August Nymex natural gas (NGQ25) on Tuesday closed lower by -0.041 (-1.19%).
Aug nat-gas prices on Tuesday added to Monday's significant losses and posted a 5-week nearest-futures low. Ramped-up US nat-gas production and forecasts for cooler US temperatures are hammering nat-gas prices. Forecaster Vaisala said Tuesday that forecasts shifted cooler in the middle of the country for July 6-10 and shifted cooler across the southern states for July 11-15. The cooler weather should potentially curb nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power air conditioning and allow US nat-gas inventories to continue rebuilding. As of June 20, EIA nat-gas inventories were +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Tuesday was 106.6 bcf/day (+3.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 76.7 bcf/day (+6.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Tuesday were 15.8 bcf/day (+9.3% w/w), according to BNEF.
A decline in US electricity output is negative for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended June 21 fell -3.1% y/y to 91,334 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 21 rose +2.6% y/y to 4,243,923 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended June 20 rose +96 bcf, above the consensus of +88 bcf and the 5-year average for the week of +79 bcf. As of June 20, nat-gas inventories were down -6.6% y/y, but were +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of June 23, gas storage in Europe was 57% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 66% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending June 27 fell by -2 to 109 rigs, slightly below the 15-month high of 114 rigs from June 6. In the past nine months, gas rigs have risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs posted in September 2024.
