The US has given a cautious welcome to the election. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel told reporters initial signs from polling day were that there had not been widespread voter intimidation but warned difficult times could still be ahead.
One election after 50 plus years of military dictatorship is not going to restore democracy, but clearly this was a hell of a step forward for the democratic process in Burma. I think that the key thing now is to get through the next several weeks, which will be complicated and delicate and an important time.
The NLD claims to have swept all but 10 seats in the lower house in four of the fourteen states where results are known. These are still NLD announcements, not official results.
Yangon: 44 of the 45 lower house and all 12 upper house seats
Ayeyarwaddy: All 26 lower house seats and all 12 upper house seats
Bago: 27 of the 28 lower house seats and all 12 upper house seats
Mon: 11 of the 19 lower house seats and all 10 of the seats in the upper house
The NLD is predicting it has won in more than 97% of the first 119 seats to be counted (almost a quarter of the total). This has not been confirmed and won’t be for least several hours.
NLD stats so far. Lower House 81/83 Upper House 35/36 . They've "declared"Yangon Bago Mon. Stress that this is one party calling their wins
— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) November 9, 2015
But the celebrations are underway in Yangdon.
Kids on cars driving through Myanmar NLD rally. pic.twitter.com/g7TKOMjG3w
— Oliver Holmes (@olireports) November 9, 2015
We’re going to pause the blog for now, but we will update when more official results are announced.
Here’s a summary of where things currently stand.
- The opposition National League for Democracy has won more than 90% of the first official results, prompting celebrations among supporters in the capital Yangdon. The election commission is announcing results for all 498 seats in upper and lower houses of Myanmar in a series of rounds. So far around 50 seats have been announced, with only two going to the military backed ruling party the Union Solidarity and Development Party [USDP].
- The USDP has conceded that it has lost more seats than it won.USDP acting chairman Htay Oo, who confirmed he lost his own seat, said “We have a higher percentage of losses than wins.”
- A number of other figures USDP in are reported to have lost their seats. They include the chief minister for the Magwe region U Phone Maw Shwe, minister for the president’s office Aung Min, and the speaker Shwe Mann.
- Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has spoken of her confidence of the election result while her party officials from NLD predicted support from more than 80% of the electorate. Addressing supporters before the first official results were announced she told supporters: “I think you all have the idea”.
- US secretary of state John Kerry has congratulating Myanmar on the elections, which he said were “testament to the courage and sacrifice shown by the people of Burma over many decades”. But in a statement he said process was “far from perfect”. China has welcomed the “smooth ending” to the election.
The election commission is really stretching this out. In the third round of results it only announced 16 seats - all but three for the NLD.
9pm. 16 Lower House seats announced. NLD claims 13, USDP 2, Wa Democratic Party 1 #MyanmarElection https://t.co/MBWUSnA7f7
— DVB Multimedia Group (@DemocVoiceBurma) November 9, 2015
Myanmar Times names the sucdessful candidates from the ruling UD
#MyanmarElection Live: UEC calls Mandalay seat for the USDP's Dr. Maung Thin in Meikhtila | more coming at https://t.co/PTdDC6FiC2
— The Myanmar Times (@TheMyanmarTimes) November 9, 2015
#BREAKING #MyanmarElection Live: USDP takes another seat, as U Sai Sam wins Pyithu hluttaw seat in Mon Gyang, Shan State
— The Myanmar Times (@TheMyanmarTimes) November 9, 2015
The next official announcement will be in a couple of hours at 11pm local time (1630GMT).
And yes, more results at 11 PM!
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Up Periscope again for the third round of official results from Myanmar election commission.
LIVE on #Periscope: Results Announcement, 9 PM https://t.co/YPN45tsxVS
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
The next round of official results are expected in the next 15 minutes, but the NDP has jumped the gun by reporting victories in 44 of the 45 seats in the lower house. So far it has taken all 32 seats announced in the lower house – all in Yangon.
AP reports:
Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s party says it has won 44 of the 45 lower seats for Yangon in Myanmar’s parliamentary elections.
The National League for Democracy announced Monday that it has also swept the upper house, winning all 12 seats for Yangon, Myanmar’s biggest city.
