BALTIMORE — A wayward bounce off the crossbar in Week 3 and a fourth-down stop in Week 2. Given these hypothetical twists, the Ravens could be 0-3 instead of 2-1.
If the Denver Broncos had played an opponent with a single win in 2021, perhaps they would not be 3-0 and leading the NFL in point differential.
Based on records alone, Ravens vs. Broncos looks like an early-season showdown between AFC contenders. But how confident can we be in either team as they prepare to meet Sunday afternoon in Denver? Could this game be more a fact-finding mission than a referendum on postseason destinies?
It’s difficult to pick many nits in the Broncos’ statistical profile. Teddy Bridgewater has completed 76.8% of his passes with no interceptions, giving Denver legitimate hope for a full season of dependable quarterback play, a luxury the franchise has not enjoyed since Peyton Manning’s penultimate season in 2014. Pass rusher supreme Von Miller has returned from a lost season to lead a defense that ranks third in the NFL against the pass and second against the run. The Broncos rank fifth in DVOA, Football Outsiders’ overall measure of team efficiency; they ranked 29th in 2020.
This must be a time for mile-high euphoria as the Ravens visit the Rocky Mountains, no? Well, we have to look at the schedule. The Broncos have dominated the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, teams with a combined record of 0-10. The Jets and Jaguars, both led by rookie quarterbacks, ranked 30th and 31st in DVOA, respectively, through three weeks.
So are the Broncos a threat to the Kansas City Chiefs’ AFC West hegemony or a paper titan? They seem interested in finding out themselves with another postseason contender coming to town.
“It’s really like a playoff game early in the season,” Miller told Denver reporters. “A lot of these guys haven’t even played in a playoff game before, and that’s kind of been my message to these guys — like, this is a playoff game early in the season. This is the time for us to show what we’ve got against a worthy opponent, and that’s where our focus has been.”
The Broncos demand to be taken seriously because of their balance. They run as much as they pass on offense and feature gifted players on all three levels of their defense.
“When you’re able to run the ball, you can be as balanced as you want to be,” Ravens defensive end Calais Campbell said in assessing Denver’s offense. “So, the way we have to combat that is just by winning those early downs and winning against the run. If it’s second-and-6 or less, you can be very balanced, and you can do all the play-action. If you start getting first downs, earning first downs, then you can start throwing on first down. It’s just the way the game goes.”
On the other side of the ball, Ravens offensive linemen will have their paws full trying to keep up with the 32-year-old Miller, who has four sacks and six tackles for loss through three games after he missed the 2020 season with a dislocated tendon in his ankle. Miller has 110 career sacks, second-most among active players, though he only has half a sack in four career games against the Ravens, including the playoffs.
“The fountain of youth has been kind to him,” Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said. “You can try to do some things. Do you run at him? Do you run away from him? Do you do this? Do you do that? … I think he’s a very, very instinctive player. So, he can smell a rat pretty quick — it’s not his first rodeo.”
Even if Jackson eludes Miller’s grasp, he’ll have to be careful attacking a Broncos secondary that features a pair of excellent safeties in Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons and a potential star in rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
The Broncos defense is the best the Ravens have faced this year by almost any measure. It’s a difficult assignment for a team that’s still finding itself after a spate of devastating injuries on both sides of the ball.
“We’re getting a feel for the new guys as we go, and I think, hopefully, we can develop a real good sense of what they do well and where they flourish,” Roman said. “I think that’s a process — that doesn’t just happen overnight.”
The Ravens are still figuring out how to deploy a backfield that came together almost overnight after running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards went down with season-ending knee injuries. They’re waiting to see if Ronnie Stanley will return at left tackle as he works to rehabilitate his surgically repaired left ankle. They just welcomed wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Miles Boykin back to practice after both missed the first three weeks on injured reserve.
With Jackson leading the league in yards per completion as a passer and yards per attempt as a runner, the Ravens have been potent at times. “They have a unique style — a very, very effective style, but it is unique,” Miller said, explaining why opponents will always take the Baltimore offense seriously. “It’s led by Lamar Jackson. He can run, he can throw, he can do all types of stuff. He can shake guys in the hole and outside the hole. If you get him in space, it’s a nightmare for anybody.”
Jackson also cast off a significant albatross when he rallied his team to beat the Chiefs, 36-35, in Week 2. But whatever the Ravens are going to be on offense, we haven’t seen it yet, at least not consistently.
The same could be said on defense, where they have yet to put together a complete performance over four quarters. Again, injuries and illness have been huge parts of the story. The Ravens lost their top defensive playmaker, cornerback Marcus Peters, before the season started. Last weekend, they played the Detroit Lions without four front-seven defenders who were on the reserve/COVID-19 list. They’ll have three of those — Justin Houston, Justin Madubuike and Brandon Williams — back in Denver. But they’re still dealing with injuries to front-line players, including cornerback Anthony Averett, safety DeShon Elliott and defensive end Derek Wolfe.
“It definitely is bad luck. What else could you call it?” said cornerback Jimmy Smith, who missed the first two weeks with an ankle injury. “It’s definitely a little black cloud. You could sit and cry about it, but we still have to play.”
The Ravens have rejected the idea that they’ve run out of gas late in games, but they gave up 17 points after halftime against the Lions and 23 after halftime against the Las Vegas Raiders. They’ve yet to win decisively, something they did frequently in 2019 and 2020, when they led the league in point differential. Will more healthy bodies allow them to close stronger in Denver?
Much as the Broncos are eager to test themselves against a top-notch opponent, the Ravens are eager to see what they might become with something close to a complete roster.
“I think the core is there. The core foundation is going to be there,” Smith said. “The fact that we’ve lost so many people and kind of had our left hand tied behind our back a little bit and still being able to come out and be victorious, it just shows you what type of team we really are. So, we get all of our players back and everybody is running on full cylinders, it could be a lot better, I’m sure.”
.png?w=600)
