Amid the hype over her acclaimed performance as Diana, Princess of Wales in Spencer, Kristen Stewart briefly stopped awards pundits dead in their tracks when, upon being asked about her Oscar buzz, she drily admitted, “I don’t give a shit.” Sacrilege! Some of the best films and performances of all time haven’t been considered by the Academy, she continued. “There’s five spots. What the fuck are you going to do?”
Nobody disagrees with Stewart on any of this: just ask our critics, whose ideal Oscar ballots below are knowingly far from the expected reality of next week’s nominations. That the actor’s comments made showbiz headlines anyway speaks to the strange aura the Oscars maintain as a gold standard of cinematic achievement: for several months a year, people fret and discuss and strategise about them, while companies expensively campaign for them, only to spend the rest of the year complaining that they don’t mean anything anyway. Even Stewart’s scepticism emerged while on the campaign trail, being interviewed on a Variety podcast named Awards Circuit. Should she win for Spencer, she’ll doubtless turn up and give a humbly grateful speech anyway. That’s the game. Nobody gives a shit about the Oscars, after all, except when everyone does.
Here, then, are our critics’ picks of who and what should be on those Oscars shortlists. Guy Lodge
Mark Kermode, Observer film critic
Best picture – my shortlist (my winner first)
PETITE MAMAN
Summer of Soul
The Green Knight
Titane
Censor
Céline Sciamma’s Petite Maman rekindled my faith in the universal power of cinema. Summer of Soul was a revelation that has been shortlisted for the documentary feature award. Meanwhile, Julia Ducournau’s Palme d’Or winner Titane bizarrely failed to make the best international feature selection. The bookies favour The Power of the Dog for best film, but Belfast has the popular touch.
Best director
CÉLINE SCIAMMA – PETITE MAMAN
Julia Ducournau – Titane
Guillermo del Toro – Nightmare Alley
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Prano Bailey-Bond – Censor
The real-world title fight seems to be between Jane Campion and Kenneth Branagh, with Siân Heder a possibility for Coda. My award would go to either Céline Sciamma, who has barely put a foot wrong since 2007’s Water Lilies, Julia Ducournau, for her thrillingly confident follow-up to Raw, or Guillermo del Toro, who previously won for The Shape of Water.
Best actress
JENNIFER HUDSON – RESPECT
Agathe Rousselle – Titane
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Niamh Algar – Censor
British writer and director Aleem Khan’s terrific After Love is not eligible for this year’s Oscars – if it were, Joanna Scanlan would be in my list. Of those actually in the running, Jennifer Hudson was born to play Aretha Franklin, although Respect fails to live up to her barnstorming central performance. Special mention to Agathe Rousselle for her fearless turn in Titane.
Best actor
DEV PATEL – THE GREEN KNIGHT
Will Smith – King Richard
Riz Ahmed – Mogul Mowgli
Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Hidetoshi Nishijima – Drive My Car
Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield seem to be Oscar frontrunners. A statuette for Smith (who’s been nominated twice before) would be deserved. My picks include the endlessly versatile Dev Patel for The Green Knight and Riz Ahmed (who should have won for Sound of Metal last year) for Mogul Mowgli, which didn’t open in the US until 2021.
Best supporting actress
KATHRYN HUNTER – THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Martha Plimpton – Mass
Ann Dowd – Mass
There are lots of things wrong with Joel Coen’s visually striking but dramatically inert The Tragedy of Macbeth, yet Kathryn Hunter’s astonishingly physical performance elevates the project. Ariana DeBose steals the show in Spielberg’s West Side Story with a performance that is full of energy and wit, while Aunjanue Ellis proves the perfect foil for Will Smith in King Richard.
