August Nymex natural gas (NGQ25) on Friday closed down -0.023 (-0.69%).
Aug nat-gas prices on Friday gave up early strength and closed lower, remaining near the bottom of the 3-week sell-off. Nat-gas prices closed lower despite forecasts for warmer US weather and Thursday's bullish EIA report.
Atmospheric G2 shifted forecasts warmer for the Midwest and eastern US for July 16-20 but cooler for the West. Looking farther out for July 21-25, forecasts shifted slightly warmer for the eastern US and cooler for the West.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Friday was 106.6 bcf/day (+3.5% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Friday was 76.8 bcf/day (-7.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Friday were 15.8 bcf/day (+5.0% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended July 5 rose +1.0% y/y to 93,747 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending July 5 rose +2.4% y/y to 4,247,938 GWh.
Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended July 4 rose +53 bcf, below the consensus of +61 bcf and right on the 5-year average for the week. As of July 4, nat-gas inventories were down -6.0% y/y, but were +6.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of July 8, gas storage in Europe was 61% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 71% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending July 11 was unchanged at 108 rigs, slightly below the 15-month high of 114 rigs posted on June 6. In the past nine months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