The results were not confirmed by the government’s Election Commission, which has been releasing the results at a slow place. However, the NLD has posted representatives at counting centers who are able to give an accurate tally.
The results indicate that the NLD is heading toward a landslide victory in Sunday’s elections, and that it could expect similar outcomes from other parts of the country.
The NLD has also announced big wins in Bago, just north of Yangon according to the BBC’s Jonah Fisher.
Myanmar opposition NLD calling more results for themselves. In Bago lower house 27 of 28. All 12 Bago upper. Unofficial.
— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) November 9, 2015
Now that night has fallen many NLD supporters have made their way to the party’s Yangon headquarters, where huge screens and speakers showed the official and NLD-collected results, writes Oliver Holmes in Yangon.
Streets stalls sold red flags with golden peacocks – the NLD banner – and smaller stickers that people stuck to their faces. Children wearing red headbands were hoisted by their parents onto parked cars to get a better view over the crowds. People snacked on pineapple and melon chunks bought from stalls on wheels.
Kyaw Zaw Shwe, 48, said he left Myanmar for Singapore five years agoto find a better salary as a chemical engineer but had come back to vote.
“There has been no change in the past five years,” he said, when asked about sweeping political reforms implemented by the quasi-civilian government that took over from the military junta.
“I voted in the 1990 election,” he said, referring to polls that were won by the NLD but later annulled by the generals. “In 1990, we kept quiet. We celebrated but amongst ourselves,” he said, looking at the crowds, a rare sight in a country that suffered decades ofoppressive rule.
“Suu Kyi can lead. I believe in her, the past five years she’s been working on renovating the Rangoon hospital,” he said, using Yangon’s former name.
The man was interrupted as another man, wearing an NLD flag as a cape, walked over to him.
“Hello!” screamed the man, who identified himself as Myo Min Win.
“We were friends in Singapore because I worked their too,” Myo Min Win said. “We haven’t seen each other for years.”
They started discussing the election with vigour, both glowing red from the reflection of the giant LED screens. “I’m only 34, so I wasn’t old enough in 1990 to vote. This is the first time for me,” he told his friend.
Updated
More confident predictions by the NLD via the BBC’s Jonah Fisher.
NLD say they have won 44 or 45 lower house seats in Yangon and all 12 upper house. Unofficial but in some ways expected.
— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) November 9, 2015
NLD announce that Aung San Suu Kyi wins her constituency. Unofficial but you can put your house on it.
— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) November 9, 2015
BBC Burmese reports NLD won all upper house seats in Chin state quoting Chin media.
— Jonah Fisher (@JonahFisherBBC) November 9, 2015
NLD supporters have the victory T-shirts ready.
Smart. NLD merchandise at party HQ rally. #myanmarvotes pic.twitter.com/LDTmHmOU3i
— Oliver Holmes (@olireports) November 9, 2015
That was quick! A new NLD T-shirt appears outside the party's Yangon HQ. The old T-shirts read "We must win." pic.twitter.com/ZnoChnK0Kn
— Andrew RC Marshall (@Journotopia) November 9, 2015
It is the hardline members of the old guard who ran the junta before 2011 and treated Aung San Suu Kyi as a mortal enemy who hold the key to what happens next, writes Guardian foreign affairs columnist Simon Tisdall.
Belatedly recognising the enormous damage caused by the country’s political and economic isolation, the junta installed Thein Sein four years ago as the new, supposedly human face of Myanmar. Now they will blame his moderate reformism for their crushing defeat.
The old guard will also fear a settling of scores if their former foes and victims take power, despite Aung San Suu Kyi’s conciliatory words and non-violent approach.
General Than Shwe, the strongman leader of the junta for nearly two decades, has more to worry about than most. The regime of which he was a part committed appalling human rights abuses. According to a Human Rights Watch report on the aftermath of the 1990 election, use of torture was widespread.
Even after stepping aside in 2011, Than Shwe was widely believed to be still pulling the strings behind the scenes. He and other generals live in a secluded compound in a restricted military zone including bunkers and tunnels in Naypyitaw, the capital city he built to replace Yangon, reportedly on the advice of astrologers.