Best supporting actor
VINCENT LINDON – TITANE
Jason Isaacs – Mass
Reed Birney – Mass
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Reece Shearsmith – In the Earth
The ensemble cast of Mass seems to have been largely overlooked by the major awards – a tragedy since they are superb. I’ve nominated all four in my supporting actress/actor picks. My list also includes Reece Shearsmith in a film that most Oscar voters won’t have seen or even heard of. But it’s Vincent Lindon’s transformative turn in Titane that takes top prize.
Best original score
JONNY GREENWOOD – SPENCER
Daniel Hart – The Green Knight
Robert Aiki Aubrey Lowe – Candyman
Germaine Franco – Encanto
Jeymes Samuel – The Harder They Fall
Depressingly, the 15-strong Oscar shortlist (from which I’ve drawn my picks) includes only one female composer: Germaine Franco. My favourite score of 2021 was Eiko Ishibashi’s heartbreakingly beautiful music for Drive My Car, alongside Nainita Desai’s score for The Reason I Jump, (which isn’t eligible). Jonny Greenwood is a favourite for The Power of the Dog, but his score for Spencer gets my vote.
Wendy Ide
Best picture – my shortlist (my winner first)
THE LOST DAUGHTER
The Power of the Dog
Zola
The Worst Person in the World
Red Rocket
It has been a thrilling year for cinema, with a wealth of bold, daring visions staking a claim on the big screen. Not that you would necessarily know it to look at this year’s best picture frontrunners. Rather than some of the safer options, I would love to see Janicza Bravo’s nerve-jangling road trip Zola get a nomination or Sean Baker’s grubby, funny Red Rocket. But my pick would be Maggie Gyllenhaal’s sinuous, unsettling debut, The Lost Daughter.
Best director
JANE CAMPION – THE POWER OF THE DOG
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Joanna Hogg – The Souvenir Part II
Janicza Bravo – Zola
Sean Baker – Red Rocket
Great direction isn’t just about the showy flex of the big-budget spectacle. For me, one of the most intriguing and satisfying pieces of work this year was the playfully mercurial introspection of Joanna Hogg’s The Souvenir Part II. But my pick for the top prize is Jane Campion, for her emotionally attuned and assured direction of The Power of the Dog.
Best actress
OLIVIA COLMAN – THE LOST DAUGHTER
Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World
Tessa Thompson – Passing
Agathe Rousselle – Titane
It’s hard to pick a favourite in this category. How to choose between the guarded self-possession of Tessa Thompson in Passing and the serrated intensity of Agatha Rousselle in Titane? Renate Reinsve’s magnetism in The Worst Person in The World and Alana Haim’s glorious delivery of the line: “Fuck off, teenagers”? Ultimately, however, it has to be Olivia Colman’s endlessly fascinating performance in The Lost Daughter for the win.
Best actor
HIDETOSHI NISHIJIMA – DRIVE MY CAR
Joaquin Phoenix – C’mon C’mon
Simon Rex – Red Rocket
Riz Ahmed – Encounter
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
The best acting doesn’t necessarily mean the most acting. In the best actor category, I have found myself drawn to reined-in, introspective performances that seduce the audience rather than assault them with a firework display of emotional range. Joaquin Phoenix in C’mon, C’mon is a rumpled, rueful pleasure. But it’s the rare delicacy of Hidetoshi Nishijima’s work in Drive My Car that has stayed with me.
Best supporting actress
RUTH NEGGA – PASSING
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Ann Dowd – Mass
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Gaby Hoffman – C’mon, C’mon
Ariana DeBose is looking like a frontrunner in this category and deservedly so: she is electrifying in West Side Story. Jessie Buckley, once again demonstrating that she’s one of the most exciting actors of her generation, could take the prize for The Lost Daughter. But I would love to see Ruth Negga win for her magnetic and treacherous charisma in Passing.
Best supporting actor
KODI SMIT-MCPHEE – THE POWER OF THE DOG
Vincent Lindon – Titane
Woody Norman – C’mon, C’mon
Richard Ayoade – The Souvenir Part II
Jason Isaacs – Mass
There’s a certain elasticity in the definition of what constitutes a great supporting turn – is it something like Richard Ayoade’s performance in The Souvenir Part II, which leaves an unforgettable impression from just a handful of scenes? Or a performance like Kodi Smit-McPhee’s – my pick this year – in The Power of the Dog, which is an essential component of the film’s slippery sensuality?
