Each week, HoopsHype ranks the Top 10 candidates for this season’s Most Valuable Player award. This list highlights stars who are performing at an elite level and putting themselves in the mix for the award.
With just over 20 games remaining, it’s becoming clear who has a legitimate shot at the MVP trophy. Here are our latest rankings:
10. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
STATS: 27.3 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.9 bpg, 48.2 FG%
The Sixers are currently 39-22, which puts them in the East’s fourth seed. However, after the midseason acquisitions of Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanović and James Ennis, this team is better than their record indicates and nobody will want to run into them come playoff time.
The talent around Embiid may actually be hurting his MVP candidacy since voters may feel he has more help than the current front-runners. Fair or not, that may be why Embiid isn’t getting more MVP love. It’s a good problem to have, though, and how far Philadelphia can advance this postseason will likely come down to how quickly they can jell and get everyone on the same page.
Embiid has been excellent this season and, as he deals with a sore left knee, teammates have pointed out how much they’ve missed him over the last three games that he’s sat out. Fortunately, his MRI showed there is no structural damage and he’s expected to return relatively soon.
9. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
STATS: 26.0 ppg, 6.4 apg, 4.6 rpg, 1.2 spg, 44.7 FG%
The Portland Trail Blazers have won five straight games and they’re currently sitting in the Western Conference’s fourth seed. Lillard has been terrific all season, filling the stat sheet and playing some of the most efficient basketball of his career.
And throughout the last month and a half, the four-time All-Star has elevated his game to another level as he carries the Blazers. Over the last 16 games, Lillard is averaging 26.4 points, 7.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 2.7 made threes.
Lillard is often mentioned as a possible target for big-market teams who are looking to add a star since he’s in a small market and he’s the kind of player who can push a team into contention. However, he has made it abundantly clear that he wants to remain in Portland for the long haul (as evidenced by this quote compilation that we put together):
8. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
STATS: 26.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 7.8 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.0 3PTs, 51.1 FG%
It’s strange to see LeBron James this low on a Most Valuable Player ranking, but the Los Angeles Lakers are currently in the Western Conference’s 10th seed and missing the playoffs is a realistic concern at this point.
The Lakers are three games back from the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers and one game behind the Sacramento Kings, who are playing well and determined to end their 12- season playoff drought.
If we’re being honest, James lost his shot at winning this year’s MVP award when he got injured during the Lakers’ Christmas Day game against the Golden State Warriors. While his stats have been impressive, as usual, he’s only played in 43 contests this season.
Had James stayed healthy and kept the Lakers in the West’s fourth or fifth seed, perhaps he’d still be in the mix. However, that didn’t happen and this year’s field is too strong for James to receive serious consideration now.
7. Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors
STATS: 26.8 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.8 spg, 1.7 3PTs, 49.0 FG%
The Raptors are being very cautious with Kawhi Leonard’s minutes, not only resting him on the second night of back-to-backs but also holding him out of some random contests to restrict his playing time.
Toronto is currently 45-17, which is the second-best record in the East, and their primary concern is entering the playoffs at full strength so they can make a deep run. If the Raptors aren’t able to make a lot of noise this postseason, they may have to worry about Leonard bolting in July when he hits free agency. Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports was recently a guest on The HoopsHype Podcast and of all the star free agents available this summer, he’s most intrigued to see how Leonard’s situation plays out.
“I think the Clippers have a really good shot at Kawhi. I really do,” Haynes said. “Give credit to that front office over there and the way they’ve changed the culture… It depends on how things play out in Toronto. I think they really have to, if not win the championship, [at least] get to the NBA Finals to kind of cure the concern. That’s going to be really interesting. I’m looking forward to how [Leonard’s free agency] is going to play out – probably even more so than Kevin Durant’s.”
6. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
STATS: 28.3 ppg, 5.3 apg, 5.2 rpg, 5.2 3PTs, 44.2 3P%
At this point, Stephen Curry is more focused on his ring collection than his Most Valuable Player collection. In a recent interview with Vincent Goodwill of Yahoo Sports, he talked about how challenging it is to repeat as NBA champs year after year.
“[I didn’t know] how hard this is,” Curry said. “We always talk about how hard it is to win games [and win] championships. Everybody thinks that’s just putting the ball in the basket. Many a team, many a championship run, has been derailed by egos and mismatched personalities and drama that never got solved. It’s unfortunate, but we’re not gonna be that situation.”
Earlier this season, Curry played a huge role in deescalating the drama between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green – essentially serving as a mediator. When you factor in Curry’s impact on and off the court, a strong case can be made that he does more for his team than any other NBA star. However, everyone’s definition of “Most Valuable Player” is different and, knowing how the voters think, Curry is a long shot to actually win the award as long as he’s playing with a fellow MVP candidate in Durant.
5. Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
STATS: 27.5 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.9 3PTs, 1.2 bpg, 51.4 FG%
As HoopsHype colleague Frank Urbina recently pointed out in his Top-30 players over 30 years old article, Stephen Curry led Golden State in swing rating during Kevin Durant’s first two seasons with the team. Now, for the first time, Durant has surpassed Curry in this category.
Curry continues to make a huge impact, obviously, with a swing rating of +11.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. However, Durant’s swing rating is an insane +19.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s in the game.
But, again, it’s unlikely that either Warrior will win this year’s MVP award because they’ll cost each other votes. That’s the downside of being on a star-studded super-team – you don’t get the same credit as the guys who are carrying their team (like the next four players on our list).
4. Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
STATS: 20.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 7.7 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.1 3PTs, 50.3 FG%
The Denver Nuggets refuse to come back down to Earth. All season, doubters have been waiting for Denver to slide in the West standings, but the Nuggets don’t show any signs of slowing down. In fact, they’ve won five-straight games and, at 42-18, they’re just a half game behind the Golden State Warriors for the top seed in the West.
Nikola Jokic is the main reason for their sustained success, as he elevates the play of his teammates with his excellent passing and he can put the ball in the basket when Denver needs him to take over. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jokic eventually average a triple-double over the course of a season. While Russell Westbrook has normalized this, it would still be incredibly impressive – especially for a center.
Jokic is going to have a hard time moving any higher on this list because the Top-3 MVP candidates have seemingly separated themselves from the rest of the pack. But keep in mind, Jokic just turned 24 years old last week. He’s still developing and tapping into his potential, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NBA.
3. Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder
STATS: 28.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.3 APG, 3.9 3PTS, 2.3 SPG
For much of the season, it seemed this would end up being a two-man MVP race. James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the front-runners and there was a significant gap between those two and everybody else. Then, Paul George changed that with the way he’s played over the last two months.
Over George’s last 30 games, he’s averaging 32.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 4.4 threes and 2.4 steals, while shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 41.4 percent from three. George is dominating on both ends of the court and his productivity has translated into wins, as the Thunder are now 38-22 (which is the third-best mark in the West).
He’s had several signature games that helped his MVP candidacy. Recently, he had the following jaw-dropping performances in a four-game span:
- Feb. 9: 45 points, 11 boards, 6 threes in W vs. HOU
- Feb. 11: 47 points, 12 boards, 10 assists, 8 threes in W vs. POR
- Feb. 22: 45 points, 9 boards, 7 assists, 0 TOs in W vs. UTA
George is now a legitimate MVP candidate with a realistic shot of the winning the award if he finishes the season strong.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
STATS: 27.0 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 5.9 apg, 1.5 bpg, 1.4 spg, 58.1 FG%
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been so consistently terrific this season that super-human performances are almost expected from him at this point. With that said, there is one big difference between his early-season play and his recent dominance: Giannis seems much more comfortable shooting the ball.
Over the last 12 games, Antetokounmpo is making 1.3 threes per game on 39.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. He’s been even more efficient over the last seven games, hitting 1.4 threes on 50 percent shooting from long range.
It’s clear that Antetokounmpo is gaining confidence in his stroke. During the first 34 games of the season, he had just one game with multiple made threes (he hit 2-of-4 against the Chicago Bulls in November).
In the last 23 games, Giannis has six games with multiple made threes. He shot 3-of-3 against the Washington Wizards, 3-of-4 against the Minnesota Timberwolves, 3-of-5 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and 3-of-5 against the Toronto Raptors.
Also, the Bucks have the NBA’s best record at 47-14, which certainly helps his case for the award. Milwaukee has won 11-straight games (and 17 of their last 18 contests) with Giannis in the lineup.
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
STATS: 36.2 ppg, 7.6 apg, 6.6 rpg, 2.1 spg, 4.9 3PTs, 43.8 FG%
After 32 consecutive games with at least 30 points, James Harden’s streak finally came to an end this week. Harden’s 30-point streak goes down as the second-longest in NBA history, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain (who had 30 points in 65 straight games in 1961-62).
What Harden has been able to do since mid-December is remarkable, putting the Rockets on his back and helping them climb from second-to-last in the West to the fifth seed. Houston’s turnaround started 34 games ago; during that span, Harden has averaged 40.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 5.4 threes and 2.2 steals per game.
With that said, it’s worth noting that Harden has been shooting the ball very poorly as of late. Over his last six games, he’s shooting just 39.6 percent from the field and 26.7 percent from three-point range. Here are some of his recent shooting performances:
- 11-of-28 from the field (and 6-of-16 from three) in a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder
- 9-of-23 from the field (and 6-of-17 from three) in a win over the Dallas Mavericks
- 7-of-21 from the field (and 0-of-10 from three) in a win over the Atlanta Hawks
- 10-of-29 from the field (and 1-of-11 from three) in a win over the Charlotte Hornets.
If Harden can’t bounce out of this recent shooting slump, that will create an opening for Giannis Antetokounmpo or Paul George to pass him during the final stretch of the MVP race.
