Which drivers are locks for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, who appears to be in good shape, and who’s on the outside looking in?
These are all questions worth answering at the exact midway point of the regular season.
Before the second half of the regular season commences this weekend at Nashville Superspeedway, let’s take a quick look at where the NASCAR Cup Series playoff contenders stack up.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: The Locks
Eight drivers have secured a berth in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs by virtue of winning at least one points race this season.
Those drivers are William Byron (one win), Kyle Larson (three wins), Christopher Bell (three wins), Denny Hamlin (two wins), Ross Chastain (one win), Joey Logano (one win), Austin Cindric (one win) and Josh Berry (one win).
That means half of the 16-driver playoff field is settled, while the other half is yet to be finalized. That said, several drivers are well-positioned to reach the playoffs despite not yet having been to Victory Lane in 2025.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: The Drivers On The Right Side Of The Cutline
Most seasons, at least two or three drivers make the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on the basis of points at the end of the regular season. These drivers don’t have a win, but they have the most points among the drivers who haven’t found their way to Victory Lane.
Provided that 16 or more different winners don’t win in the regular season, at least one driver will qualify for the playoffs by virtue of points this year. Given that the 2025 season has produced only eight winners to date, eight winless drivers are currently in position to go championship hunting come playoff time.
Based on their ranking in the standings after Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600, these eight drivers are: Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Preece.
Preece, in particular, has a very small margin for error entering the second half of the regular season.
NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs: The Contenders On The Wrong Side Of The Cutline
The first driver on the wrong side of the cutline for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is Chris Buescher, who just moved there on Wednesday thanks to a ruling by the National Motorsports Appeals Panel.
Buescher had been 36 points behind teammate Ryan Preece for the final playoff spot but moved to within six points when the panel cut a recent penalty against his team in half.
Checking in just behind Buescher is AJ Allmendinger, who trails the RFK Racing driver by seven points and is 13 back of Preece.
Three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Busch, meanwhile, sits a single point in arrears of Allmendinger and trails Preece by 14. Busch, who just last week revealed his plans to remain with Richard Childress Racing in 2026, holds a seven-point buffer on Michael McDowell. Next up is John Hunter Nemechek, who sits two points behind McDowell.
Everyone else, though not technically eliminated from the playoffs, is more than 30 points behind bubble man Preece. These drivers, starting with Carson Hocevar, could all make the playoffs with a single win. But they face long odds of getting into the playoffs based on points.
