Today is a public holiday like no other in Malaysia. Despite the punishing hot weather, more than 14 million Malaysians headed to their polling stations across the country to pick their representatives after an intense 11-day campaign period ahead of GE14 – Malaysia's 14th general election.
The Edge newspaper reported that the exodus started on May 8, as highways heading out of the capital Kuala Lumpur became choked with traffic, and airports overflowed as people trying to catch flights to their hometowns mingled with those returning from overseas to cast their ballots in Malaysia.
Many political pundits and popular press have termed GE14 the “mother of all elections” as caretaker prime minister Najib Razak seeks his third mandate.
The opposition coalition has been campaigning to encourage higher voter turnout as it believes it could help clinch a slim win for the first time in Malaysian history.
This drive has given rise to a surge in grassroots initiatives organized via social media to encourage Malaysians to vote, especially given the mid-week polling date.
Many of those working in the country's larger cities are not registered to vote there, and instead must travel to polling stations in semi-rural areas.
As such, the #PulangMengundi (Return to Vote) initiative encouraged Malaysians to get to the polls by organizing carpools to drive voters to their stations, and even crowdfunded campaigns to subsidize travel costs for voters.
A similar initiative called #UndiRabu (Vote Wednesday) managed to raise RM200,000 (US$50,000) to pay for travel costs. According to The Star, these two initiatives collaborated with The KL Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall and 13 other organizations to rent buses to help voters return to key states.
Meanwhile, postal voters overseas went on a social media blitz late last week, ranting about not receiving their ballots on time or the forms being lost entirely. Many were angry that their ballots would not reach their Returning Officer in time to be counted. Malaysian communities in cities in Australia, New Zealand, China and the UK pitched in resources to ensure ballots were hand delivered in Malaysia, earning the moniker "The Amazing Race".
A long fight
Independent polling firm Merdeka Center predicted a small election win for Najib at 6:30 p.m. last night.
The pollster said in a press release that the ruling coalition known as the National Front or Barisan Nasional, will only garner 37.3 percent of the popular vote in peninsular Malaysia, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of parliamentary seats. The survey's estimated margin of error was ±2.46 percent.
GE14 is Najib's toughest yet and presents a potentially perfect storm for the opposition to seize power. Over the years, support for Najib has eroded amid the notorious 1MDB corruption scandal, mismanagement of Felda (Federal Land Development Authority), accusations of flagrant gerrymandering and more.
Najib and the coalition led by his United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is facing down the prime minister's former boss Dr. Mahathir Mohamad, who now spearheads the opposition alliance – Pakatan Harapan (Hope Alliance).
Support for the 92-year-old Mahathir, who last held power as prime minister himself from 1981 to 2003, is accentuated by rising costs of living, the imposition in 2014 of a Goods and Services Tax, levied at 6 percent, and a perceived lack of economic opportunities.
The Merdeka survey predicted Najib’s coalition will win 100 of the 222 parliamentary seats with Mahathir’s alliance clinching only 83 seats, while 37 seats are deemed marginal. Voter turnout will be critical in determining the outcome of the marginal seats.
The winning coalition needs to get at least 112 seats. Najib's coalition won 133 seats in the 2013 election, despite having lost the popular vote by 420,860.
Since the announcement of the polls, the opposition coalition has struck an uneasy alliance with Mahathir's new Malaysian United Indigenous Party or Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
That opposition was previously led by Mahathir's protégé Anwar Ibrahim, who is now imprisoned under a litany of controversial sodomy charges, drawn up primarily by Mahathir himself when he was trying to consolidate power for the ruling government in 1998.
Mahathir's loose coalition is also battling a former ally in PAS (Malaysian Islamic Party), whose candidates are strategically placed in multi-cornered fights for hot seats as an attempt to dilute opposition votes.
A Malay tsunami?
Najib and Mahathir gave last ditch speeches last night that were broadcast to millions live on social media. Both continue to galvanize the Malay vote, as the ethnic group makes up more than 60 percent of total voters.
The Merdeka Center found Malay voters expressed the highest concern about economic issues (46 percent), followed by good governance (17 percent), while younger voters, those below 40 years old, emphasized matters related to good governance and leadership, and voters over 40 expressed slightly higher concern over communal rights (11 percent).
The pollster anticipated that Najib himself will hang on to sufficient support from Malay voters, which coupled with his PAS ally’s ability to retain at least one quarter of the Malay vote would contribute to a win for the scandal-plagued incumbent.
PAS' splinter party – Amanah (National Trust Party) – has not made significant inroads to challenge PAS in their stronghold seats.