The baleful influence of the old guard aside, the fact the army still holds many political aces spells trouble for National League for Democracy and its high-profile leader.
Suu Kyi. Even if the NLD wins a large percentage of the 664 parliamentary seats, the USDP, meaning the military, will automatically retain 25% of them under the terms of the junta’s gerrymandered constitution.
Despite her apparent victory, Suu Kyi is barred from becoming president because she married a foreigner, the late Oxford historian, Michael Aris, and has two British sons.
Crucially, the military will retain several key ministerial posts despite looking set to lose the election. These portfolios include the defence, interior and border and police ministries. Under the constitution, the military can also take direct overall control of the government, including management of the economy, if it deems it necessary.
As matters stand, the military’s National Defence and Security Council is a more powerful body than parliament. Thus a NLD government would have no say, for example, if the army decided to continue attacks on ethnic minority groups and persecution of Myanmar’s disenfranchised Rohingya Muslim minority. This has led campaigners to suggest real power will remain where it has always been, despite the NLD’s success.
Managing this delicate situation will require a high degree of political skill and subtlety on Suu Kyi’s part if she is to keep the military on-side, and in barracks, while addressing Myanmar’s many divisions and problems.
Her unmatched international standing and her proud lineage, as the daughter of Aung San, Myanmar’s independence leader and founder of the Burmese army, will help. But a host of other issues, such as Buddhist chauvinism, ongoing political repression, and high poverty levels, will complicate her task.
After a quarter of a century in the wilderness, Aung San Suu Kyi looks set to have made a glorious comeback. Whatever the final election tally, she has given a memorable thrashing to the generals who persecuted her and so many others for so long. But she will not be able to govern without them.
Notable early victors include the NLD’s Naing Ngan Linn, who was injured in sword attack while out canvassing late last month in the Tharketa township on Yangon’s fringes.
The sitting MP was taken to hospital with deep gashes to his arms and face after the attack, apparently by a drunken local gang, in what the party described as the worst incident of violence during its campaign.
He was back on the campaign trail just a few days later, AFP reports.
Another NLD candidate, Saw Thura Aung, looks set to be Myanmar’s first MP with a disability according to the Irrawaddy.
Saw Thura Aung looks set to become the country’s first known lawmaker living with disability https://t.co/Qwi2uXFvZj pic.twitter.com/AOaoxw5I4n
— The Irrawaddy (@IrrawaddyNews) November 9, 2015
A number of ministers and key figures in the USDP are reported to have lost their seats.
Acting chairman of the party Htay Oo conceded that his party has lost more seats than it gained, including his own (see earlier). Others losses for the party are expected to include the chief minister for the Magwe region U Phone Maw Shwe, minister for the president’s office Aung Min, and the speaker Shwe Mann.
Local media says high-profile minister Aung Min lost to NLD in Kayah but USDP swept Meikhtila #myanmarelection https://t.co/UUbmXMGmEh
— Thin (@thinink) November 9, 2015
#MyanmarElection Live: Magwe Region Chief Minister U Phone Maw Shwe has lost his bid for regional parliament seat, according to the NLD
— The Myanmar Times (@TheMyanmarTimes) November 9, 2015
Some notable results in Myanmar: Speaker Shwe Mann, the man who ousted him as USDP leader Htay Oo & peace minister Aung Min all lost seats.
— Jonathan Head (@pakhead) November 9, 2015
China welcomes election
China has welcomed “the smooth ending” of Myanmar’s election, according to the state news agency Xinhua.
It quotes foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei as saying: “As a friendly neighbour of Myanmar, China supports Myanmar in all political agendas after the election in accordance with law so as to realise national stability and long-term development.”
However well Aung San Suu Kyi’s party does in the election, the military has no plans to allow her to become president, according to Carlo Bonura, Myanmar specialist and senior teaching fellow in Southeast Asian politics at the University of London’s Soas.
He reminds us that a constitutional provision, written by the military, excludes her from the country’s top post as those with with foreign children are barred from the office.
Speaking to BBC News Bonura said: “There are no changes on the table to enable her to take power after this election. The military has a very clear roadmap in terms of the way it perceives the transition going. And I don’t think it would be willing under any conditions to change the system to allow her to become president. She can become parliamentary speaker, however its very unlikely even with mass protests that the military will allow her to take the presidential position”.
