalition position together,” she told the ABC.
The Liberal meeting will occur before parliament next returns on 24 November, Ley said.
There is significant unease from some Liberal MPs about the pressure the Nationals have exerted in dumping net zero, which some in the Liberal party believe is leading to a perception that the junior Coalition partner is calling the shots. Barnaby Joyce on Tuesday bragged he had “moved the whole agenda to exactly where I want it to be”.
Falinski, who lost his seat of Mackellar to teal MP Sophie Scamps in 2022, said ditching the climate commitment would not reap significant electoral success, but would instead “look like we’re rewarding standover tactics … that ‘if you don’t give it to me, I’ll do negative things in public’.”
“It just encourages more behaviour like that … it doesn’t reward good behaviour, people going away and working through the system, bringing evidence to light, talking about outcomes and coming up with credible arguments to the Australian public,” Falinski said.
“The problem at the election wasn’t that that we ran as Labor-lite, it’s that we ran as Nationals-lite.”
Several other former Liberal moderate MPs voiced similar alarm.
One former MP said ditching net zero would be “toxic” in affluent inner-city seats, and would make winning back even outer suburban seats a harder job. Another former Liberal said they believed the party hasn’t yet hit “rock bottom” in terms of poor opinion polling.
“We are now struggling for survival as a party,” the second former Liberal said.
Kapterian, narrowly defeated by teal Nicolette Boele in Bradfield, said the cost of living and climate change were “above all issues” for her local voters.
“Voters are generally decided on the goal of net zero but they are now demanding a more nuanced conversation about what is achievable and affordable,” she said.
On Sky News, Nationals MP and net zero critic Michael McCormack savaged colleagues providing “anonymous” quotes to the media.
“Backgrounding journalists and calling your parliamentary Coalition colleagues ‘parasites’. I’m sorry, I can’t wear that,” he said.
“Put your name to whatever you’re going to do. Don’t do it in an anonymous way.”
Bragg urged colleagues not to change course.
“Australians want to see a target. They want to see us work toward that target and they don’t want to see us give up,” Bragg said.
“I think it would be a very bad message for Australia to give up on climate action, I don’t think that’s what the community wants. That’s not leadership.”
Fellow Liberal moderate Julian Leeser confirmed his support for net zero emissions on Wednesday. Bragg and fellow senator Dave Sharma are open to watering down the promise to hit the target by 2050 as a compromise to salvage some commitment.
Sharma on Wednesday repeated the option of splitting from the Nationals should be on the table if the two parties couldn’t agree.
“I think if we cannot agree a policy together, if we agree policies separately that are not compatible, then that’s the only alternative,” he told the ABC.
The net zero brawl has turned into a test of Ley’s leadership, with some MPs convinced she has no choice but to ditch the policy to stave off a challenge from Angus Taylor or Andrew Hastie.
Ley insisted her leadership was safe.
“I’m completely confident and I have a smile on my face as I answer this because I know that the media and commentary does get a little bit excited from time to time,” she told ABC radio.
Taylor, speaking to Sky News, downplayed any challenge, saying he supported Ley and that he believed she would “continue on, to get through this issue, and take us to the next election”.