Ahmad Lutfi Othman, former chief editor for PAS mouthpiece Harakah but now an Amanah supporter, said Amanah is still a developing force as this is only its second general election.
“PAS and UMNO are exploiting religious issues among the Malay voters, alleging the opposition are anti-Islam and overly liberal. Religious sensitivity is still a contentious issue in Malay-majority constituencies.
“I'm optimistic change in those places will come, albeit slowly. There are many Malay voters who are beginning to see through the spin and fear-mongering,” he told The News Lens over WhatsApp.
Last night, Mahathir retreated to his home constituency of Langkawi island, and broadcast from a community hall to ask support from more than 1.2 million on Facebook and YouTube.
Despite his nonagenarian status, Mahathir did not miss a beat, manning the podium for more than an hour, playing on nostalgia and hope, reminding Malaysians they had it better during his rule.
He also lashed out at Najib, accusing him of playing money politics, corruption charges, abuse of power, religious and racial fear-mongering – the same allegations he himself is tainted with following his own turn in the hot seat as Malaysia's leader.
He ended his 53-point speech with a heartfelt plea for Malaysians to vote for change, The Sun reported, finally calling to attention the fact that. 60 years after independence, Malaysia has yet to witness a change in the ruling coalition.
Meanwhile, Najib was at Pekan, his personal fortress, where he addressed the nation. Tens of thousands were watching on social media and his speech was broadcast live on national TV.
Three pieces of “good news” made up the crux of his 30-minute speech, according to The New Straits Times. He promised youths aged 26 and below would be fully exempted from paying income tax for the 2017 assessment year.
He also announced a special two-day holiday on May 14 and 15 if his coalition wins the election, and he dangled an exemption of toll charges for five days of the Hari Raya holiday.
Sabah and Sarawak
In all the previous elections the two East Malaysia states have be termed “safety deposits” for Najib's coalition. However, much has changed in Sabah since the last election.
Shafie Apdal, another figure alienated by Najib, formed Warisan (Sabah Heritage Party) and aligned himself with the opposition. Shafie was kicked out of government by Najib in 2016 after speaking out during the 1MDB scandal.
Shafie was a favorite in his home state of Sabah even when he contested under Najib's coalition. In the last general election, he retained the Semporna parliamentary seat with a majority of 20,905 votes.
Yesterday he told news portal Malaysiakini he was “confident that the wave of change desired by the people of Sabah will reach its peak tomorrow." However, he warned of the rampant money politics at play in the state, which has 25 parliamentary seats up for grabs.
Meanwhile in Sarawak, grassroots parties have a hold on local politics and the majority of them are in Najib's coalition. Though this time, local leaders have been careful not to show too much support for Najib, instead choosing to focus on local issues.
Although it is the largest state in Malaysia, contributing 31 parliamentary seats, it is not the most populous. In previous elections, some seats have been won by Najib's coalition uncontested.
For example, Reuters reported that Sarawak's Igan is the country's smallest constituency by electorate (19,592 voters) while Bangi, an urban seat in Selangor state, is one of the biggest with 178,790 voters.
Nine of the smallest 10 parliamentary constituencies by electorate size are in Sarawak, which many critics suggest is evidence of gerrymandering that has taken place since Mahathir’s stint as prime minister.
Voters in Sarawak's rural seats are not concerned with the same issues as their counterparts in West Malaysia. The entrenched poor are focused on eking out a living, for which the ruling coalition’s election manifesto promising cash handouts, minimum wage rises and financing for basic development infrastructure is likely to play well.
Moreover, the opposition coalition hardly penetrates these areas, having won just six seats in the 2013 election.
Selangor – a consolation prize?
The richest Malaysian state – Selangor – is expected to remain an opposition stronghold, according to research firm Institute Darul Ehsan.
The firm's deputy chairman, Prof. Dr. Mohammad Redzuan Othman cited an April survey as indicating that Mahathir's opposition coalition will “win big”, citing strong support for Selangor's chief minister, opposition coalition member Mohamed Azmin Ali, as well as no clear rival from Najib's coalition and increased voter confidence, especially from Malay voters.
According to the institute's survey, Malay support for Najib in Selangor has declined to 33 percent from 39 percent, while support from the Malays for PAS has held steady at 22 percent since January. Chinese voters' support for Pakatan Harapan in Selangor surpasses 80 percent while that from Indian voters grew more than 60 percent.
Polling closes at 5 p.m. May 9 and results should start coming in at about 9 p.m.
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TNL Editor: Morley J Weston