Meanwhile in Yangon, the NLD’s supporters are hoping to hear Aung San Suu Kyi speak.
Waiting for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to address her supporters in #Yangon #Myanmar pic.twitter.com/RYLKBhPlBF
— Ted Regencia (@tedregencia) November 9, 2015
Annabelle Droulers, from DVB, continues to keep tabs on the number of women elected. She says four women from the NLD were elected in the second round of announcement after three women from the first.
BURMA ELECTION - SECOND RESULTS 4 women among the 20 successful NLD candidates #BurmaVotes2015 #MyanmarElection
— Annabelle Droulers (@BelleDroulers) November 9, 2015
Oliver Holmes in Yangon reckons the NLD has won all 32 out of 32 seats for Myanmar lower house, plus three out of four seats for the regional assemblies. But he’s out and about looking for reaction on the streets of Yangon so we’re still looking for clarification.
If the election commission continues to announced results at this pace, it’ll be days before we get a result, he warns.
Here’s Oliver roundup of the strong start for the NLD.
Updated
DVB names all 20 winners from the NLD in the latest round of results. All were from the Yangon, the city formerly named as Rangoon.
The 20 winners announced were: Tha Aung, Insein-1; Wai Phyo Han, Insein-2; Thida Maung, Yankin-1; Thein Zaw, Yankin-2; Nainggan Lin, Thaketa-1; Thet Htar Nwe Win, Thaketa-2; Han Soe, Dawpon-1; Thant Zin, Dawpon-2; Hla Thein, Tamwe-1; Thein Myint, Tamwe-2; Khin Maung Win, Pazundaung-1; Tint Lwin, Pazundaung-2; Yin Yin Myint, Ahlone-1; Nwe Nwe Win, Ahlone-2; Aye Aye Mar, Lanmadaw-1; Kyaw Tun, Lanmadaw-2; Tin Win, Kamayut-1; Lin Naing Myint, Kamayut-2; Tin Maung Tun, Dagon-1; Kyaw Zeya, Dagon-2.
Updated
The results will be strung out. The election commission has announced that we’ll have to wait three hours for the next round of results.
They are due to be made a 9pm local time (1430 GMT) it said.
Stay with us for more announcements at 9 PM #MyanmarElectionResults
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Wins for the NLD keep coming
UEC just announced results of 25 seats for Yangon Region Parliament. All won by NLD. #burma #MyanmarElection
— Thin (@thinink) November 9, 2015
Correction: that should have been 20.
CORRECTION:- UEC announced 20 seats in Yangon Regional Parliament. All won by NLD. Not 25 as originally stated. #burma #MyanmarElection
— Thin (@thinink) November 9, 2015
BURMA ELECTION: SECOND WAVE OF RESULTS NLD - 20 seats in Rangoon regional parliament USDP - nil
— Annabelle Droulers (@BelleDroulers) November 9, 2015
20 more to the NLD in Rangoon regional parliament. #MyanmarElection
— Angus Watson (@gus_watson) November 9, 2015
Just a reminder that the the NLD needs to secure 67% of seats to win power, because 25% of the seats are reserved for the military.
Updated
Thin Lei Win, chief correspondent of Myanmar Now, reports more wins for the NLD.
UEC announcing Yangon Region Parliament. So far NLD won Insein (1) (2), Yankin (1) (2), Thaketa (1) (2) #Burma #MyanmarElection
— Thin (@thinink) November 9, 2015
Cue more celebrations in Yangdon.
Thousands in street sing-along outside Aung San Suu Kyi party HQ in #Yangon #Myanmar (2nd night running) pic.twitter.com/84oLrC3CqP
— Kevin Doyle (@doyle_kevin) November 9, 2015
Updated
Up Periscope.
LIVE on #Periscope: Results Announcement, 6pm https://t.co/QMgOuuOwEu
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Mynamar’s election commission has confirmed more results will be announced at 6pm local time (11.30 GMT).
More results will be announced at 6 PM #MyanmarElectionResults
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
There’s just time to watch this Guardian documentary which explores the role of superstition in the election.
