A picture that Academy voters can clutch to their hearts... Little Miss Sunshine
Punters at this year's Oscars should be cautious. It seems to me that there are no outstanding films this year - in which case, several categories are very hard to rank.
Start with best picture: Babel won the Golden Globe, it is the kind of we-are-all-one-world movie that pleased the Academy enough to make Crash a surprise winner - it could happen again.
The Departed will win best director for Martin Scorsese. And that means his picture will be considered a runner in the best picture race. The Departed is a legitimate, entertaining picture, so give it to him now. In turn, that means, don't waste too much time on the picture.
Letters From Iwo Jima would have taken best picture in the previous century - it is honorable, decent and well-made in an old-fashioned way. But the public showed not the least inclination to see it, and I don't think the Academy will go against that.
Little Miss Sunshine is adored by everyone - my 11-year-old, when he was only 10, was telling the world, "There can't be anything better than this." In a field where all five films could get at least 15% of the vote each, Little Miss Sunshine could sneak up on the rails. So could The Queen - though in that case the best actress award has been assigned to Helen Mirren for some months, and that can persuade Academy voters that they've already done their duty.
So, best picture? It's Babel or Little Miss Sunshine. I pick LMS. (My son has just fainted - he believed he had an idiot for a father.)
On to the other prizes. Best director? Scorsese. Forget The Departed. Just say, Mean Streets, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull as he accepts.
Supporting actor? I'd give it to Mark Wahlberg who is outstanding in The Departed. But I think it will go to Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls.
Supporting actress? The two contenders from Babel cancel each other out. I think Jennifer Hudson was a showstopper in Dreamgirls. But how can anyone overlook Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada? I know why she is nominated so often. Because she's the best.
Best actress? It has to be Helen Mirren.
Best actor? I think it comes down to a choice between Forest Whitaker playing Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland and Peter O'Toole playing a version of himself in Venus.
This will be O'Toole's eighth nomination. A few years ago, he won an honorary Oscar, and he said then that he would have preferred to win in competition. Here is the Academy's chance. It is a great performance and I'd feel confident about his chances but for the nagging undertone in America that Venus is a film that celebrates a dirty old man.
It's amazing. The Departed is a film that cheerfully describes slaughter - and that's OK by me. Venus is a wondrous study of an old man and a tough young slut getting a bit of education together as he dies and she shows him her breasts. O'Toole should win - which is no shame on Whitaker. But Venus is not a film - like Little Miss Sunshine - that this shaky nation can clutch to its heart.
Best foreign language picture? The Lives of Others (actually the best film of the year). Best animation? Happy Feet.
Most misguided omissions - those of Hanif Kureishi, Roger Michell, Leslie Phillips and Jodie Whittaker on Venus; nothing for Children of Men; no Toby Jones or Douglas McGrath for Infamous. And no notice given to A Cock and Bull Story. (My son has collapsed again!)
