Myanmar's peace process is precariously poised with Panglong -- or the national peace conference as it is formally called -- set to meet in May. Several more ethnic groups -- including the Wa -- have agreed to sign the national ceasefire agreement (NCA). But, despite this, the peace process is in danger of disintegrating.
Although the third session of Panglong has now been set for May -- originally planned for January and then February -- many involved in the process are sceptical it will take place as scheduled. There are few signs of real progress and many more of division and disunity. This stop-start in negotiations belies a major rift within the process. For their part, the ethnic groups are suspicious of both the government, and more particularly the military's willingness to compromise. While the army or Tatmadaw has continued to pursue its own objectives: trying to force ethnic groups to sign the ceasefire agreement, lay down their arms and disband their military wings.
Larry Jagan is a Myanmar specialist and former BBC World Service news editor for the region.