Summary
While we wait for the next set of officials results here’s a recap of what we know so far:
- The opposition National League for Democracy has won 15 of the first 16 seats declared in the official results, prompting celebrations among supporters in the capital Yangdon. More results for all 498 seats in upper and lower houses of Myanmar parliament are due to be announced in the next hour.
- The ruling military backed Union Solidarity and Development Party [USDP] has conceded that it has lost more seats than it won. USDP acting chairman Htay Oo, who confirmed he lost his own seat, said “We have a higher percentage of losses than wins.”
- Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has spoken of her confidence of the election result while her party officials from NLD predicted support from more than 80% of the electorate. Addressing supporters before the first official results were announced she told supporters: “I think you all have the idea”.
- US secretary of state John Kerry has congratulating Myanmar on the elections, which he said were “testament to the courage and sacrifice shown by the people of Burma over many decades”. But in a statement he said process was “far from perfect”.
Updated
NLD supporters are waiting in the raining for more results. Mynamar’s election commission says no more results will be announced until 6pm local time (11.30 GMT).
Updated
Regional observers have described the elections as “well-organised” according to Irrawaddy.
Dr. S. Y. Quraishi, a former chief election commissioner for India and a member of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), said: “I would like to congratulate you [UEC chairman Tin Aye] for the very successful, peaceful, transparent election.”
The observers said they were able to talk to a variety of election officials, political party agents and voters during the delegation’s three-day visit.
“The voters’ interest is really remarkable; although they had been in the queue for some hours, they were still smiling,” said Quraishi. “They said they were enjoying it and said, ‘It is like a festival for us.’”
Quraishi also cited estimates that turnout was up to 80%.
“Eighty percent is a great indicator, and there was a very happy and positive response. I think the voter education program was extremely successful. That’s contributed a lot to the positive response.”
The election was not without its flaws, he noted.
“I also found … that ballots are found in different boxes. There were some human errors that could be improved upon in the future.”
Rain has dampened NLD celebrations for now.
Massive downpour has disrupted the celebration outside the opposition NLD HQ in #Yangon #Myanmar pic.twitter.com/CCvb1mZwch
— Ted Regencia (@tedregencia) November 9, 2015
POURING with rain in Myanmar. There are going to be a lot of soaked NLD supporters at the rally this evening.
— Oliver Holmes (@olireports) November 9, 2015
Three of the 15 successful NLD candidates are women, according to Annabelle Droulers for DemocVoiceBurma.
3 women among the 15 NLD candidates announced as winners so far. #BurmaVotes2015
— Annabelle Droulers (@BelleDroulers) November 9, 2015
The NLD is predicting losses in Meiktila in the centre of the country, Irrawaddy reports.
Shwe Hla, the NLD’s campaign manager in Mandalay, said his party had lost all 4 state and division seats in Meiktila https://t.co/Qwi2uXFvZj
— The Irrawaddy (@IrrawaddyNews) November 9, 2015
Meiktila was the scene of violence between Buddhist and Muslim in 2013. Former NLD MP for Meiktila, U Win Htein, now a party spokesman, was criticised for speaking up for Muslims following the violence.
The NLD have won 15 of the first 16 seats announced so far. This is out of a total of 498 seats in the upper and lower houses of the Myanmar’s parliament. It may be a little early but NLD supporters were celebrating as the first results came in.
As results come in, NLD supporters cheering and clapping #Yangon #myanmar pic.twitter.com/g7cKjTgRRY
— Kevin Doyle (@doyle_kevin) November 9, 2015
#BREAKING #MyanmarElection 4 NLD Yangon Region seats are Thakata, Latha 1 & 2, & Seikkan 2 | sole confirmed USDP seat is Seikkan 1
— The Myanmar Times (@TheMyanmarTimes) November 9, 2015
Updated
The ruling USDP has won its first seat, according to the continuing announcement of the results.
#MyanmarElection UEC confirms polls in 17 seats, all in Yangon - 1 to USDP, & 12 lower house seats for the NLD. Full list coming soon
— The Myanmar Times (@TheMyanmarTimes) November 9, 2015
Many were expecting Yangon districts to have strong NLD support, Oliver Holmes points out in the context of the first results.