Best international feature
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Drive My Car
Compartment No 6
Prayers for the Stolen
Playground
The Parasite effect has refocused attention on the international feature category, which can only be a good thing. I hope that smaller titles, such as Laura Wandel’s riveting Playground and Tatiana Huezo’s Prayers for the Stolen reach a wider audience as a result. But my pick for the win is Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World, a joy of a movie that embraces the chaos and charm of its central character.
Simran Hans
Best picture – my shortlist (my winner first)
THE SOUVENIR PART II
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Lost Daughter
Zola
The Souvenir Part II deserves international acclaim; it has been criminally overlooked by awarding bodies here in the UK, missing out on Bafta’s best film and best British film longlists. It’s about those first, tentative green shoots of creative confidence, made by a director whose talent and authority are finally in full bloom. The film is heartbreakingly poignant and my clear winner.
Best director
JANICZA BRAVO – ZOLA
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall – Passing
Joanna Hogg – The Souvenir Part II
Janicza Bravo’s bravura vision transforms a viral Twitter thread into an entire world, bringing visual wit, an arch sense of humour and a distinctly feminine point of view to what might, in the wrong hands, feel like tawdry sleaze. Hollywood can feel like a bit of a desert when it comes to new ideas; Bravo is one of several female directors whose perspective feels like an enlivening, ice-cold glass of water.
Best actress
ALANA HAIM – LICORICE PIZZA
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Jodie Comer – The Last Duel
Taylour Paige – Zola
Honor Swinton Byrne – The Souvenir Part II
I hope Alana Haim goes on to have a long and successful career. Paul Thomas Anderson has a way of bringing out the best in his actors, which feels even more miraculous given this is the pop star’s film debut. She’s endearingly gawky and naturally intelligent, with a flirtatious quality that translates beautifully on screen. An Oscar nomination would certainly put her on more film-makers’ radars.
Best actor
HIDETOSHI NISHIJIMA – DRIVE MY CAR
Anders Danielsen Lie – The Worst Person in the World
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza
Denzel Washington – Macbeth
Not a vintage year in the best actor category, which will probably see a familiar Hollywood face collect another gong to add to their collection. The Academy’s bias towards English-language films doesn’t help Hidetoshi Nishijima’s case, but he’s a cut above the rest in Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car. He’s subtly brilliant as a man whose placid exterior hides stinging grief.
Best supporting actress
RUTH NEGGA – PASSING
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Kathryn Hunter – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Tôko Miura – Drive My Car
All five of these actors outshine their co-stars, despite the smaller size of their roles. Forget West Side Story’s main character, Maria – she’s a charisma vacuum compared to Ariana DeBose’s Anita. Kathryn Hunter is an obvious frontrunner for her memorably twisted turn as the witches in The Tragedy of Macbeth, but for sheer star wattage I have to champion Ruth Negga’s luminous performance in Passing.
Best supporting actor
MIKE FAIST – WEST SIDE STORY
Richard Ayoade – The Souvenir Part II
Colman Domingo – Zola
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon
I’m crossing my fingers for Mike Faist, whose ferocious bad-boy bite gives him the edge in the otherwise respectable West Side Story. Equally deserving, though, would be the giddying, sharply tuned comic performances given by Richard Ayoade and Colman Domingo, Kodi Smith-McPhee’s slinking intelligence, on display in The Power of the Dog or the emotionally translucent 11-year-old Woody Norman in C’mon C’mon.
