The four-way regular-season tie in the conference standings between the Rebels, Broncos, Aztecs, and Lobos needed to be decided by average rankings, using the metrics of Connelly SP+, ESPN SOR, KPI, and SportSource.
When all was said and done, the computers gave UNLV an average national ranking of 45.5, Boise State 47.75, San Diego State 51.00, and New Mexico 54.75. Consequently, Boise State will host, thanks to their 56-31 head-to-head win over the Rebels on October 18th.
Sadly, the third consecutive meeting between the two teams for MW supremacy will also be the last. With Boise State and San Diego State heading to the Pac-12 next season, UNLV and New Mexico will vie to carry the banner for the Mountain West.
But nostalgia and the convoluted tiebreaker process aside, what will happen when BSU and UNLV tee it up on Friday night?
UNLV Rebels at Boise State Broncos
Friday, December 5th
5:00 PM PT, FOX
Jason Benetti, Robert Griffin III, and Alexa Landestoy
Line: Boise State -3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 58.5
The Broncos are 8-0 all-time in the series at home. Moreover, Boise State has won each of the last ten meetings between the schools, a streak that dates to 1976.
But while the Rebels have struggled in Boise—as many other teams have—the Rebels are 15-4 in true road games since the start of 2023.
The big news here is the return of Boise State starting quarterback Maddux Madsen, who has been almost unbeatable in home games against MW opponents in his career.
In BSU’s regular-season win over UNLV this year, Madsen threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns, adding 23. yards on the ground.
This will be the signal-caller’s first game since his ankle injury four weeks ago.
Max Cutforth had a big game last week, but Madsen should give the Broncos a bit more in the running game. We will see how effective he’ll be with his legs coming off his rehab.
The Rebels have not been impressive against the run this season, allowing 175.5 rushing yards per game. In the prior loss to Boise State, they allowed 294 yards on the ground.
In the five games since that defeat, UNLV is 4-1, having limited opponents to 134.6 yards rushing. If the Rebels are to leave Boise with a win, they will need to slow down a rushing attack that is averaging 189.8 yards per game.
Offensively, the Rebels have been extremely efficient on the ground this season, ranking 17th nationally with 204.7 rushing yards per game.
They rushed for 261 yards in the first meeting, the third-highest output the Broncos allowed this season, and one of five games in which BSU allowed 200 yards or more on the ground.
Needless to say, this one will be won and lost in the trenches. Whichever team has more success slowing down the running game will have the edge.
But both teams can sling the ball around.
UNLV ranks 35th in passing yards nationally, throwing for 258.6 yards per game, and Anthony Colandrea has averaged 286.4 passing yards in the last five games.
Boise State will not make it easy for the Rebels to move the ball through the air. The Broncos’ pass defense is 11th in the nation, limiting opponents to just 167.1 yards per game.
This one will be fun to watch and figures to come down to the wire.
I look for a more competitive game than in their first meeting, but as with that matchup, I expect the Broncos to get the win.
Boise State could make the Rebels one-dimensional on offense, which will be the difference.
Outright winner: Boise State
Against the Spread: Boise State
Over/Under: Over