Votes from the capital it won’t tell us too much about the rest of the country. But it is certainly a boon for the NLD to have won the first results announced.
Thin Lei Win, chief correspondent of Myanmar Now, confirms the NLD won all 12 of the first seats announced, and names the constituencies. (Apologies for incorrectly describing Thin as a Reuters translator earlier).
The 12 are La Thar, Seikken, Insein, Yankin, Thaketa, Dawbon, Tamwe, Pazuntaung, Ahlone, Lanmataw, Dagon, Kamayut #MyanmarElection #Burma
— Thin (@thinink) November 9, 2015
All the seats are in the Yangon area, according to Oliver Holmes.
Breaking: Election commission chairman announces 12 seats from the lower house constituencies went to the NLD, all of them from Yangon.
— Oliver Holmes (@olireports) November 9, 2015
Updated
First official wins for NLD
The first official results confirm wins in 12 seats for the opposition NLD, according to freelance journalist Hanna Hindstrom (apologies for incorrectly describing her as a Minority Rights observer earlier).
UEC chairman Tin Aye announcing results: So far NLD has won 12 lower house seats in Yangon #BurmaVotes2015
— Hanna Hindstrom (@Hanna_Hindstrom) November 9, 2015
#MyanmarElectionResults pic.twitter.com/FZDTPGfD0C
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Reuters confirms the NLD won all 12 of the first seats announced.
Updated
Results broadcast on Periscope
Here’s a symbol of how much has changed in Myanmar – the election results are being live streamed on Periscope by the official election commission.
LIVE on #Periscope: Election Results Center opening ceremony https://t.co/qf7hH14XQx
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Updated
A NLD candidate who died last week during an rally in Sagaing, near Mandalay, is reportedly still leading polls.
Correction: Soe Myint, NLD member who died last week, was contesting the Sagaing regional assembly seat in Myinmu Township constituency-1.
— Angus Watson (@gus_watson) November 9, 2015
Announcement of first results brought forward
Myanmar’s election commission appears to have brought forward the announcement of the first results to 4pm local time (9.30 GMT). The first result had been due to be made at 6pm local time.
The very first few results will be announced at 4 PM #MyanmarElectionResults #Myanmardecides
— Results Center (@ResultsCenter) November 9, 2015
Updated
NLD supporters have been singing songs dedicated to Aung San Suu Kyi outside her opposition party headquarters in anticipation of a potential historic election victory, AP reports.
Lyrics to the song, called “The Strong Peacock,” in reference to the party’s symbol, became popular with supporters nationwide during the campaign period.
Many sang in unison as big screens erected outside the party’s Yangon office showed pictures and videos of the 70-year-old Nobel laureate and former political prisoner.
They sang: “She is the people’s leader that the whole world knows... Write your own history in your hearts for our future, so the dictatorship will end. Go, go, go (away) dictatorship.”
Suu Kyi spoke to the crowd earlier, hinting at a victory and a spokesman said the party had won about 70% of votes so far.
A partial vote count cited by Reuters shows the opposition NLD winning more than 70% of seats in parliament (not just votes). This is still unconfirmed.
Even if the NLD wins the popular vote as predicted, the country has a first-past-the-post electoral system, meaning they might still not win a majority of seats in the houses of parliament, Oliver Holmes notes.
Add that to the fact that a quarter of seats are reserved for the military and Suu Kyi’s party has a tough race.
Earlier NLD party patron Tin Oo told Nikkei Asian Review journalist, Simon Roughneen, that the part did not know what percentage of seats the party had won.
Tin Oo earlier at NLD hq. Told me 'we don't yet know exactly' what % seats NLD has won. Need 2/3's #Myanmarvotes pic.twitter.com/8vUf0dSZvx
— Simon Roughneen (@simonroughneen) November 9, 2015
Updated
The NLD has told Oliver Holmes that it is poised to declare victory but will wait for the official result.
I asked NLD spokesman U Win Htein on the phone if the NLD was ready to announce a nationwide victory: “Not yet,” he said. “We will wait until the election commission says the results this afternoon.”
