Energy has become front page news, and the debate about its future has never been so important. Understanding what that future might look like is crucial if we are to meet the long-term challenge of providing safe, reliable and secure energy in a sustainable and affordable way. Of course, we can't be certain how the energy future will evolve. Factors like environmental legislation, energy costs and developments in the economy will all have a major impact on the future energy landscape.
The UK will have a general election in 2015. Which party will be in power? Will it be another coalition? And if so, what course will energy policy take?
This is just the immediate future. Other issues provide plenty of food for thought for the longer term. What choices will consumers make in the years ahead? And how will that be mirrored in the world of technology and the global economy? We simply cannot be sure how each of these factors will play out.
Despite the uncertainty, there is some clarity. The Energy Bill in 2013 was passed with an overwhelming majority – one of the highest seen under the current government.
The ensuing bill implements the main aspects of electricity market reform. It puts in place measures to attract the investment needed to deploy new low carbon generation and to replace current generating capacity. It also aims to maintain energy security and to encourage electricity demand customers to become more active market participants.
So, there's a strong will among our policymakers to secure the future of energy in the UK. Against this backdrop, National Grid has published its 2014 Future Energy Scenarios. These scenarios describe plausible and credible projections for the future of UK energy, out to 2035 and 2050.
Is there value in creating such projections?
Our scenarios present pathways to decarbonisation and we use these as a reference point for a range of modelling activities. These models help us identify strategic gas and electricity network investment requirements for the future. They also provide valuable information for government and the energy industry, helping to inform decisions about the future of energy.
They're not just National Grid's view of the world. The scenarios are a reflection of extensive collaboration and consultation with industry experts. The issues we face affect us all, so we welcome the challenge to our thinking that rigorous debate brings.
Before developing this year's scenarios we talked to more than 180 organisations – the highest level of consultation we've ever carried out for future energy scenarios.
Taking on board views from around the industry, our 2014 scenarios reflect the high level of uncertainty about the future of energy. People also wanted us to produce more scenarios and to see them based on the so-called 'trilemma' of security: supply, affordability and sustainability.
There is a considerable range of potential scenarios, but based on this feedback, we have developed a two-by-two matrix of our four scenarios, all of which explore the variables of affordability and sustainability. We've called them Gone Green, Slow Progression, No Progression and Low Carbon Life.
Under Electricity Market Reform, the Department of Energy and Climate Change has a number of plans that aim to help the UK achieve its 2020 decarbonisation targets. Our Gone Green scenario sets out one possible path in which the targets are achieved. But it's important to have other scenarios that paint a different picture, in which the targets are missed, or are achieved later than planned.
We need alternative scenarios because no matter what we can afford to do as a nation, or however energy policy evolves, we need to make sure we can meet the needs of our customers and society by transporting electricity and gas on our networks safely, efficiently and reliably.
Our future energy scenarios, together with the momentum afforded by electricity market reform, should give us much greater confidence in what the future looks like in the medium to long-term.
As a nation, we will only be able to make the tough decisions that lie ahead if we can do so with confidence. We all need to think more deeply about our attitudes and behaviours towards energy use, and how much we're prepared to change as a society if we are to meet the energy challenge.
The answer lies in open and informed debate between the government, industry and public. With the publication of our 2014 Future Energy Scenarios, the task confronting us is once more brought sharply into focus. It's a reminder that education and collaboration are the best ways to help us make the right decisions in this time of energy uncertainty.
Read our 2014 Future Energy Scenarios
Join the discussion about the 2014 Future Energy Scenarios on LinkedIn and on Twitter: #ukenergy
Content on this page is provided by National Grid, one of the sponsors of the Big Energy Debate.