Best documentary
PROCESSION
Ascension
Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry
Faya Dayi
Flee
This category is voted for by a specialist documentary branch; its shortlist of 15 has been announced, and happily, some of their more leftfield choices overlap with my own. I’d love to see something formally experimental rewarded, like Faya Dayi, Jessica Beshir’s trancelike exploration of the stimulant khat, or Procession, Robert Greene’s creative collaboration with six survivors of child abuse in the Catholic church.
Guy Lodge
Best picture – my shortlist (my winner first)
DRIVE MY CAR
The Green Knight
Moffie
Procession
The Souvenir Part II
After a surprise sweep of the major US critics’ awards, Drive My Car, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s languid, longing meditation on grief, companionship and Chekhov is now a dark horse for a best picture nomination, potentially disrupting what otherwise looks to be an all-English-language lineup. With bland titles such as Belfast and Coda seen as sure things, there’s really no excuse for it not to make the cut.
Best director
TATIANA HUEZO – PRAYERS FOR THE STOLEN
Janicza Bravo– Zola
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Julia Ducournau – Titane
Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter
Having struggled to limit my best picture selections to five in a strong and diverse year, I opted to pick five completely different films for best director. All are distinctive visions from female film-makers working at a high level of risk and formal daring, none more so than Salvadoran-Mexican doc-maker Tatiana Huezo, whose devastating first fiction film blends socially conscious realism with earthy poetry.
Best actress
RUTH NEGGA – PASSING
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Rebecca Hall – The Night House
Tôko Miura – Drive My Car
Tessa Thompson – Passing
Ruth Negga has been categorised as a supporting actress in Rebecca Hall’s exquisite directorial debut, but I disagree: even if she has less screen time than the excellent Tessa Thompson, her magnetic performance as a white-passing black woman in 1920s New York City is the film’s thematic linchpin. Hall, meanwhile, makes the cut for her film-elevating turn in the underrated horror The Night House.
Best actor
BRADLEY COOPER – NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Yuriy Borisov – Compartment No 6
Hidetoshi Nishijima – Drive My Car
Simon Rex – Red Rocket
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Bradley Cooper has quietly racked up eight Oscar nominations in various categories, without winning any of them. This isn’t looking like his year either, despite a pair of superb performances in very different registers. His all-American slickness is subverted to intense, dark-souled effect in Nightmare Alley, while his brief, delightfully gonzo turn in Licorice Pizza (see below) provides impressive contrast.
Best supporting actress
JESSIE BUCKLEY – THE LOST DAUGHTER
Ana De Armas – No Time to Die
Gaby Hoffmann – C’mon C’mon
Charlotte Rampling – Benedetta
Suzanna Son – Red Rocket
Only twice in Oscar history have two actors been nominated for playing the same character in one film: both times, Kate Winslet (in Titanic and Iris) was one of the beneficiaries. Buckley deserves to muscle in on that stat: playing the younger version of a peak-form Olivia Colman, she subtly but uncannily echoes the physical and unravelling psychological presence of her older counterpart.
Best supporting actor
ANDERS DANIELSEN LIE – THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Richard Ayoade – The Souvenir Part II
Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
Colman Domingo – Zola
Jared Leto – House of Gucci
Last year, Minari’s Youn Yuh-jung became the first actor since Marion Cotillard in 2007 to win an Oscar for a wholly non-English-language performance; even as the Academy diversifies, Anglocentric bias is the norm. As the broken heart of Joachim Trier’s lovely reflection on millennial ennui, Norwegian actor Danielsen Lie — who maintains a career as a medical doctor between films — deserves to buck the trend.
Best original screenplay
JOANNA HOGG – THE SOUVENIR PART II
Amalia Ulman – El Planeta
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch – Red Rocket
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt – The Worst Person in the World
Dubiously, Academy rules define all sequels as adaptations, though Joanna Hogg isn’t drawing on anything other than her own experience and imagination in her dazzling self-portrait of the artist as a young woman. Bafta absurdly left The Souvenir Part II off a 20-title longlist for best British film; I’m not expecting the Academy to notice it either, though it’s a masterwork just the same.