Updated
Ruling party chief concedes 'more losses than wins'
Here’s video of USDP acting chairman Htay Oo conceding that his party has lost more seats than it gained. “We have a higher percentage of losses than wins,” Oo said. “The results are not yet official but we accept any outcome,” he added.
Htay Oo lost his own seat, he confirmed.
Updated
The Myanmar Times says USDP acting chairman Htay Oo was only conceding defeat in own seat, not the whole country.
As we reported here, he seemed to indicate to Reuters that the game was up across the country. I’m sure we’ll have more on this very soon.
Oliver Holmes is still at NLD headquarters in Yangon and he has been speaking to some of the party’s supporters.
With her thumbs up, Bo Bo Kyaw, says the NLD are set to win. “There will be change,” said the elderly woman who owns a hotel in Yangon. Asked about the reforms over the past few years, she said “There will never be any change in this country until Aung San Suu Kyi wins.”
Another woman, a 52-year-old company worker, said she had no interest in politics until a few years ago. “I was always so busy with my daily work.” Now she has come to the HQ with her friends, all wearing lipstick and thanaka, a ground bark paste used as sunscreen and face cream. “I want to see changes in the law. It’s not fair that if two people commit a crime, they will get different sentences depending on if they bribe police.”
Great pictures from Myanmar today which go some way towards capturing the joy and mood of celebration in the country. The NLD claims that at least 70% of voters have backed them so there are quite a lot of happy voters to smile for the cameras.
The acting chairman of Myanmar’s ruling party has thrown in the towel to Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition, Reuters reports.
Htay Oo of the Union Solidarity and Development party added that he would accept the result of the country’s first free national election in 25 years.
President Thein Sein has not said anything yet but Htay Oo is a close ally of the Myanmar strongman so his comments would appear to carry a lot of weight.
We lost. We have to find out the reason why we lost. However, we do accept the results without any reservations. We still don’t know the final results for sure.”
Htay Oo said he was surprised by the scale of his defeat in his own parliamentary constituency in Hinthada, in the delta region, considered the heartland of the USDP’s rural support base.
I wasn’t expecting it because we were able to do a lot for the people in this region. Anyway, it’s the decision of the people.
SUMMARY
The situation is moving very quickly in Myanmar so if you’re just checking in or waking up, here are the main points.
- The chairman of the ruling USPD party appears to have conceded defeat to Aung San Suu Kyi’s opposition
-
Her NLD party is on course for a landslide, it has claimed
- The party says it has won 70% of votes counted. It needs 67% of seats to win power
- Official results are due at 6pm local time (11.30GMT)
- Suu Kyi warns party to be magnanimous in victory
- ‘The whole country is happy,’ one voter said
Updated
Opposition NLD claims 80% of the votes counted in central regions
Aung San Suu Kyi’s party is now claiming 80% of the votes counted in the central regions, which would ve easily enough to put it in power if repeated across the country.
As Oliver Holmes, our man in Myanmar, says, it’s difficult to overestimate the magnitude of this.
Updated
Ruling party 'concedes defeat', says Reuters
The party chairman has conceded defeat, according to Reuters.
Updated
Even the state-backed newspaper, the Global New Light, has got in on the act with this front page.
Opposition NLD has 70% of votes so far – party spokesman
Associated Press reporting that the NLD has won 70% of votes counted so far, which would put it in power. The threshold was 67%.
Updated
The Myanmar Times is providing lots of unconfirmed results from around the country. Most of them suggest that the NLD is on course for the landslide predicted by party officials earlier.
For example, the news site points to the outcome – unofficial – in what it describes as the “key battleground” of Pyin Oo Lwin in the central Mandalay region.
It says that in the No 2 parliament seat, the region’s chief minister U Ye Myint has lost in a major upset to the NLD’s Dr Khin Maung Htay. The opposition polled 33,153 votes to U Ye Myint’s 22,808, the site says.
The Times says the NLD appears to have won narrow victories in several of the region’s other seats.
'The whole country is happy'
Many of the 30 million people eligible to vote in the elections will have been doing so for the first time after decades of harsh military rule.
This comment to an Associated Press reporter from 71-year-old Khin Maung Htay, is a nice summation of their feelings.
There is no way the NLD will lose the election. I am so happy and I am not the only person, the whole country is happy. I think she is a perfect leader for our country and a woman of perfection.
She’s not named, but I think we know who the “woman of perfection” is.
6pm timing of results confirmed
A handy tweet here from the country’s election commission confirming that the chairman will speak to the media at 3pm and election results will start being announced at 6pm. These are Myanmar timings, obviously, which is 6.5 hours ahead of GMT.
Poll 'far from perfect' – John Kerry
The US secretary of state John Kerry has released a statement congratulating Myanmar on the elections, which as we have reported, appear to have passed relatively peacefully.
He said the election was a “testament to the courage and sacrifice shown by the people of Burma over many decades”.
However he went on to say:
While these elections were an important step forward, we recognise that they were far from perfect. There remain important structural and systemic impediments to the realisation of full democratic and civilian government, including the reservation of a large number of unelected seats for the military; the disfranchisement of groups of people who voted in previous elections, including the Rohingya; and the disqualification of candidates based on arbitrary application of citizenship and residency requirements.
The United States, along with the domestic and international observers, has closely monitored the electoral process. We will continue to watch the vote counting process, and encourage all parties to help ensure the tabulation is transparent and credible and any complaints are addressed promptly, transparently, and appropriately.
We encourage the political leaders in the country to work together in the spirit of national unity and democratic reform to seek what is best for the country. A peaceful post-election period is crucial for stability and maintaining the confidence of the people in the credibility of the electoral process and the overall political transition.
More from Oliver Holmes, who is at the NLD headquarters in Yangon. It sounds like a very colourful scene. Seems scarcely possible given that not long ago Suu Kyi was under house arrest by a military junta that had turned the country into an international pariah:
Anyway, here’s Oliver’s description of the scene:
I’m at the NLD headquarters in Yangon, where there’s a crowd of sweating people wearing red t-shirts with the golden peacock of the NLD on it. Music is blaring from large speakers.
There were thousands here last night waiting for Aung San Suu Kyi but she never appeared and made an unexpected speech earlier today to a small group.
It feels like a celebration here, even though the election results will not be officially announced until much later this evening. Cars are still running along the road, some of their passengers waving as they go by.
As promised, here’s more on how the election will work.
The army, which has ruled Myanmar for decades, is guaranteed a certain number of seats in parliament.
There were more than 6,000 candidates and 91 registered political parties competing for 498 seats for five-year terms in the upper and lower houses of the Hluttaw, Myanmar’s parliament. But the main battle is between the NLD and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP).
Suu Kyi’s NLD party must take 67% of all contested seats in order to gain a majority. If her party does that and forms a government, it will be the first democratically elected one since the early 1960s.
Here’s Oliver’s explainer from a few days ago if you would like to read more.
NLD to complain over count procedure
U Win Htein said the voting procedure had been changed at the last minute so
that votes were sent to the capital and not first announced at townships. He said the NLD had filed a complaint.
We have filed a complaint to the election commission as it is against the law. We should have known results last night.
NLD expects landslide
Oliver Holmes in Yangon has just spoken to a National League for Democracy spokesman, U Win Htein, who said:
According to our initial information collected from townships, we are winning by 80%.
Much of the counting had already taken place, he added.
More on exactly what means and the mechanics of the election in a moment.
Suu Kyi addresses supporters
Addressing supporters from a platform in Yangon a short time ago, Suu Kyi said that the results would not be announced soon, “but I think you all have the idea” of the results.
It is still a bit early to congratulate our candidates who will be the winners.
She then added a warning that her party should be gracious in victory:
I want to remind you all that even candidates who didn’t win have to accept the winners but it is important not to provoke the candidates who didn’t win to make them feel bad.
Good afternoon/morning, and welcome to the live blog on the Myanmar elections in which the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has hinted that she expects her National League for Democracy party to score a convincing victory.
The latest take from our reporter Oliver Holmes in the country’s main city of Yangon – formerly Rangoon – is here.
More from Oliver soon and those comments from Suu Kyi. But the main points so far are:
- The opposition NLD is confident of winning the most seats
- The first results were expected at 9am local time but have been delayed until 6pm
- The chair of the election commission will give a media conference at 3pm
- The final tally is not expected until Tuesday